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Cold Warrior
06-22-2008, 09:59 AM
May you live in interesting times
May you come to the attention of those in authority
May you find what you are looking for
- Chinese Proverb and Curse


Everything seemingly is spinning out of control
By ALAN FRAM and EILEEN PUTMAN, Associated Press Writers
Sat Jun 21, 3:14 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Is everything spinning out of control?

Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism.

Horatio Alger, twist in your grave.

The can-do, bootstrap approach embedded in the American psyche is under assault. Eroding it is a dour powerlessness that is chipping away at the country's sturdy conviction that destiny can be commanded with sheer courage and perseverance.

The sense of helplessness is even reflected in this year's presidential election. Each contender offers a sense of order — and hope. Republican John McCain promises an experienced hand in a frightening time. Democrat Barack Obama promises bright and shiny change, and his large crowds believe his exhortation, "Yes, we can."

More... (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080621/ap_on_re_us/out_of_control)

lacarnut
06-22-2008, 10:34 AM
It's that time of the season for all the doom & gloomers to come out of the woodworks; it's an election year and the media is going to portray the economy as going to hell in a hand basket. For example, the ranting and raving about the unemployment rate going up from 5 to 5 1/2 per cent. Oh, for the good old day of the peanut farmer at 18%.

Let's hear the good news for a change: Exports are up, worker productivity is up, wages are up, we have not had 2 quarters of negative growth which is the definition of a recession. Yes, gasoline is high but the piss-ants in DC have no answer and the media and the liberals are good at identifying problems but not worth a crap at fixing them. Next!

Cold Warrior
06-22-2008, 10:56 AM
It's that time of the season for all the doom & gloomers to come out of the woodworks; it's an election year and the media is going to portray the economy as going to hell in a hand basket. For example, the ranting and raving about the unemployment rate going up from 5 to 5 1/2 per cent. Oh, for the good old day of the peanut farmer at 18%.

Let's hear the good news for a change: Exports are up, worker productivity is up, wages are up, we have not had 2 quarters of negative growth which is the definition of a recession. Yes, gasoline is high but the piss-ants in DC have no answer and the media and the liberals are good at identifying problems but not worth a crap at fixing them. Next!

Unfortunately, it's not the simply the media this time. For example, while we've indeed had 2 quarters of positive growth, it's been .6% each quarter and that's been calculated using inflation figures that do not include food or gas. Gas and other energy costs will affect all areas of the economy, from air fares, to food, to retail sales as all are dependent in some manner on cheap transport. As you point out, no real solutions have been proposed, but for the simple reason that no short-term solutions exist. Additional drilling, nuclear, and innovative alternative sources are all long-term fixes that should have been initiated in the Clinton years, not to mention GWB's tenure.

The weakness of the dollar is certainly a, if not the, key underlying cause of many of these problems and that can be laid directly at the feet of this administration and its short-sighted economic policies. To simply say that it's better than the times of the Peanut Prez, while certainly correct, does little to address the problems.

lacarnut
06-22-2008, 12:38 PM
Unfortunately, it's not the simply the media this time. For example, while we've indeed had 2 quarters of positive growth, it's been .6% each quarter and that's been calculated using inflation figures that do not include food or gas. Gas and other energy costs will affect all areas of the economy, from air fares, to food, to retail sales as all are dependent in some manner on cheap transport. As you point out, no real solutions have been proposed, but for the simple reason that no short-term solutions exist. Additional drilling, nuclear, and innovative alternative sources are all long-term fixes that should have been initiated in the JIMMY CARTER years (THINK OIL EMBARGO).

The weakness of the dollar is certainly a, if not the, key underlying cause of many of these problems and that can be laid directly at the feet of this administration and its short-sighted economic policies. To simply say that it's better than the times of the Peanut Prez, while certainly correct, does little to address the problems.

FIXED

The Congress is an equal partner in the weakness of the dollar. The root of this problem started with stupidity of Alan Greenspan. He was asleep at the wheel for allowing these teaser rates at 1 and 2% interest only rates on mortgages. Loans to people that could not make the payments were the start of the problem but the stupid SOB testified before Congress that he did not see the need for oversight. That is a fucking fact and led to a disaster in the housing market. In turn, that led to huge losses in the financial markets. The Feds bailed them out and lowered interest rates so that the whole banking system would not collapse. Consequently, the dollar fell but watch what happens at the next Fed meeting and the next one when there will be no more cuts. Bernanke has done a great job in heading off an economic disaster; the dollar has hit bottom in my opinion and will start to go up in value.

BTW, Bush had his hand in this mess also with his promoting home ownership. Everyone does need to own a home. This home ownership mentality is not for everyone. Renting is a better alternative for many people.

Cold Warrior
06-22-2008, 12:54 PM
FIXED

The Congress is an equal partner in the weakness of the dollar. The root of this problem started with stupidity of Alan Greenspan. He was asleep at the wheel for allowing these teaser rates at 1 and 2% interest only rates on mortgages. Loans to people that could not make the payments were the start of the problem but the stupid SOB testified before Congress that he did not see the need for oversight. That is a fucking fact and led to a disaster in the housing market. In turn, that led to huge losses in the financial markets. The Feds bailed them out and lowered interest rates so that the whole banking system would not collapse. Consequently, the dollar fell but watch what happens at the next Fed meeting and the next one when there will be no more cuts. Bernanke has done a great job in heading off an economic disaster; the dollar has hit bottom in my opinion and will start to go up in value.

BTW, Bush had his hand in this mess also with his promoting home ownership. Everyone does need to own a home. This home ownership mentality is not for everyone. Renting is a better alternative for many people.

You mean, of course, the Republican Congress from 2001-2007 (excepting the Jim Jeffords lunacy)? Also, while Bush didn't appoint Greenspan originally, he kept him on. Try as everyone might, it's simply impossible to place the current economic mess in the laps of the Dims. Virtually all of it occured on the Republicans' watch. The teaser rates you refer to were allowed purposely by this administration to stimulate the economy after 9/11 by ensuring that housing and all of the industries associated with it would remain strong, thereby lessening the economic effects inevitable after such an event.

Certainly, there will be a gradual rise in the dollar when the Fed doesn't make another cut at its next meeting (there was a bump when they indicated such at the last). However, remember not soo long ago, .8 USD bought 1 Euro; now 1 Euro buys 1.55 USD. It's a long way back and I see nothing that will take the dollar above $1.30 to the Euro.

BTW, the Peanut Prez left office almost 30 years ago. While it may be fun to continue to blame the economic woes on him, surely someone in the interim 28 f'ng years could have intervened and done something.

lacarnut
06-22-2008, 01:17 PM
You mean, of course, the Republican Congress from 2001-2007 (excepting the Jim Jeffords lunacy)? Also, while Bush didn't appoint Greenspan originally, he kept him on. Try as everyone might, it's simply impossible to place the current economic mess in the laps of the Dims. Virtually all of it occured on the Republicans' watch. The teaser rates you refer to were allowed purposely by this administration to stimulate the economy after 9/11 by ensuring that housing and all of the industries associated with it would remain strong, thereby lessening the economic effects inevitable after such an event.

Certainly, there will be a gradual rise in the dollar when the Fed doesn't make another cut at its next meeting (there was a bump when they indicated such at the last). However, remember not soo long ago, .8 USD bought 1 Euro; now 1 Euro buys 1.55 USD. It's a long way back and I see nothing that will take the dollar above $1.30 to the Euro.

BTW, the Peanut Prez left office almost 30 years ago. While it may be fun to continue to blame the economic woes on him, surely someone in the interim 28 f'ng years could have intervened and done something.

I blame the Congress and all of the Presidents from Jimmy Carter to the present. Carter stated we will never be dependent on foreign oil again. The Democrats controlled Congres back then. Right. The biggest drag on our economy today is the money we have to shell out for imported oil. The Democrats had all these wonderfull ideas of alternative fuels 30 years ago. The price of oil dropped like a rock and the Democratic Congress said happy days are here again so we will just spend that money on social programs rather that energy dependency. The amount of oil that we import has increased every year. I do place the economic mess in the laps of the Democrats. Both parties have screwed the pooch.

lurkalot
06-23-2008, 12:08 AM
I have found that when the world is spinning out of control, putting one foot on the floor while lying on your back on the bed is quite effective....

no need to thank me, I live to help others

Gingersnap
06-23-2008, 10:00 AM
We have largely lost our sense of proportion and history. This is not the worst time in history or even close to it.

