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Constitutionally Speaking
05-31-2008, 08:29 AM
1 TRILLION barrels of oil in shale from under the Rocky Mountains

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=18132


- we can't touch it
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/may/15/panel-defeats-attempt-end-oil-shale-moratorium/

5.7 Billion barrels of oil in ANWR

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/arctic_national_wildlife_refuge/html/execsummary.html

- we can't touch it.
http://www.klamathbasincrisis.org/oil/demsstopANWRoil050708.htm

5.9 Billion barrels of oil in NPRA
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs045-02/

- we can't touch it.
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/327390290.shtml

200 BILLION barrels of oil in N. Dakota

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.705276/browse_thread/thread/20deebc8b9379e5f

- we can't touch it.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2008/03/22/news/opinion/letters/151579.txt

Add these up (all are low end estimates) and you get 1,211,600,000,000 barrels of oil in just those 4 areas. If we multiply 365 days x 21,000,000 daily consumption in barrels and you get an annual consumption of 7,665,000,000 barrels. If you divide that into the low end estimate of available oil in JUST the four areas mentioned above, you find that we have enough oil RIGHT HERE to be COMPLETELY independent of mideast oil for 158 years at current consumption rates.

Why can't we go after our own oil???

The other problem we have with the price of Gas is we cannot refine it fast enough.

What are the issues preventing this???

No new refining capacity for over 30 years. Why???? Lawsuits brought by environmentalists and restrictions made by politicians.

Who is resposible for this???? Guess.

Environmentalists and Democrats and the press.


Are you fed up with $4.00 gas????

Who should you blame??? Environmentalists, the Press and Democrats.

Constitutionally Speaking
05-31-2008, 08:31 AM
“Here’s one of the biggest steps forward for the Midwest, really the whole nation,” Mr. Daniels, a Republican, told reporters last week. “I don’t think it should be held up without a good scientific reason, and none has been provided.”

According to documents on BP’s Web site, the new permit allows the refinery to discharge 1,584 pounds of ammonia, an increase of 54 percent over the current level, into the lake each day. Also allowed is discharge of up to 4,925 pounds of suspended solids into the lake each day, an increase of 35 percent. .

Scott Dean, a spokesman for BP, said that the Indiana permit’s requirements were stricter than federal requirements, and that BP expected to operate well within those limits.

“We followed the regulatory process to the letter and did everything by the book,” Mr. Dean said.

The protests against the permit have been loudest from Chicago, Indiana’s urban neighbor to the northwest, where Mayor Richard M. Daley has been striving to create a green image for the city and its 30 miles of lakeshore. A committee of the Chicago City Council is scheduled to discuss the matter on Thursday.

The Illinois governor, Rod R. Blagojevich, a Democrat, has threatened legal action to stop the additional discharge of pollutants.

The permit is part of BP’s plan to expand and modernize the Whiting refinery, which was built in 1889 by the Standard Oil Company and which now processes 405,000 barrels of crude oil each day. About 1,700 people work at the facility, and BP has an annual payroll of about $100 million in Indiana. The expansion is set for completion in 2011.

BP documents said the company would also spend $150 million to improve its wastewater treatment plant in Whiting, from which it discharges about 20 million gallons of treated wastewater a day, including the ammonia and suspended solids addressed by the permit, into Lake Michigan.


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/31/us/31refinery.html


Just one example the EPA approved it, yet that is not good enough - the enviro-idiots and their toadies are trying to stop it.

Space Gravy
05-31-2008, 08:39 AM
1 TRILLION barrels of oil in shale from under the Rocky Mountains

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=18132


- we can't touch it
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/may/15/panel-defeats-attempt-end-oil-shale-moratorium/

5.7 Billion barrels of oil in ANWR

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/arctic_national_wildlife_refuge/html/execsummary.html

- we can't touch it.
http://www.klamathbasincrisis.org/oil/demsstopANWRoil050708.htm

5.9 Billion barrels of oil in NPRA
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs045-02/

- we can't touch it.
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/327390290.shtml

200 BILLION barrels of oil in N. Dakota

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.705276/browse_thread/thread/20deebc8b9379e5f

- we can't touch it.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2008/03/22/news/opinion/letters/151579.txt

Add these up (all are low end estimates) and you get 1,211,600,000,000 barrels of oil in just those 4 areas. If we multiply 365 days x 21,000,000 daily consumption in barrels and you get an annual consumption of 7,665,000,000 barrels. If you divide that into the low end estimate of available oil in JUST the four areas mentioned above, you find that we have enough oil RIGHT HERE to be COMPLETELY independent of mideast oil for 158 years at current consumption rates.

Why can't we go after our own oil???

The other problem we have with the price of Gas is we cannot refine it fast enough.

What are the issues preventing this???

No new refining capacity for over 30 years. Why???? Lawsuits brought by environmentalists and restrictions made by politicians.

Who is resposible for this???? Guess.

Environmentalists and Democrats and the pre






Environmentalists, the press and Democrats.

Are you fed up with $4.00 gas????
Who should you blame??? Environmentalists, the Press and Democrats.

With all talk of $200 a barrel oil $6.00 a gallon gas isn't far away.

megimoo
05-31-2008, 08:43 AM
With all talk of $200 a barrel oil $6.00 a gallon gas isn't far away.
Neither is a series of American political lynchings in Washington !

Constitutionally Speaking
05-31-2008, 08:56 AM
More lawsuits preventing building or making the cost of adding refining capacity prohibitive.


