End of the Recession in 2009? (Fed Models show PORKULUS Bill was NOT NEEDED!!)

[megimoo]

End of the Recession in 2009? (Fed Models show PORKULUS Bill was NOT NEEDED!!)

According to the New York Fed, "Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity." Monday, the New York Fed released its latest "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread," with data through January 2009 and its recession probability forecast through 2010 (see chart above, click to enlarge). The NY Fed's model uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead (see chart below of the Treasury spread)....


http://seekingalpha.com/article/118339-end-of-the-recession-in-2009

[tacitus]

Needed or not, it's now with us and future generations to pay back. Besides it gives the socialists the warm fuzzy feeling they want when they spend money and expand the government.

[PoliCon]

they got everything that the GOP congress of the 90 did - UNDONE in one fell swoop. Of course it needed done! How else were they going to undo welfare reform??

[Constitutionally Speaking]

This is something I have forecasted - and also have posted about it here.

There are potential deal killers, but as of the Data available last Dec., when I ran the numbers on this, the recession should end late summer.

The reasons for this are several - the oil price decline we saw last summer and the inevitable bottoming out of the housing market being primary amongst the reasons.