Everybody I know has a job and it's a real job with real pay and benefits. They live in fairly nice homes, drive functional cars, and manage to indulge in cable TV and the odd night out without starving the kids.

The problem we have in terms of our national psyche is that we have told repeatedly that no one should ever have any problems and that if any appear, it's up to society to fix. Both these assertions are false and they are both actively damaging.

We need to anticipate problems on both an individual and national scale and plan for them (energy independence, water shortages, urban/exurban planning, etc.) and we need to stop acting like children when a solution will take more than 5 minutes to implement.

The constant media drumbeat of "crisis" is no help here.

linda22003
06-23-2008, 10:05 AM
To borrow a line from CU's own Goldwater.... "I wuv you, Ginger". Great post.

Cold Warrior
06-23-2008, 10:16 AM
We have largely lost our sense of proportion and history. This is not the worst time in history or even close to it.

Everybody I know has a job and it's a real job with real pay and benefits. They live in fairly nice homes, drive functional cars, and manage to indulge in cable TV and the odd night out without starving the kids.

The problem we have in terms of our national psyche is that we have told repeatedly that no one should ever have any problems and that if any appear, it's up to society to fix. Both these assertions are false and they are both actively damaging.

We need to anticipate problems on both an individual and national scale and plan for them (energy independence, water shortages, urban/exurban planning, etc.) and we need to stop acting like children when a solution will take more than 5 minutes to implement.

The constant media drumbeat of "crisis" is no help here.

Agreed, it's certainly not the worst time in our history. However, that said, it's probably the most serious conflagration of problems, economic and national security, in the last 30 years are so and it's trending downward. Those who go around saying that everything's fine because we've had two quarters of .6% growth or because "I'm not affected at all," are merely kidding themselves. Moreover, there are no short-term fixes. While strengthening the dollar will moderate the price of oil somewhat, I doubt we'll see $99 a barrel oil any time soon.

However, I would disagree with your assertion that the problem lies in our expectation that no one should have any problems. I think it's quite the opposite. I think the problem lies in the expectation, built in throughout our culture, that we're always going to have more than we had or than our parents had. The US sprinted away from the rest of the world in terms of standard of living in the 50s and following, but the rest of the world is catching up. And, in catching up, they are competing with us for goods and resources on a scale we're not used to. No longer is the world characterized by a relatively small "first" and "second" world and a large "third" world; but rather, that third world, in the form of 1/3 of the world's population living in India and China, are moving into the second and soon into the first. That implies that while their standard of living rises, ours will inevitably decline (zero sum game with finite resources).

As to planning, our system of short-term rewards doesn't reward such activities. A good case in point is the Bush administration and Republican Congress allowing (promoting?) the proliferation of high-risk mortgages to defray the economic impacts of the dotcom bust, Year 2000 finally arriving, and 9/11. That way they could claim everything was wonderful, and retain power in 2002 and 2004, until the Piper came for his pay (and then, "what about the baaabbies!?" :D).

linda22003
06-23-2008, 10:50 AM
Those who go around saying that everything's fine because we've had two quarters of .6% growth or because "I'm not affected at all," are merely kidding themselves. Moreover, there are no short-term fixes.

True; all we can control is our own preparation to deal with slowdowns or hard times. See the day thread I started.

Goldwater
06-23-2008, 11:32 AM
We have largely lost our sense of proportion and history. This is not the worst time in history or even close to it.

Basically it boils down to what George Will said, the pain threshold has been lowered quite drastically and now everyone is a crying baby.


To borrow a line from CU's own Goldwater.... "I wuv you, Ginger". Great post.

Holla back, girl. ;)

Gingersnap
06-23-2008, 12:01 PM
Thanks, guys. :)

Really, having listened to relatives who had experienced the Depression and WWII along with crop failures, tornadoes, ill-advised speculation, and punishing working conditions, we really are a bunch of sissies.

LogansPapa
06-23-2008, 12:09 PM
Thanks, guys. :)

Really, having listened to relatives who had experienced the Depression and WWII along with crop failures, tornadoes, ill-advised speculation, and punishing working conditions, we really are a bunch of sissies.

Outstanding.;)

linda22003
06-23-2008, 12:18 PM
Really, having listened to relatives who had experienced the Depression and WWII along with crop failures, tornadoes, ill-advised speculation, and punishing working conditions, we really are a bunch of sissies.

I remember Larry Miller, the comedian, talking about how his father fought in World War II, then came home and worked two jobs full time to support five children.

Miller said, "If I go to the bank and the dry cleaner in the same afternoon, I have to lie down."

Shannon
06-23-2008, 12:34 PM
Rush just translated this article : Vote Obama :D

Gingersnap
06-23-2008, 12:38 PM
I remember Larry Miller, the comedian, talking about how his father fought in World War II, then came home and worked two jobs full time to support five children.

Miller said, "If I go to the bank and the dry cleaner in the same afternoon, I have to lie down."

I think that's both funny and true. People have a lot of unrealistic expectations and then when a crisis really does happen (a real crisis, not an existential crisis), they have no coping skills at all - they just collapse.

A lot of people complain about how stressful and awful their lives are today. The reality looks a lot different from up close. Most of their "stress" is self-generated. It isn't the kind of real stress that comes from working two jobs and trying to figure out how to serve beans for the 5th straight day in a row.

Somewhere along the line we've stopped solving problems and considering problem-solving as a normal part of adult life and we're just talking about problems as though they are a catastrophic intrusion that nobody can resolve. :(

Cold Warrior
06-23-2008, 01:13 PM
I think that's both funny and true. People have a lot of unrealistic expectations and then when a crisis really does happen (a real crisis, not an existential crisis), they have no coping skills at all - they just collapse.
...

Existential crises can be quite devastating as well...


http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee88/scdiver27/waitingforgodot.jpg

linda22003
06-23-2008, 01:21 PM
Existential crises can be quite devastating as well...


http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee88/scdiver27/waitingforgodot.jpg


Hurts? Of course it hurts!
- No one ever suffers but you.
There's a man all over for you, blaming his boots for the faults of his feet.

Gingersnap
06-23-2008, 01:23 PM
Existential crises can be quite devastating as well...

Only for the poor audience.

AlmostThere
06-23-2008, 02:48 PM
BTW, Bush had his hand in this mess also with his promoting home ownership. Everyone does need to own a home. This home ownership mentality is not for everyone. Renting is a better alternative for many people.
Why?

I can assure you of one thing. A home ownership mentality is far more beneficial to a community than a renters mentality. In fact it's also beneficial to the individual. Owning a home gives them a stake in their community. The trick is buying a home they can afford.

Lager
06-23-2008, 03:59 PM
We're in a bit of a catch-22 situation. If Americans returned to a more thrifty, live within your means, save for the future culture as was once a widespread and valued habit, the financial health of our nation would improve in the long term, but the short and intermediate term would be disasterous. We've got to keep people buying and selling junk so we can avoid the negative connotation of declining growth. It would be too scarey to suddenly see electronics salesmen, cable tv installers, or bill collectors lose their jobs in droves.

lacarnut
06-23-2008, 05:35 PM
Why?

I can assure you of one thing. A home ownership mentality is far more beneficial to a community than a renters mentality. In fact it's also beneficial to the individual. Owning a home gives them a stake in their community. The trick is buying a home they can afford.

Because if you can not afford the payments, the insurance, taxes and repairs, you should rent. Pretty simple. The trick is to save up enough money so that if the value of the house goes down, you get laid off, you move, you are disabled, your income goes down, that you have the resources either from saving or insurance so that you do not wind up in a financial bind.

My house is paid off but I do not feel that my ownership is more beneficial to the community than my rental neighboor 2 doors down the street. I think that something you dreamed up.

