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View Full Version : New Staggering Stats for SF Bay Area Earthquake Risk



megimoo
02-02-2009, 02:16 PM
One out of four buildings could crumble in San Francisco if another Loma Prieta size earthquake strikes. 30,000 of San Francisco's 120,000 buildings might be destroyed in an earthquake similar to 1989's Loma Prieta rumble according to a San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) report. Most at risk are "soft-story" residential buildings, which are generally homes or apartments built above parking lots and retail spaces.

Nearly half the homes damaged in the '89 quake were soft-story structures. Since the most vulnerable buildings are residential, the post-quake recovery efforts could be hampered by massive homelessness much like the displacement... snip

A recent report from the city's Department of Building Inspection suggests that $1.5 billion in damages could be avoided if 2,800 of the at-risk structures were required to retrofit for earthquake safety.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has not been in favor of mandatory retrofits, though is reconsidering his stance after recent reports.

However, with the city budget in arrears, real estate prices plummeting and the credit crunch affecting projects like the mayor's pet solar panel rebate program, any government mandated seismic safety program will likely prove unpopular.

At least, until it's too late.

The dry, cloudless skies San Franciscans have been enjoying of late is sometimes superstitiously referred to as "earthquake weather" among residents, and scientists predict that the next tectonic dance party will be significantly more powerful than the one twenty years ago.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/New-Staggering-Stats-for-SF-Earthquake-Risk.html


1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

Loma Prieta earthquake Date October 17, 1989
Magnitude 6.9 Mw
Depth: 18 kilometres (11 mi)
Epicenter location: Forest of Nisene Marks State Park, California
Countries/regions affected United States (San Francisco Bay Area)
Max. intensity: VIII - Destructive Casualties: 63 killed, 3,757 injured

The Loma Prieta earthquake, also known as the Quake of '89 and the World Series Quake, was a major earthquake that struck the San Francisco Bay Area of California on October 17, 1989 at 5:04 p.m. local time. Caused by a slip along the San Andreas Fault, the earthquake lasted approximately 15 seconds and measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale (surface-wave magnitude 7.1).

The quake killed 63 people throughout northern California, injured 3,757 people and left some 8,000 to 12,000 people homeless.

The earthquake occurred during the warm-up for the third game of the 1989 World Series, coincidentally featuring both of the Bay Area's Major League Baseball teams, the Oakland Athletics and the San Francisco Giants. This was the first major earthquake in America to be broadcast on live television.

noonwitch
02-02-2009, 03:04 PM
Sooner or later, a quake is going to hit either SF or LA that will make none of the building safety codes matter. Everything will be destroyed, except maybe the Transamerica pyramid (it is allegedly "earthquake-proof") and wooden structures.

And, if Lex Luthor in the old Superman movie was right, Nevada will be the new beach on the Pacific. I think the quake has to hit a couple of nuclear reactors for that to happen, though.

Zathras
02-02-2009, 03:16 PM
I was working on the road that day in South San Jose. I was stopped at a light and had my head down in the car adjusting the radio for the World Series game when the quake hit. At first I thought the car was dying because it felt like it started ideling really rough. I then heard a noise like thunder to my right - it was the awning of the gas station on the corner shaking like crazy. They say it only lasted 15 seconds but it was the longest 15 seconds I've ever experienced.

megimoo
02-02-2009, 04:06 PM
I was working on the road that day in South San Jose. I was stopped at a light and had my head down in the car adjusting the radio for the World Series game when the quake hit. At first I thought the car was dying because it felt like it started ideling really rough. I then heard a noise like thunder to my right - it was the awning of the gas station on the corner shaking like crazy. They say it only lasted 15 seconds but it was the longest 15 seconds I've ever experienced.
I was in a restaurant in Santa Clara with two South American customers having dinner after just closing on a system purchase.We were talking about the differences in the food between their country and California when it started shaking .

At first I thought I was having a stroke with the lightheadedness but when I looked up the big overhead lighting fixture was jumping up and down .I tried to get them out of the building but they were frozen in place so I headed for the nearest exit and stood or rather tried to stand in the bars doorway to the parking lot .The barmaid was crying and shaking saying that this was the 'big one' between drinks that she gulped down .

