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View Full Version : The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 day



megimoo
06-23-2008, 06:58 PM
Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say

"The problem is most of the oil future traders are in London who would tell the Washington mob to sit on a peg. The trade orders are sent to London and the boards are there ."

Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.

Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters' assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.

Krapels said that it wouldn't even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets."Dingle huffs and he puffs but he don't blow nothing down !"

"Record oil prices are inflated by speculation and not justified by market fundamentals," according to Gheit. "Based on supply and demand fundamentals, crude-oil prices should not be above $60 per barrel."
Futures trading in London has not been a major factor in rising oil prices, testified Sir Bob Reid, chairman of the Chairman of London-based ICE Futures Europe. Rising prices are largely a function of fundamental supply and demand, not manipulation or speculation, he said.

"Energy speculation has become a growth industry and it is time for the government to intervene," said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the full committee. "We need to consider a full range of options to counter this rapacious speculation." It was Dingell's strongest statement yet on the role of


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-could-fall-2-if/story.aspx?guid=%7B2673C102%2D68E0%2D41D9%2D9C9A%2 D10EE2E723948%7D&dist=TNMostRead

Elspeth
06-23-2008, 07:01 PM
"The problem is most of the oil future traders are in London would tell Washington mob to sit on a peg the trade orders are sent to London and the boards are there ."


The grammar is confusing here and I am not exactly sure what the message is.

megimoo
06-23-2008, 07:02 PM
The grammar is confusing here and I am not exactly sure what the message is."The problem is most of the oil future traders are in London who would tell the Washington mob to sit on a peg .The trade orders are sent to London and the boards are there ."

lacarnut
06-23-2008, 07:21 PM
The problem of high oil prices has not been caused by speculators exclusively. The Congressional Democraps think they can manupilate the market. After they screw that up, what is next? Nationalize refineries, meat, wheat, and corn products; prices are at all time highs and government interference will only make prices go higher.

jinxmchue
06-23-2008, 10:43 PM
Didn't this whole $100+/barrel situation really start with some dipwad smartaleck pulling a stunt?

Constitutionally Speaking
06-24-2008, 08:13 AM
The problem of high oil prices has not been caused by speculators exclusively. The Congressional Democraps think they can manupilate the market. After they screw that up, what is next? Nationalize refineries, meat, wheat, and corn products; prices are at all time highs and government interference will only make prices go higher.



Correct. The ONLY reason the speculators have any real influence is that the supply of oil simply is not meeting demand. That means that any POTENTIAL disruption of the supply sends the speculators out, bidding up the price because they anticipate prices being higher in the future. If we were to increase supply (or reduce demand) enough to create a significant cushion between supply and demand, the panic that drives the speculation would cease to exist. I have run the numbers and $2.00 gasoline is a reasonable figure if we had the cushion we had a decade ago.

Hell, in 2004 we had a cushion of1.1 million barrels per day and prices were @ $30.00 per barrel. As that cushion eroded, prices skyrocketed. The is now a 1 million barrel per day SHORTAGE.

By producing JUST 2 million barrels of oil per day, oil prices would reduce to the neighborhood of $75- $85/ Barrel - assuming all other sources keep producing at expected rates and demand increase remains stable. Increasing the cushion more than that would send prices plummeting further.

Cold Warrior
06-24-2008, 08:34 AM
...

By producing JUST 2 million barrels of oil per day, oil prices would reduce to the neighborhood of $75- $85/ Barrel - assuming all other sources keep producing at expected rates and demand increase remains stable. Increasing the cushion more than that would send prices plummeting further.

The Saudis just increased it by 700000 barrels per day, 35% of the increase you specify. Oil prices did not plummet, but effectively remained stable in the $136 per barrel range. The price of oil is as high as it is because of the weakness of the dollar.

Constitutionally Speaking
06-24-2008, 01:40 PM
They actually did not. They PROMISED to increase production. They have made these empty promises before and have not followed through. The market simply does not believe them anymore. Even if I am wrong and missed that they actually DID increase production, an increase of supply by that amount probably would not affect prices significantly anyway.

The KEY is that the cushion between supply and demand be enough to absorb any surprise interruption in supply. With demand out-pacing supply by 1 million barrels per day, we simply do not have that cushion. Production of oil needs to exceed demand by enough to accomplish an effective cushion. I could be wrong on the cushion needed, but finding that cushion is the key to stop the speculation.

This is not to say the falling dollar has nothing to do with it, but at it's core, the price of oil is Supply and Demand and the perception of what supply and demand will be in the future.

patriot45
06-24-2008, 01:45 PM
Just let congress pass a new law that 1 gallon = 32 ounces, that would knock the price for a gallon down!

megimoo
06-24-2008, 02:07 PM
Didn't this whole $100+/barrel situation really start with some dipwad smartaleck pulling a stunt?
Yes it did, he ran the price up and lost a wad of dough doing it !