AlmostThere
06-23-2008, 08:01 PM
Because if you can not afford the payments, the insurance, taxes and repairs, you should rent. Pretty simple. The trick is to save up enough money so that if the value of the house goes down, you get laid off, you move, you are disabled, your income goes down, that you have the resources either from saving or insurance so that you do not wind up in a financial bind.

My house is paid off but I do not feel that my ownership is more beneficial to the community than my rental neighboor 2 doors down the street. I think that something you dreamed up.

Unless you own and have your home paid off, you'll be paying rent or a mortgage until you die. Point is, unless you die, you gotta pay somebody. Personally, I'd rather my payment be building my equity rather than some landlord's. When I said "a home you can afford", that means a house you can make payments such as insurance, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. It also means you have the reserves to get past setbacks. PRETTY SIMPLE. I was a landlord for about 6 years. During that time, my tenants paid the mortgage, insurance and taxes through their rent. When I decided to sell the property, I made over 40K profit and I'm not even including the tax benefit I got on the interest on the mortgage. I see a whole lot of incentive to own and zero to rent. Except in the case where you know you'll be in an area for just a short period of time, people are crazy to rent if at all possible to own.

You have a home that's paid off. Either you've won the lottery or you've lived there a while. Given your druthers, you don't care at all if your neighbors are renters or owner occupants? If you don't, I find that a little hard to believe. As the percentage of renters in your neighborhood goes up, it has a negative impact on YOUR property value. High percentage transient neighborhoods have a higher crime rate than owner-occupant neighborhoods. Property is better maintained by owner-occupants. These observations don't apply to every single neighborhood across America, but they are generally factual. If having neighborhoods that are primarily "owner-occupants" doesn't benefit the community, I don't know what will.

Gingersnap
06-23-2008, 09:32 PM
There are smart reasons to rent instead of own. Young professional people who are apt to move around are better off renting as are creaky elderly people who travel a great deal.

What determines the smartness of the decision has to do with where the "extra" incomes goes. If it goes into bars and vacations - you are stupid, if it goes into retirement or investments - you are smart.

For most people, home ownership is the best way to build wealth if you don't watch your investments or have a lucrative career. It's not the absolute fastest way to get the best return but it's generally safe and thought-free.

Goldwater
06-23-2008, 11:10 PM
Why?

I can assure you of one thing. A home ownership mentality is far more beneficial to a community than a renters mentality. In fact it's also beneficial to the individual. Owning a home gives them a stake in their community. The trick is buying a home they can afford.

Renting can also shield you from insecurities in the housing markets.

marinejcksn
06-23-2008, 11:17 PM
As the great Jerry Doyle, my personal 6'3" ATM of information says:

This is the year for MISERBALISM. :D

"the sky is falling!" "Bush lied, guys died!" "polar bears are Threatened!"......liberal bumper stickers just make me LOL.

that's what the Gipper always said. You can't help but laugh.

marinejcksn
06-23-2008, 11:23 PM
Renting can also shield you from insecurities in the housing markets.

Exactly. Great point too up above too, Ginger. It's like my situation: While I serve in the Marines I generally move every 3 or 4 years. I thought of buying a home, but at the present time I lack a significant 20% down payment and can't totally afford a home once I'd pay for all the extra expenses, so I DON'T BUY ONE.

I'm so sick and tired of these crybabies who got "screwed" in the subprime deals. My heart goes out to the victims that were taken advantage of, because some CLEARLY were, but for the most part it was just greedy fools who thought they could "flip" a bunch of houses. It's like that stupid Laura Richardson, and the sympathy she tries to get over losing her HOMES. That's home with an S, as in plural. I'm christian to the core, but I'd love to see an idiot congresswoman stuck in a homeless shelter over being just fat and greedy:D

lacarnut
06-24-2008, 12:27 AM
Unless you own and have your home paid off, you'll be paying rent or a mortgage until you die. Point is, unless you die, you gotta pay somebody. Personally, I'd rather my payment be building my equity rather than some landlord's. When I said "a home you can afford", that means a house you can make payments such as insurance, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. It also means you have the reserves to get past setbacks. PRETTY SIMPLE. I was a landlord for about 6 years. During that time, my tenants paid the mortgage, insurance and taxes through their rent. When I decided to sell the property, I made over 40K profit and I'm not even including the tax benefit I got on the interest on the mortgage. I see a whole lot of incentive to own and zero to rent. Except in the case where you know you'll be in an area for just a short period of time, people are crazy to rent if at all possible to own.

You have a home that's paid off. Either you've won the lottery or you've lived there a while. Given your druthers, you don't care at all if your neighbors are renters or owner occupants? If you don't, I find that a little hard to believe. As the percentage of renters in your neighborhood goes up, it has a negative impact on YOUR property value. High percentage transient neighborhoods have a higher crime rate than owner-occupant neighborhoods. Property is better maintained by owner-occupants. These observations don't apply to every single neighborhood across America, but they are generally factual. If having neighborhoods that are primarily "owner-occupants" doesn't benefit the community, I don't know what will.

Many millions of people took out sub prime mortgages that should have never been allowed to purchase a home because of their finances. You think people should be allowed to purchase a house with teaser rates of 1 or 2 per cent or interest only payments for 3 or 5 years. I say bullshit on that. BTW, my parents had rent houses for over 30 years so you can not tell me squat about renting houses. Another fact is that it is much easier to evict someone out of rental property than it is a house. These sub primers can move in a house, not pay note one and it would take 7 to 9 months to kick them out.

I said I had (1) one neighbor who rents down the street from me; not a whole bunch of them . They are LSU students who are better neighbors than the trashy lawyer that lives next door. So your rental example does not apply to me. In fact, I wish I the students lived next to me rather than the asshole lawyer that lets his grass grow up. I put up a 8 foot cedar fence so I don't have to look at his house or yard.

I own my house and am thinking about buying a house across the street from my dad's with cash. Another one of your observations gone to pot. At one time my parents owned 4 houses. All were paid off. I was a happy camper when they sold the last rent house so I would not have to collect the rent, repair them and serve eviction notices on drug dealers/ felons.

AlmostThere
06-24-2008, 03:44 AM
Many millions of people took out sub prime mortgages that should have never been allowed to purchase a home because of their finances. You think people should be allowed to purchase a house with teaser rates of 1 or 2 per cent or interest only payments for 3 or 5 years. I say bullshit on that. BTW, my parents had rent houses for over 30 years so you can not tell me squat about renting houses. Another fact is that it is much easier to evict someone out of rental property than it is a house. These sub primers can move in a house, not pay note one and it would take 7 to 9 months to kick them out.

I said I had (1) one neighbor who rents down the street from me; not a whole bunch of them . They are LSU students who are better neighbors than the trashy lawyer that lives next door. So your rental example does not apply to me. In fact, I wish I the students lived next to me rather than the asshole lawyer that lets his grass grow up. I put up a 8 foot cedar fence so I don't have to look at his house or yard.

I own my house and am thinking about buying a house across the street from my dad's with cash. Another one of your observations gone to pot. At one time my parents owned 4 houses. All were paid off. I was a happy camper when they sold the last rent house so I would not have to collect the rent, repair them and serve eviction notices on drug dealers/ felons.
Please point out ONE place where I've suggested, implied, even mentioned interest rates, sub-prime or otherwise. Tell you what, I'll save you the trouble, I haven't. Do not attribute comments or thoughts to me that I haven't stated. What is so hard for you to understand about the concept of responsible home ownership? It's not complicated. You buy a house you can actually afford. It doesn't have to be your dream home or one you even like much. You're buying to build equity and for the tax advantages. Over a period of time, you move up to better homes if you so desire. I've owned 3 different homes in the last 11 years.This is not rocket science.

As far as tenants, I did credit and background checks, employment verification and references from past landlords. In 6 years I never had a late rental payment and my property was vacant for 1 month. That was my choosing so I could do painting and general maintenance. I just approached it as a business. Hell, it was a business. Considering my track record with tenants and you having to evict drug dealers/felons, I guess there is squat I can tell you about rental properties.

As far as your trashy lawyer neighbor, call the health department. Grass of a certain height is a health hazard.