Looking out at the cement block parking wall sliding in place, the top course slipping one way and the bottom course slipping the other like saw blades .After it stopped I collected my customers and took them back their hotel and spent some time in the bar with them to calm them and me down after our fears.That makes about ten California quakes I've been through !

Lars1701a
02-02-2009, 04:10 PM
It would do this country good wiping out all those fags and tax leaches in one fell swoop. :D

AHeneen
02-02-2009, 04:24 PM
It would do this country good wiping out all those fags and tax leaches in one fell swoop. :D

Same line of thought here! :D And they can't blame Bush for it.

At least here in FL, we don't get earthquakes! And with hurricanes, you get days of warning to board up, pack important belongings, & flee.

megimoo
02-02-2009, 04:27 PM
It would do this country good wiping out all those fags and tax leaches in one fell swoop. :DThere must be at least a hundred straight people living in San Farncisco Aka Sodom By the Bay !:rolleyes:

Lars1701a
02-02-2009, 04:27 PM
Same line of thought here! :D And they can't blame Bush for it.

Come now you are a smart person you very well know they will blame Bush for it. Something along the lines: due to his budget cuts poor people had to eat fatty foods making them heavy and all the extra weight caused:D part of CA to fall into the ocean.

Defiant1
02-02-2009, 04:51 PM
There must be at least a hundred straight people living in San Farncisco Aka Sodom By the Bay !:rolleyes:


We will honor their sacrifice.

megimoo
02-02-2009, 05:19 PM
Come now you are a smart person you very well know they will blame Bush for it. Something along the lines: due to his budget cuts poor people had to eat fatty foods making them heavy and all the extra weight caused:D part of CA to fall into the ocean.

It can't fall into the ocean because of the Juan De Fuca plate subducting the North American plate .There are no gaps between plates so all California can do is to move slowly North slipping and quaking all along the way .The plates slip suddenly, causing a subduction zone earthquake.

Juan de Fuca Plate :
snip
This subducting plate system has formed the volcanic Cascade Range, the Cascade Volcanoes and the Pacific Ranges, which is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, along the west coast of North America from southern British Columbia to northern California.

The last major earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone was the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, estimated to have a moment magnitude of 8.7 to 9.2.

Based on carbon dating of local tsunami deposits, it occurred around 1700. As reported in National Geographic on December 8, 2003, Japanese tsunami records indicate the quake happened the evening of Tuesday, January 26, 1700.

In 2008, small earthquakes were observed within the plate. The unusual quakes were described as "more than 600 quakes over the past 10 days in a basin 150 miles southwest of Newport." The quakes were unlike most quakes in that they did not follow the pattern of a large quake, followed by smaller aftershocks; rather, they were simply a continual deluge of small quakes.

Furthermore, they did not occur on the tectonic plate boundary, but rather in the middle of the plate. The subterranean quakes were heard on hydrophones, and scientists described the sounds as similar to thunder, and unlike anything heard previously.

Zathras
02-02-2009, 06:00 PM
It would do this country good wiping out all those fags and tax leaches in one fell swoop. :D

Hey, if a quake that big hits SF, it's going to affect a wider area than just the City....including me. So the good will be dying and getting hurt with the bad.

Lars1701a
02-02-2009, 06:03 PM
Hey, if a quake that big hits SF, it's going to affect a wider area than just the City....including me. So the good will be dying and getting hurt with the bad.


Well you better move then lol

megimoo
02-02-2009, 06:09 PM
Swarm of earthquakes detected off Oregon
Undersea quake swarm puzzles the experts

Volcanoes are not randomly distributed over the Earth's surface. Most are concentrated on the edges of continents, along island chains, or beneath the sea forming long mountain ranges. More than half of the world's active volcanoes above sea level encircle the Pacific Ocean to form the circum-Pacific "Ring of Fire." In the past 25 years, scientists have developed a theory -- called plate tectonics -- that explains the locations of volcanoes and their relationship to other large-scale geologic features.