Cold Warrior
06-24-2008, 03:34 PM
They actually did not. They PROMISED to increase production. They have made these empty promises before and have not followed through. The market simply does not believe them anymore. Even if I am wrong and missed that they actually DID increase production, an increase of supply by that amount probably would not affect prices significantly anyway.

The KEY is that the cushion between supply and demand be enough to absorb any surprise interruption in supply. With demand out-pacing supply by 1 million barrels per day, we simply do not have that cushion. Production of oil needs to exceed demand by enough to accomplish an effective cushion. I could be wrong on the cushion needed, but finding that cushion is the key to stop the speculation.

This is not to say the falling dollar has nothing to do with it, but at it's core, the price of oil is Supply and Demand and the perception of what supply and demand will be in the future.

You're correct in that the Saudis have not yet started to pump the extra oil. The new targets are slated to go into effect on 01 July. However, I don't think you're correct in your assessment that the market doesn't believe them. I work on the Street a lot, though not in the commodities markets. Traders believe the Saudis, but they don't think that amount will affect their prices, as they see demand immediately exceeding any additional supply in those types of ranges (700k-2M).

That's why I contend there is no short term fix in terms of supply and demand. The real short-term fix is to get the dollar back to at least $1.25 to the Euro and you will see a significant drop in the price. That's also not to say that long term fixes, particularly nuclear and other alternatives, should not be initiated as well. However, I despair as to the existence of any politician with the vision and the courage to take those long-term measures.

linda22003
06-24-2008, 03:38 PM
The real short-term fix is to get the dollar back to at least $1.25 to the Euro and you will see a significant drop in the price.

Not to mention a significant surge in my interest in the Greek islands as a vacation destination next spring.

lacarnut
06-24-2008, 04:07 PM
The Saudis just increased it by 700000 barrels per day, 35% of the increase you specify. Oil prices did not plummet, but effectively remained stable in the $136 per barrel range. The price of oil is as high as it is because of the weakness of the dollar.

The first story that broke was that they were going to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day; the latest I have heard, it will be a 200,000 increase starting on July 1.

After everyone spends their rebate checks, I look for people to start driving less and the price of a barrel of oil to go down. That does not necessarily mean that gasoline prices will drop proportionally because the refineries profit margins are slim. Less gasoline usage combined with a no interest rate cut by the Feds, the dollar will rise.

ConJinx
06-24-2008, 04:09 PM
Unreal. It is so completely unacceptable to think that we as Americans cannot solve our energy crisis, and yes it is a crisis, in 3 to 5 years. Yet to hear our prospective Pres. candidates, in this the 21st century it will take a GENERATION? Of course realistically, with all the nonsense these same type of idiotic politicians, the barriers to progress, the pandering to looney enviro-wackos, the NIMBY morons, you couldn't get a windmill built, let alone a nuke plant. 20 years it took just to get the paperwork for Yucca mountain. Is it that they are purposefully trying destroy our economy, our very existence as a nation. I try not to believe in conspiracy theories, that the North American Union is some crazy tin-foil hat delusion, but why on God's little blue marble is nothing being done. Just moments ago the dems put forth a proposal in the house to stop price gouging; WHHAATT. We the people are not being heard. It is time we get the pitchforks and torches and start ending the careers of career politicians. It didn't even take 20 years from the Declaration Of Independence to the completion of our Constitution, and we had to fight the British empire.

megimoo
06-24-2008, 04:17 PM
Unreal. It is so completely unacceptable to think that we as Americans cannot solve our energy crisis, and yes it is a crisis, in 3 to 5 years. Yet to hear our prospective Pres. candidates, in this the 21st century it will take a GENERATION? Of course realistically, with all the nonsense these same type of idiotic politicians, the barriers to progress, the pandering to looney enviro-wackos, the NIMBY morons, you couldn't get a windmill built, let alone a nuke plant. 20 years it took just to get the paperwork for Yucca mountain. Is it that they are purposefully trying destroy our economy, our very existence as a nation. I try not to believe in conspiracy theories, that the North American Union is some crazy tin-foil hat delusion, but why on God's little blue marble is nothing being done. Just moments ago the dems put forth a proposal in the house to stop price gouging; WHHAATT. We the people are not being heard. It is time we get the pitchforks and torches and start ending the careers of career politicians. It didn't even take 20 years from the Declaration Of Independence to the completion of our Constitution, and we had to fight the British empire. Best words I've heard all day especially this "It is time we get the pitchforks and torches and start ending the careers of Liberal and RINO career politicians. "