AlmostThere
06-24-2008, 04:19 AM
Exactly. Great point too up above too, Ginger. It's like my situation: While I serve in the Marines I generally move every 3 or 4 years. I thought of buying a home, but at the present time I lack a significant 20% down payment and can't totally afford a home once I'd pay for all the extra expenses, so I DON'T BUY ONE.

I'm so sick and tired of these crybabies who got "screwed" in the subprime deals. My heart goes out to the victims that were taken advantage of, because some CLEARLY were, but for the most part it was just greedy fools who thought they could "flip" a bunch of houses. It's like that stupid Laura Richardson, and the sympathy she tries to get over losing her HOMES. That's home with an S, as in plural. I'm christian to the core, but I'd love to see an idiot congresswoman stuck in a homeless shelter over being just fat and greedy:D

I saw on TV the other day that because of fuel costs, simple commodities in Hawaii have skyrocketed in price. They showed a gallon of OJ on the shelf for $10.15. My God. If OJ is over $10 a gallon, how does anyone afford to live there, much less buy a home? You're there on the American Plan and obviously you have no choice.

I was in Amsterdam last week. With fuel prices through the roof and a dollar fetching .57 Euros, I can appreciate your pain. It ain't pretty.

AlmostThere
06-24-2008, 04:29 AM
Renting can also shield you from insecurities in the housing markets.
What does that mean exactly? :confused:

marinejcksn
06-24-2008, 05:50 AM
I saw on TV the other day that because of fuel costs, simple commodities in Hawaii have skyrocketed in price. They showed a gallon of OJ on the shelf for $10.15. My God. If OJ is over $10 a gallon, how does anyone afford to live there, much less buy a home? You're there on the American Plan and obviously you have no choice.

I was in Amsterdam last week. With fuel prices through the roof and a dollar fetching .57 Euros, I can appreciate your pain. It ain't pretty.

I haven't seen OJ at 10.15 prices, mainly I think because I only shop at the Military Commisaries which are much cheaper. I do know that prices at grocery stores out in town are incredibly inflated. For instance, milk is around 3.50 a gallon on the military base, but over 6 dollars a gallon out in town.

Lager
06-24-2008, 03:43 PM
All these dire economic predictions and yet.... The roads are still as crowded as they have ever been. The lines at Wal Mart are just as long. Post Office waiting time hasn't changed, still plenty of Ebay sellers with multitudes of packages and I still always manage to get stuck behind one. Theme parks and sporting events are still packed to the brim. Bottled water is still flying off the shelves and it's a lot pricier than petrol. Yep, it seems the word hasn't gone out widely enough, DU isn't doing a very good job, they're not panicking enough people.

Cold Warrior
06-24-2008, 05:41 PM
All these dire economic predictions and yet.... The roads are still as crowded as they have ever been.

MrBackoftheBus posted this same mantra elsewhere. It's too bad that facts often get in the way of perceptions...


U.S. driving down 11 Billion miles in March, the sharpest drop in history (http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/28/us-driving-dropped-11-billion-miles-in-march-the-sharpest-drop-in-history/)
Price does matter. So does public perception of likely future prices. As it becomes increasingly clear that high gasoline prices are not a fluke, Americans are adjusting their driving habits.

March 2008 saw “the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history” of total vehicle miles traveled (aka VMT) according to the Federal Highway Administration’s monthly report on “Traffic Volume Trends.
...



The lines at Wal Mart are just as long.

And the lines will get longer and longer as more people are only able to afford the crap they sell at WalMart.


Post Office waiting time hasn't changed, still plenty of Ebay sellers with multitudes of packages and I still always manage to get stuck behind one.

Given the total incompetence of postal workers, the waiting times wouldn't change if they saw a 50% decrease in customers.


Theme parks and sporting events are still packed to the brim.


Fewer airplane seats may mean decrease in theme park visitors (http://orlando.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/06/23/story2.html?b=1214193600%5E1652921)
Orlando Business Journal
by Dan Ping Staff Writer

The Walt Disney Co.'s Central Florida theme parks could see sharp declines in attendance this fall as airlines eliminate more than 5,700 seats per day on flights to Orlando due to soaring fuel prices.

The reason: 35 percent of visitors to Walt Disney World travel to Orlando on domestic flights, says a report by Pali Capital Research Managing Director Richard Greenfield.
...


Bottled water is still flying off the shelves and it's a lot pricier than petrol.

This one is correct, albeit not particularly relevant.


Yep, it seems the word hasn't gone out widely enough, DU isn't doing a very good job, they're not panicking enough people.

The Bush administration's purposeful postponement of the 2000 recession and the economic effects of 9/11 is now significantly impacting business in the US. And it will continue to worsen until we take effective steps -- not token gestures like suspending the federal gas tax -- to address the underlying issues: the weakness of the dollar, the globalization of markets, and the use of alternative energy sources.

lacarnut
06-24-2008, 07:38 PM
All these dire economic predictions and yet.... The roads are still as crowded as they have ever been. The lines at Wal Mart are just as long. Post Office waiting time hasn't changed, still plenty of Ebay sellers with multitudes of packages and I still always manage to get stuck behind one. Theme parks and sporting events are still packed to the brim. Bottled water is still flying off the shelves and it's a lot pricier than petrol. Yep, it seems the word hasn't gone out widely enough, DU isn't doing a very good job, they're not panicking enough people.

It is an election year; so the liberal media is out in full force trying to get Obama elected with all the doom and gloom. An AP business reporter stated that economic conditions were as bad as they were in the 80's when the peanut farmer was Prez. I say that is an unmitigated damn lie.

How about for once these sorry pricks print the good news in comparison to how things were 30 odd years ago like:

1. Unemployment is lower
2. Jobs are plentiful
2. Interest rates for homes are 12% lower
3. Productivity is up
4. Exports are up

Yea, yea, yea. I know that gasoline is high--we have the housing mess and the dollar is going south but it sure as hell not as bad as these pessimists make it out to be.

We need a little pain in our lives; everything is not going to come up roses. People need to plan for financial stability, save for a rainy day and expect the unexpected. As far as I am concerned, this is just a bump in the road.

Lager
06-24-2008, 08:30 PM
March 2008 saw “the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history” of total vehicle miles traveled (aka VMT) according to the Federal Highway Administration’s monthly report on “Traffic Volume Trends.


I don't doubt that there is some drop off, certainly not noticing it on the streets out here in the West. But I will lay odds that this down turn comes after record setting recent years. Until this recent spike, you've got to admit we've been blessed with relatively cheap gasoline.



And the lines will get longer and longer as more people are only able to afford the crap they sell at WalMart.



But it's the fact that people are still buying the crap. Buying crap would be the first activity they jettison in truly dire times.


Given the total incompetence of postal workers, the waiting times wouldn't change if they saw a 50% decrease in customers.


Can't argue with that. That's what you get with government jobs and unions.


The Walt Disney Co.'s Central Florida theme parks could see sharp declines in attendance this fall as airlines eliminate more than 5,700 seats per day on flights to Orlando due to soaring fuel prices.

The cheap American dollar should attract a multitude of foreign visitors, easing the effect of any domestic drop off.

We've just gone through a sustained period of outstanding economic growth. There's no way a rate like that could proceed unabated. Some of the problems we're facing may actually be a result of that growth. False optimism, irrational exuberance.

Housing prices grew to such an inflated level, that they had to normalize eventually. Encouraging cheap credit to fix the economic problems caused by 9/11 seems in hindsight to have caused its own set of dilemmas. The value of the dollar is worrisome and yes Bush didn't handle the economy all that well besides cutting taxes, especially capital gains.

You may disagree, but I think we will weather this alright in the end, and it will cause adjustments that will benefit us in the long run. One thing that came out recently is the possibility of high transportation costs leading to the reversal of shipping manufacturing jobs overseas. It may become more cost effective -- even taking into consideration cheap labor -- to make stuff here in the good ole USA again.

John
06-24-2008, 08:38 PM
Well, if everything were in control, I wouldn't know what what was going on.