According to this theory, the Earth's surface is made up of a patchwork of about a dozen large plates that move relative to one another at speeds from less than one centimeter to about ten centimeters per year (about the speed at which fingernails grow). These rigid plates, whose average thickness is about 80 kilometers, are spreading apart, sliding past each other, or colliding with each other in slow motion on top of the Earth's hot, pliable interior. Volcanoes tend to form where plates collide or spread apart, but they can also grow in the middle of a plate, as for example the Hawaiian volcanoes.

The boundary between the Pacific and Juan de Fuca Plates is marked by a broad submarine mountain chain about 500 kilometers long, known as the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Young volcanoes, lava flows, and hot springs were discovered in a broad valley less than 8 kilometers wide along the crest of the ridge in the 1970's. The ocean floor is spreading apart and forming new ocean crust along this valley or "rift" as hot magma from the Earth's interior is injected into the ridge and erupted at its top.

In the Pacific Northwest, the Juan de Fuca Plate plunges beneath the North American Plate. As the denser plate of oceanic crust if forced deep into the Earth's interior beneath the continental plate, a process known as subduction, it encounters high temperatures and pressures that partially melt solid rock. Some of this newly formed magma rises toward the Earth's surface to erupt, forming a chain of volcanoes above the subduction zone.

Located in the middle of the Pacific Plate, the volcanoes of the Hawaiian Island chain are among the largest on Earth. The volcanoes stretch 2,500 kilometers across the north Pacific Ocean and become progressively older to the northwest. Formed initially above a relatively stationary "hot spot" in the Earth's interior, each volcano was rafted away from the hot spot as the Pacific Plate moves northwestward at about 9 centimeters per year. The island of Hawaii consists of the youngest volcanoes in the chain and is currently located over the hot spot.

Oregon State U. / Hatfield Marine Science Center
The earthquake swarm (with red, yellow, brown, purple dots representing different days) is located in a basin in the middle of the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate. In this undersea chart, the plate's ridge is the angled line to the left of the swarm. The boundary of the North American plate and the Oregon coastline can be seen to the right.
Image:Tectonic plates
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Image:Tectonic-plates.png

WHAT CAUSES EARTHQUAKES ?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7807001

GRANTS PASS, Ore. Scientists listening to underwater microphones have detected an unusual swarm of earthquakes off central Oregon, something that often happens before a volcanic eruption -- except there are no volcanoes in the area.
Scientists don't know exactly what the earthquakes mean, but they could be the result of molten rock rumbling away from the recognized earthquake faults off Oregon, said Robert Dziak, a geophysicist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Oregon State University.

There have been more than 600 quakes over the past 10 days in a basin 150 miles southwest of Newport. The biggest was magnitude 5.4, and two others were more than magnitude 5.0, OSU reported.

On the hydrophones, the quakes sound like low thunder and are unlike anything scientists have heard in 17 years of listening, Dziak said. Some of the quakes have also been detected by earthquake instruments on land.

The hydrophones are left over from a network the Navy used to listen for submarines during the Cold War. They routinely detect passing ships, earthquakes on the ocean bottom and whales calling to one another. the underwater microphones of the Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) can track singing blue, fin, humpback and

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2008-04-11-918343630_x.htm

megimoo
02-02-2009, 06:29 PM
Hey, if a quake that big hits SF, it's going to affect a wider area than just the City....including me. So the good will be dying and getting hurt with the bad.

April 2 - 3 California Earthquake Forecast; San Jose

CLOSE [X] 4.5+ earthquake possible in the San Francisco area. 4.0+ earthquake possible in far NW California. 4.0+ possible in the coastal areas from San Diego north to Los Angeles and then north ot Bakersfield... Please see video for details.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d29_1206999796

SarasotaRepub
02-02-2009, 08:22 PM
On the hydrophones, the quakes sound like low thunder and are unlike anything scientists have heard in 17 years of listening, Dziak said. Some of the quakes have also been detected by earthquake instruments on land.



It's Godzilla. :D