All these dire economic predictions and yet.... The roads are still as crowded as they have ever been. The lines at Wal Mart are just as long. Post Office waiting time hasn't changed, still plenty of Ebay sellers with multitudes of packages and I still always manage to get stuck behind one. Theme parks and sporting events are still packed to the brim. Bottled water is still flying off the shelves and it's a lot pricier than petrol. Yep, it seems the word hasn't gone out widely enough, DU isn't doing a very good job, they're not panicking enough people.


My father in law makes him primary living off EBay. He's a retired police officer who sells retired police and radio equipment. He's about to lose his house if HAM radioers and small town police departments don't start spending again soon.

My father is a former contractor turned real estate appraiser/inspector. He's in dire straights right now. The construction industry is in really, really bad shape here in AZ. Everyone I know who works construction, and I know a lot from working with my father, is up the proverbial creek without a paddle.

So things certainly aren't just peachy. Other industries, like my industry, aren't as effected though and I'm still making the same amount with no slowdown in my companies sales. Things will likely get better for the affected industries, but there will be casualties, more foreclosures, and more inflation before that happens.




The cheap American dollar should attract a multitude of foreign visitors, easing the effect of any domestic drop off.

We've just gone through a sustained period of outstanding economic growth. There's no way a rate like that could proceed unabated. Some of the problems we're facing may actually be a result of that growth. False optimism, irrational exuberance.

Housing prices grew to such an inflated level, that they had to normalize eventually. Encouraging cheap credit to fix the economic problems caused by 9/11 seems in hindsight to have caused its own set of dilemmas. The value of the dollar is worrisome and yes Bush didn't handle the economy all that well besides cutting taxes, especially capital gains.

You may disagree, but I think we will weather this alright in the end, and it will cause adjustments that will benefit us in the long run. One thing that came out recently is the possibility of high transportation costs leading to the reversal of shipping manufacturing jobs overseas. It may become more cost effective -- even taking into consideration cheap labor -- to make stuff here in the good ole USA again.


I don't doubt that we will weather this storm. But our deficit needs to drop in order to bring value back to that cheap American dollar. There's all sorts of blame being thrown around, but the culprit of inflation is the deficit and those who brought it as high as it's become. I think American voters know this as it's been reflected in congressional approval ratings.

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 04:44 AM
I haven't seen OJ at 10.15 prices, mainly I think because I only shop at the Military Commisaries which are much cheaper. I do know that prices at grocery stores out in town are incredibly inflated. For instance, milk is around 3.50 a gallon on the military base, but over 6 dollars a gallon out in town.
I'm amazed. Here in GA, milk is going for about $5.50. But we still have a good job market so housing didn't take a bad hit. All in all, we're doing pretty well here.

linda22003
06-25-2008, 08:21 AM
Unless you own and have your home paid off, you'll be paying rent or a mortgage until you die. Point is, unless you die, you gotta pay somebody. Personally, I'd rather my payment be building my equity rather than some landlord's. When I said "a home you can afford", that means a house you can make payments such as insurance, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. It also means you have the reserves to get past setbacks. PRETTY SIMPLE.

Dave Ramsey has a good formula: your house payment should be no more than 25% of the family take-home income, on a fifteen year mortgage. We've always gone by the 25% rule, but in the Washington area we had to do it on a thirty year mortgage, at first.

biccat
06-25-2008, 10:32 AM
Many millions of people took out sub prime mortgages that should have never been allowed to purchase a home because of their finances. You think people should be allowed to purchase a house with teaser rates of 1 or 2 per cent or interest only payments for 3 or 5 years. I say bullshit on that.
I would have loved it if we could have gotten a 1-2% interest rate on our mortgage for 5 years. Because after 5 years, we would have either moved or refinanced our mortgage.

Of course, with interest rates at about 6.5% these days (30 year), it is likely that rates will be much higher 5 years down the road. And the 5-year ARM option is currently at about 7%. We were fine (although not happy about it, considering rates were <6% a few weeks ago) getting locked in at 6 3/8.

But we weren't subprime borrowers, because we made good decisions with our money, paid off credit cards monthly, and never had late payments.

lacarnut
06-25-2008, 10:59 AM
Many people went out and put a second mortgage on a home that they just purchased a few years ago. When prices started to fall, their equity evaporated leaving them upside down on their original loan. Between the lenders and borrowers stupidity, we are in this housing mess now.

biccat
06-25-2008, 11:05 AM
Many people went out and put a second mortgage on a home that they just purchased a few years ago. When prices started to fall, their equity evaporated leaving them upside down on their original loan. Between the lenders and borrowers stupidity, we are in this housing mess now.
A lot of the fault should also be laid at the feet of Congress. They mandated banks to provide mortgages to subprime borrowers. Then the subprime borrowers couldn't meet the terms that the lenders required to make a profit. Result is a huge mess that Congress helped create, and is now using as a basis to extend federal power.

As for people taking out a second mortgage, those people took on a debt that they knew they were expected to repay. The value of their house was irrelevant to the payments. If they couldn't afford the payments, they shouldn't have taken out the loan. If they could afford the payments, then the fact that their home is worth less than the loan is irrelevant.

Home prices only matter when you try to sell.

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 02:22 PM
I would have loved it if we could have gotten a 1-2% interest rate on our mortgage for 5 years. Because after 5 years, we would have either moved or refinanced our mortgage.

Of course, with interest rates at about 6.5% these days (30 year), it is likely that rates will be much higher 5 years down the road. And the 5-year ARM option is currently at about 7%. We were fine (although not happy about it, considering rates were <6% a few weeks ago) getting locked in at 6 3/8.

But we weren't subprime borrowers, because we made good decisions with our money, paid off credit cards monthly, and never had late payments.

Saaaay, we don't cotton to no financially responsible varmints around these parts. :D

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 02:26 PM
A lot of the fault should also be laid at the feet of Congress. They mandated banks to provide mortgages to subprime borrowers. Then the subprime borrowers couldn't meet the terms that the lenders required to make a profit. Result is a huge mess that Congress helped create, and is now using as a basis to extend federal power.

As for people taking out a second mortgage, those people took on a debt that they knew they were expected to repay. The value of their house was irrelevant to the payments. If they couldn't afford the payments, they shouldn't have taken out the loan. If they could afford the payments, then the fact that their home is worth less than the loan is irrelevant.

Home prices only matter when you try to sell.

Gimmie an AMEN.

biccat
06-25-2008, 02:32 PM
Saaaay, we don't cotton to no financially responsible varmints around these parts. :D
Its disappointing to know that Congress is encouraging people to live irresponsibly and carry tons of credit card debt while skipping out on valid debts. If my wife and I had bought a house last year instead of living economically and saving our income, we would be eligible for a bailout from the feds. Instead, because we saved up and waited until we could afford a house, we are going to be stuck paying for some other jerk to get a free home.

I suppose I'll have to get over the fact that Congress is punishing success and rewarding irresponsible behavior (as usual).

linda22003
06-25-2008, 02:36 PM
Instead, because we saved up and waited until we could afford a house, we are going to be stuck paying for some other jerk to get a free home.


How do you think I feel? My husband and I have actually been meeting our OWN mortgage obligations for the past eighteen years! :mad:

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 03:19 PM
And the lines will get longer and longer as more people are only able to afford the crap they sell at WalMart.

There's a silver lining here. Look at the upside. While more and more Americans are relegated to the check-out lines, think of all the good we'll be doing for the economy of our good friend, China. :rolleyes:

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z82/lap0118/tongue.jpg

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 03:33 PM
Its disappointing to know that Congress is encouraging people to live irresponsibly and carry tons of credit card debt while skipping out on valid debts. If my wife and I had bought a house last year instead of living economically and saving our income, we would be eligible for a bailout from the feds. Instead, because we saved up and waited until we could afford a house, we are going to be stuck paying for some other jerk to get a free home.

I suppose I'll have to get over the fact that Congress is punishing success and rewarding irresponsible behavior (as usual).


How do you think I feel? My husband and I have actually been meeting our OWN mortgage obligations for the past eighteen years! :mad:

Ladies and Gentleman,

It sucks! But both you guys are leaving out 2 important factors.

1) YOU BOTH PLAYED BY THE RULES.

2) YOU BOTH CAN LOOK AT YOURSELVES IN THE MIRROR WITHOUT HAVING A NEED TO TAKE A SHOWER AFTERWARDS.

There is an upside. Damn expensive, but an upside.

linda22003
06-25-2008, 03:40 PM
#2 is true of all the other people, too. Shame isn't a big driver there.

biccat
06-25-2008, 03:43 PM
2) YOU BOTH CAN LOOK AT YOURSELVES IN THE MIRROR WITHOUT HAVING A NEED TO TAKE A SHOWER AFTERWARDS.
Well, for me at least. I don't know about Linda #'s. How she stand to see a liberal that early every day is beyond my comprehension.

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 03:53 PM
#2 is true of all the other people, too. Shame isn't a big driver there.

I don't know about that. If I took on more house than I could afford, totally of my own volition, and when the crap hit the fan, depended on a government bailout to keep my house, I wouldn't feel exactly clean.

Was that a run-on or what?

AlmostThere
06-25-2008, 05:12 PM
Well, for me at least. I don't know about Linda #'s. How she stand to see a liberal that early every day is beyond my comprehension.

Now, now, lets play nice. :D:D

linda22003
06-25-2008, 05:32 PM
Now, now, lets play nice. :D:D

It's fine. I'm not concerned with his classification system.

Cold Warrior
06-25-2008, 07:20 PM
double entry. see post below

Cold Warrior
06-25-2008, 07:22 PM
It's fine. I'm not concerned with his classification system.

Hip, hip hooray for our side!!! Now, if I could just figure out which one is "our side." :confused:

But, always keep in mind MrBackoftheBus' wise observation: "When liberals do something, they're stupid; when conservatives do the same thing, they're smart." If you religiously follow that rule, maybe you too can grow up to be a double naught...


http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/Common/Img/jethro.gif

linda22003
06-25-2008, 07:24 PM
I think we're usually pretty much on the same side, CW.

biccat
06-25-2008, 09:07 PM
It's fine. I'm not concerned with his classification system.
Geez, I was trying to make a joke. Sorry if I offended you.

:rolleyes:

linda22003
06-26-2008, 08:27 AM
Not at all. I'm glad to hear it was a pleasantry. :)

Odysseus
06-26-2008, 10:32 AM
May you live in interesting times
May you come to the attention of those in authority
May you find what you are looking for
- Chinese Proverb and Curse

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only"

lacarnut
06-26-2008, 10:58 AM
Its disappointing to know that Congress is encouraging people to live irresponsibly and carry tons of credit card debt while skipping out on valid debts. If my wife and I had bought a house last year instead of living economically and saving our income, we would be eligible for a bailout from the feds. Instead, because we saved up and waited until we could afford a house, we are going to be stuck paying for some other jerk to get a free home.

I suppose I'll have to get over the fact that Congress is punishing success and rewarding irresponsible behavior (as usual).

I would not worry about those irresponsible people. Those are the people that when they get in their 60's, they will not have a pot to piss in and a window to throw it; they will be working a Walleymart in their golden years as a Wall-Mart greeter.

Another thing that is frightening is that many people are raiding their 401savings plan. They will be in deep shit if they keep on spending like there is no tomorrow. Bottom line is that those who save and spend responsibly will probably be in better shape when retirement comes around the corner.

marinejcksn
06-26-2008, 02:21 PM
I would not worry about those irresponsible people. Those are the people that when they get in their 60's, they will not have a pot to piss in and a window to throw it; they will be working a Walleymart in their golden years as a Wall-Mart greeter.

Another thing that is frightening is that many people are raiding their 401savings plan. They will be in deep shit if they keep on spending like there is no tomorrow. Bottom line is that those who save and spend responsibly will probably be in better shape when retirement comes around the corner.

:D
I know EXACTLY what you mean Lacarnut. When I first got credit cards I never checked my score and just bought whatever I wanted, my parents never really tought me about credit (not that it's THEIR fault, a real man accepts blame when it's his and ADMITS his mistakes;) ) soon I found myself in a tough situation. I'm still working to spend responsibly and not just go hog-wild, and it was great I learned the lesson.Now, I've got the money every month direct deposited towards my Roth IRA, my TSP, my 2040 and other retirement accounts. I'd be a damn fool if I relied on Social Security to pay for my retirement! That pipe dream will be bankrupt before I'm 40;)

Odysseus
06-26-2008, 07:22 PM
:D
I know EXACTLY what you mean Lacarnut. When I first got credit cards I never checked my score and just bought whatever I wanted, my parents never really tought me about credit (not that it's THEIR fault, a real man accepts blame when it's his and ADMITS his mistakes;) ) soon I found myself in a tough situation. I'm still working to spend responsibly and not just go hog-wild, and it was great I learned the lesson.Now, I've got the money every month direct deposited towards my Roth IRA, my TSP, my 2040 and other retirement accounts. I'd be a damn fool if I relied on Social Security to pay for my retirement! That pipe dream will be bankrupt before I'm 40;)

This is too true, but then, Social Security was mis-conceived from the beginning. Roosevelt set it up as retirement insurance, on the assumption that most Americans would never live long enough to file claims. That was a huge miscalculation, as improved medicine and higher standards of living in postwar America led to longer lifespans, and the baby boom guaranteed a massive retirement boom sixty-five years after WWII ended. Any insurance plan that suddenly has to pay out claims to the majority of its customers will collapse, and the government's response, to raise taxes on younger workers to pay for current retirees, was just the perpetuation of the unsustainable Ponzi scheme that Social Security had become. Throw in the government's spending of the revenues on a host of other programs, and you have a situation that would have landed the CEO of any private company with similar practices in jail. Social Security is Enron, but on a far greater scale.

What should have been done was what Chile did in the early 80s, which was create individual accounts and privatize the system. Individual withholding put the money into privately held accounts which were invested by several approved firms, which operated within broad guidelines as to investment options, but which were otherwise kept free of government initerference. The return on investments was always higher than the government's payouts, and unlike Social Security, the principal is still the property of the individual investor, which means that when you die, your heirs will inherit your fund. The only reason that we're not doing this in the US is that any attempt to reform the system is demogogued shamelessly by those who want to maintain their political power through fearmongering.

Molon Labe
06-26-2008, 08:13 PM
Now, I've got the money every month direct deposited towards my Roth IRA, my TSP, my 2040 and other retirement accounts. I'd be a damn fool if I relied on Social Security to pay for my retirement! That pipe dream will be bankrupt before I'm 40;)

Now if we could save the future worth of our retirement portfolios by getting hold of inflation and sound economics. My big fear is that all our savings will not be worth the paper they're printed on when it's time for us to retire.

marinejcksn
06-27-2008, 01:31 AM
This is too true, but then, Social Security was mis-conceived from the beginning. Roosevelt set it up as retirement insurance, on the assumption that most Americans would never live long enough to file claims. That was a huge miscalculation, as improved medicine and higher standards of living in postwar America led to longer lifespans, and the baby boom guaranteed a massive retirement boom sixty-five years after WWII ended. Any insurance plan that suddenly has to pay out claims to the majority of its customers will collapse, and the government's response, to raise taxes on younger workers to pay for current retirees, was just the perpetuation of the unsustainable Ponzi scheme that Social Security had become. Throw in the government's spending of the revenues on a host of other programs, and you have a situation that would have landed the CEO of any private company with similar practices in jail. Social Security is Enron, but on a far greater scale.

What should have been done was what Chile did in the early 80s, which was create individual accounts and privatize the system. Individual withholding put the money into privately held accounts which were invested by several approved firms, which operated within broad guidelines as to investment options, but which were otherwise kept free of government initerference. The return on investments was always higher than the government's payouts, and unlike Social Security, the principal is still the property of the individual investor, which means that when you die, your heirs will inherit your fund. The only reason that we're not doing this in the US is that any attempt to reform the system is demogogued shamelessly by those who want to maintain their political power through fearmongering.

You put it so greatly, Sir. I've started reading up a LOT lately on Roosevelt and the New Deal, Jonah Goldberg's book Liberal Fascism is impossible to put down. It's gotten to the point where even my own father doubts he'll see his SS benefits, then again my dad always told me not to rely on the Government to help me out. Might explain why we were inches away from Welfare when our family farm hit rough times but wouldn't take it.

I always look at it from the perspective of the real reason SS was never a Voluntary program. If it wasn't government mandated, hardly anyone would actually choose it.:D

marinejcksn
06-27-2008, 01:33 AM
Now if we could save the future worth of our retirement portfolios by getting hold of inflation and sound economics. My big fear is that all our savings will not be worth the paper they're printed on when it's time for us to retire.

Gold baby, gold. Tangible object which holds at least SOME value, historically at least.:D
Just wish I started buying it when my friend from Boot Camp was trying to get me to buy it, his dad was a broker and prices were less then 300 bucks an ounce. :(

linda22003
06-27-2008, 07:49 AM
Another thing that is frightening is that many people are raiding their 401savings plan. They will be in deep shit if they keep on spending like there is no tomorrow. Bottom line is that those who save and spend responsibly will probably be in better shape when retirement comes around the corner.

Yeah, but the ones who didn't save will outnumber those of us who did. Guess who's going to want a chunk of our retirement "redistributed" into their retirement? :rolleyes:

Cold Warrior
06-27-2008, 09:26 AM
Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBzD.V1iluuA&refer=worldwide)


http://autoglassatlanta.com/files/2006/08/ford-edge-crossover-suv-launch.jpg


Oil jumps above $140 on OPEC, Libya comments (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91HU5I81&show_article=1)


http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/ostrich_head_sand.jpg

U.S. Q4 2007 GDP rises at 0.6% annual rate, up 2.2% for 2007 (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/28/u-s-q4-2007-gdp-rises-at-0-6-annual-rate-up-2-2-for-2007/)
Still Not a Recession -- Q1 2008 GDP Remains at .6% (http://useconomy.about.com/b/2008/04/30/still-not-a-recession-q1-2008-gdp-remains-at-6.htm)


http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/05/17/starts_permits.png

May housing starts sink to 1991 low (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25205808/)


http://moonbeammcqueen.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/shocked-monopoly-man-t.jpg

DJ Euro Jumps Above $1.5750 Vs Dollar As US Stocks Tumble (http://biznes.onet.pl/5,1777540,wiadomosci.html)

Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

Molon Labe
06-27-2008, 10:13 AM
Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBzD.V1iluuA&refer=worldwide)

[

Oil jumps above $140 on OPEC, Libya comments (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91HU5I81&show_article=1)

[U.S. Q4 2007 GDP rises at 0.6% annual rate, up 2.2% for 2007 (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/28/u-s-q4-2007-gdp-rises-at-0-6-annual-rate-up-2-2-for-2007/)
Still Not a Recession -- Q1 2008 GDP Remains at .6% (http://useconomy.about.com/b/2008/04/30/still-not-a-recession-q1-2008-gdp-remains-at-6.htm)


May housing starts sink to 1991 low (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25205808/)


DJ Euro Jumps Above $1.5750 Vs Dollar As US Stocks Tumble (http://biznes.onet.pl/5,1777540,wiadomosci.html)

Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

Great observations....very scary stuff.

linda22003
06-27-2008, 11:07 AM
I still have the vapors from yesterday's market run.... down.

LogansPapa
06-27-2008, 11:59 AM
Don’t worry - since we can’t use the "R" word, then there’s no way we can slip into one. So says ‘The Decider.’ :rolleyes:

Cold Warrior
06-27-2008, 12:10 PM
Don’t worry - since we can’t use the "R" word, then there’s no way we can slip into one. So says ‘The Decider.’ :rolleyes:

Right! After all we had .6% and .6% for two consecutive quarters, after deducting inflation calculated NOT to include gas and food. No "R" word. Check! :D

lacarnut
06-27-2008, 01:30 PM
Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBzD.V1iluuA&refer=worldwide)


http://autoglassatlanta.com/files/2006/08/ford-edge-crossover-suv-launch.jpg


Oil jumps above $140 on OPEC, Libya comments (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91HU5I81&show_article=1)


http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/ostrich_head_sand.jpg

U.S. Q4 2007 GDP rises at 0.6% annual rate, up 2.2% for 2007 (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/28/u-s-q4-2007-gdp-rises-at-0-6-annual-rate-up-2-2-for-2007/)
Still Not a Recession -- Q1 2008 GDP Remains at .6% (http://useconomy.about.com/b/2008/04/30/still-not-a-recession-q1-2008-gdp-remains-at-6.htm)


http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/05/17/starts_permits.png

May housing starts sink to 1991 low (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25205808/)


http://moonbeammcqueen.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/shocked-monopoly-man-t.jpg

DJ Euro Jumps Above $1.5750 Vs Dollar As US Stocks Tumble (http://biznes.onet.pl/5,1777540,wiadomosci.html)

Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy

My stocks in May went up big time--not so hot in June but that's to be expected by the old saying "go away in May"

Oil will keep going up until the dummies in DC get serious about new drilling, nuke plants, etc.

An increase in GDP is better than a decrease. BTW, that .6% was upgraded to 1% Yea

Housing starts-- need to sell the ones on the market before a shit-pot load of new ones are built. However, in my part of the country, the economy and the housing market is doing very well.

I am happy; everthing is coming up roses. Doomers and gloomers should sit in the back of the bus. BTW, Greenspan has been parroting the word recession since that stupid fucker left as Fed. Chair.

Cold Warrior
06-27-2008, 02:54 PM
My stocks in May went up big time--not so hot in June but that's to be expected by the old saying "go away in May"

My institutional portfolios behaved the same as yours. I did ok in June with my day trade hobby, as I was able to anticipate a number of factors. What this has to do with the general economic picture, I'm not sure. :confused:


Oil will keep going up until the dummies in DC get serious about new drilling, nuke plants, etc.

Which is the forseeable future (oil will keep going up), as none of the measures you (or anyone else) cites will be effective in the short term. This will have the predictable ripple effect throughout the economy on retail prices, the cost of food, and the costs of doing business.


An increase in GDP is better than a decrease. BTW, that .6% was upgraded to 1% Yea

Yes, and a 2% drop is better than a 4% drop. What we are trying to get at here is a view of reality, not some politcally-flavored distortion of the truth. In point of fact, given the inordinate increase in the cost of gas and food during those two quarters, to calculate a growth number without consideration of such (no matter what the precedence was), is just plain silly. The economy is in the shits and no PR from the Idiot Child can really change that.


Housing starts-- need to sell the ones on the market before a shit-pot load of new ones are built. However, in my part of the country, the economy and the housing market is doing very well.

You're in Louisiana, correct. Well, damn! That's the solution. Let's knock down a considerable percentage of the housing in Wisconsin, and then, a couple of years later, brag that housing starts are just fine, thank you.

If you're denying that the number of housing starts has declined significantly in the US over the last 18 months, you're incorrect. Additionally, that clearly has a ripple (there's that word again) effect throughout the economy as all the industries, from construction to appliances, that support the housing industry are affected.


I am happy; everthing is coming up roses. Doomers and gloomers should sit in the back of the bus. BTW, Greenspan has been parroting the word recession since that stupid fucker left as Fed. Chair.

I'm happy too. Because I've got all the scotch and women's rear ends that I'll ever need. And then, after I'm dead, f**k the rest of you.

Lager
06-27-2008, 03:06 PM
I'm happy too. Because I've got all the scotch and women's rear ends that I'll ever need. And then, after I'm dead, f**k the rest of you.

I like the contents of your "survival kit" We should all do as well to keep our needs simple and basic. :)

LogansPapa
06-27-2008, 03:09 PM
Yep, price of 303 S/S just went up another 5% this week on my aircraft part material. I couldn’t be happier. :rolleyes:

lacarnut
06-27-2008, 03:16 PM
My institutional portfolios behaved the same as yours. I did ok in June with my day trade hobby, as I was able to anticipate a number of factors. What this has to do with the general economic picture, I'm not sure. :confused:



Which is the forseeable future (oil will keep going up), as none of the measures you (or anyone else) cites will be effective in the short term. This will have the predictable ripple effect throughout the economy on retail prices, the cost of food, and the costs of doing business.



Yes, and a 2% drop is better than a 4% drop. What we are trying to get at here is a view of reality, not some politcally-flavored distortion of the truth. In point of fact, given the inordinate increase in the cost of gas and food during those two quarters, to calculate a growth number without consideration of such (no matter what the precedence was), is just plain silly. The economy is in the shits and no PR from the Idiot Child can really change that.



You're in Louisiana, correct. Well, damn! That's the solution. Let's knock down a considerable percentage of the housing in Wisconsin, and then, a couple of years later, brag that housing starts are just fine, thank you.

If you're denying that the number of housing starts has declined significantly in the US over the last 18 months, you're incorrect. Additionally, that clearly has a ripple (there's that word again) effect throughout the economy as all the industries, from construction to appliances, that support the housing industry are affected.



I'm happy too. Because I've got all the scotch and women's rear ends that I'll ever need. And then, after I'm dead, f**k the rest of you.

When we get to a -2% , I will agree that it is better than a 4% drop. We are not there and I don;t expect it. The rebate checks will tide the economy over for the next 2 months and no one knows which way it will go after that.

Being from a state that has the 3rd largest refinery in the country and a multitue of chemical plants, my thought is fuck you yankees if you do not want to produce your own energy and chemicals. Louisiana is less prone to a recession because of our industries.

I am happy too; my house and my car are paid for, am retired and have everything I need. Don't have to rent a thing.

Cold Warrior
06-27-2008, 03:24 PM
I like the contents of your "survival kit" We should all do as well to keep our needs simple and basic.

The only three things you really need in life:


http://judithpordon.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/bob_dylan.jpg

http://www.armchairarcade.com/neo/system/files/images/pixel_butt.thumbnail.jpg

http://www.shoppersvineyard.com/img/productImages/02663.gif

And, oh yes, did I mention...


http://www.strangesports.com/images/content/102110.jpg

hampshirebrit
06-27-2008, 04:04 PM
... the most serious conflagration of problems, economic and national security, in the last 30 years are so and it's trending downward.

I'm late to this thread, but he's right, and all of our problems arise from one single one...they all have, at their root cause, increasing energy costs, which are in turn based partly on speculation, but more importantly, on an increasingly verifiable set of hard-stop supply fundamentals.

Find a way to reduce the real price of a barrel of oil, and everything else will take care of itself.

The wellbeing of our economy (i.e. our standard of living) is predicated and dependent on cheap energy. If the prices keep increasing as they have been doing, then the economies, one by one, will shut down, and this will happen in a relatively short time-span.

The commercial aviation industry will be the first to take the big hit (it's already started to happen). So-called globalisation and outsourcing initiatives will be next, with their dependencies of big-IT, which are already starting to build data-centers in the Arctic, just to reduce energy costs.

Look for mergers of big energy, airline and IT companies in the near future, as a guide.

Until quite recently, we have squandered the time we have been given to sort the energy problem out, which we have known was coming for years.

We need to aggressively develop and exploit existing resources, now, in order to buy ourselves enough time to continue to develop viable, scaleable alternatives to long-chain hydrocarbon fossil fuels.

Those alternatives are out there, now, but they will require a lot of dedicated and sustained effort to make them scale up and out, and the required effort will not be cheap, and the required effort will probably be painful.

More importantly, the longer we leave it, the more painful it will be, and the longer we leave it, the less likely it will be that the efforts that we are making will succeed, and quite obviously, each one of these will have very, very negative effects on our way of life.

The way I see it, prices are going to have to increase way, way beyond where we currently are at, just in order to support the required effort.

The balancing act will be to keep energy prices as high as possible, at the point that they will deter unnecessary use and just below the point that they will collapse the economy.

We do live in interesting times, that's for sure.

LogansPapa
06-27-2008, 04:19 PM
Maybe Bush is a genius.

Not likely - but this venture into ‘oil country’ (our folly in the Middle East) might be part of someone’s master plan - an alternate to the Japanese’s reaction to our cutting off their source of oil prior to WWII. Piss the Arabs off to the point that they start some high caliber shooting and we just go in a blow the living Hell out of everyone and nationalise the entire region for their natural resources.

It might cost tens-of-thousands of casualties on our side, but remember, nobody ever said war was without cost.

hampshirebrit
06-27-2008, 04:23 PM
Maybe Bush is a genius.

Not likely - but this venture into ‘oil country’ (our folly in the Middle East) might be part of someone’s master plan - an alternate to the Japanese’s reaction to our cutting off their source of oil prior to WWII. Piss the Arabs off to the point that they start some high caliber shooting and we just go in a blow the living Hell out of everyone and nationalise the entire region for their natural resources.

It might cost tens-of-thousands of casualties on our side, but remember, nobody ever said war was without cost.

Sounds good to me.

Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil are far better at exploration, management and recovery than Saudi Aramco.

LogansPapa
06-27-2008, 05:26 PM
U.S. Stocks Slump, Pushing Dow Average to Brink of Bear Market

By Michael Patterson

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the brink of a bear market, on concern subprime-related writedowns at banks will worsen and record oil and a slowing economy will prolong the worst profit decline since 2002.

The Dow extended its retreat from an all-time high in October to almost 20 percent, the threshold for a so-called bear market. American International Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. helped send the Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index to the lowest level since March 2003 on speculation of mounting losses. Consumer stocks in the S&P 500 slipped to a five-year low as oil topped $142 a barrel.

The Dow lost 115.29 points, or 1 percent, to 11,338.13 at 3:31 p.m. in New York, leaving it 6.51 points away from a bear market. The 30-stock measure fell 10 percent this month for the worst June since 1930. The S&P 500 slid 6.50, or 0.5 percent, to 1,276.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 11.80, or 0.5 percent, to 2,309.57. Seven stocks declined for every four that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPHeEBSQBj2k&refer=worldwide

lacarnut
06-27-2008, 07:36 PM
U.S. Stocks Slump, Pushing Dow Average to Brink of Bear Market

By Michael Patterson

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the brink of a bear market, on concern subprime-related writedowns at banks will worsen and record oil and a slowing economy will prolong the worst profit decline since 2002.

The Dow extended its retreat from an all-time high in October to almost 20 percent, the threshold for a so-called bear market. American International Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. helped send the Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index to the lowest level since March 2003 on speculation of mounting losses. Consumer stocks in the S&P 500 slipped to a five-year low as oil topped $142 a barrel.

The Dow lost 115.29 points, or 1 percent, to 11,338.13 at 3:31 p.m. in New York, leaving it 6.51 points away from a bear market. The 30-stock measure fell 10 percent this month for the worst June since 1930. The S&P 500 slid 6.50, or 0.5 percent, to 1,276.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 11.80, or 0.5 percent, to 2,309.57. Seven stocks declined for every four that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPHeEBSQBj2k&refer=worldwide

Buy domestic med. cap drillers of oil/natural gas, coal along with chemical stocks and prosper. Watch what happens the last trading day of the month (Monday) which on average gives investors a 2% gain because of increased volume. Also, by the end of next week when reports of June's retail sales come in, the market will go up because of consumers spending their rebate checks. May was a great month, June a shitty one and July will be a great one. I am betting on it.

lacarnut
06-27-2008, 08:18 PM
Maybe Bush is a genius.

Not likely - but this venture into ‘oil country’ (our folly in the Middle East) might be part of someone’s master plan - an alternate to the Japanese’s reaction to our cutting off their source of oil prior to WWII. Piss the Arabs off to the point that they start some high caliber shooting and we just go in a blow the living Hell out of everyone and nationalise the entire region for their natural resources.

It might cost tens-of-thousands of casualties on our side, but remember, nobody ever said war was without cost.

The Iraq's only want the west's expertise in purchasing equipment and technology. The Iraq's will provide their own labor for the actual drilling. Giving away our technology may not be such a great idea. Chavez found out the hard way that EXXON was a valuable partner in drilling for oil. Since EXXON left, their production has gone down considerably.

If we ever wanted to bring these oil rich M.E. and commie countries to their knees we could do 2 things. Prohibit the sale of oil equipment (rigs) and parts along with bar any US company from doing business with them and cut off food exports.