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/19/MNBSRGRGD.DTL&type=printable



http://www.cfejcorpuschristi.org/INSIDE%20EPA.pdf


http://www.blackmesais.org/EPArule.htm


http://www.cjonline.com/stories/051808/sta_280248011.shtml

http://www.ohiocitizen.org/campaigns/sunoco/sunoconews2005.html

Constitutionally Speaking
05-31-2008, 08:59 AM
With all talk of $200 a barrel oil $6.00 a gallon gas isn't far away.


The thing of it is, if we had acted on these 10 years ago, when the Democrats blocked them, we would still be paying between $ 2.25 and $ 2.50 a gallon. If not less.

There are REAL costs for voting Democrat or staying out in protest.

Space Gravy
05-31-2008, 09:04 AM
The thing of it is, if we had acted on these 10 years ago, when the Democrats blocked them, we would still be paying between $ 2.25 and $ 2.50 a gallon. If not less.

There are REAL costs for voting Democrat or staying out in protest.

It's just easier for most people to blame Bush.

Here's another log for the fire. It would be nice if grades could be standardized again.

Link (http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed040606b.cfm)

LogansPapa
05-31-2008, 10:19 AM
Stop being so silly. You go to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. You're the root cause of high priced oil.

135 years ago oil meant little to the world's economy. Then ships, automobiles and airplanes gradually came along and created a DEMAND for various finished products that came from crude.

No different now - it just hurts more because we're all junkies and we need the stuff that crude gives us.

800 million people will soon be able to buy little scooters in India and about a billion more in China will do the same (including buying ultra-polluting autos) and Kyoto will be just another dream someone had long ago. They will face zero regulations and we will continue to carry the heaviest on the planet.

We - by our greed - engineered this. Every time we got a supposed great deal at a 'Big Box Store' we were screwing our children's future. Eventually this will lead to war and unbridled land rape.

Seems to me there was a minor conflict in the Pacific about 70 years ago over the same thing.:rolleyes:

Get used to it, childrens. Buy a scooter from India and enjoy your 90 minute commute to work.:cool:

Aklover
05-31-2008, 11:38 AM
...........................and the Democrats will gain seats in the houses this coming election and quite possibly the presidency. The American people deserve to pay $5 agallon for letting this stupidity persist.

Nubs
05-31-2008, 11:50 AM
Some more good news.

Despite the best quality in the world and having more orders to fill than product we can make, my company just announced the closure of 1 machine out of 3. This will put 200 of 600 workers out of work. What is the cause??? OIL. I have worked here for under a year and our cost for oil has gone from $45MM/yr to over $60MM/yr.

Eyelids
05-31-2008, 03:46 PM
The whole point is to get off oil. What happens after 158 years? This mentality of keeping oil going for as long as we can is what's gotten us into the mess... quit being so shortsighted.

Aklover
05-31-2008, 04:50 PM
The whole point is to get off oil. What happens after 158 years? This mentality of keeping oil going for as long as we can is what's gotten us into the mess... quit being so shortsighted.



What cost effective marketable alternative do you have?

Hydrogen - insufficient tech to make it work, too costly to produce, way to costly to ship and store?
Ethanol - Still cannot compete with gasoline last I checked and that is with massive subsidization (Farm welfare queen handout) coupled with the fact no one buys it voluntarily thus station owners will not waste pump space to sell it. So the states have to mandate a percentage of Ethanol use in 87 octane.
Methanol - Actually might have a chance but it damages even flex fuel engines set up for Ethanol and gives a 55% capacity per gallon compared to gas thus you need to buy more to go the same distance making its actual market price to in excess of $2.80 to go the same distance as a gallon of gas. You would need to retrofit every engine in the country nearly to use it.
BioDiesel - Not enough resources available to make a dent in ggas usage even if all grease used in the US were mandated to be recycled/refined back into fuel.



So do you actually have anything to contribute to the discussion other than wishful thinking? Make a viable product that is cheaper than a gallon of gas and gets the same productivity all with a low initial entry cost and people will run to buy it. Problem is it does not exist yet.

sgrooms
05-31-2008, 04:54 PM
The thing of it is, if we had acted on these 10 years ago, when the Democrats blocked them, we would still be paying between $ 2.25 and $ 2.50 a gallon. If not less.

There are REAL costs for voting Democrat or staying out in protest.

And it will NEVER been seen in the MSM. Ever.

MrsSmith
05-31-2008, 06:48 PM
I'm sure the "thinking" people on this forum realize that before oil was used for heating and transportation, the methods used were both far more polluting and less efficient. Today, we take for granted the fact that resouces to save those hit by major natural disasters can be moved into place in a few days. Before oil was used for transportation, there would be no chance of assisting. We wouldn't have even known about it until after most died.

Today, we take it for granted that homes can be kept warm or cool enough that even our 80 and 90 year old family members are comfortable. How many think that was true 150 years ago?

Today we take it for granted that family members who move to another country, or across the country, or just to another state, can make it back home for holidays. Our children can go almost anywhere, and we will still see our grandchildren on occasion. 150 years ago?

Close to 100% of our current healthcare is due to oil. Compare the healthcare of 150 years ago and that of today...and try to figure out how we'd have temperature-controlled areas for vaccines and medications, MRI and CT scans, clean lights in clean surgery suites, etc. etc.

Our lives today exist as they are due to the use of oil. Unless something is developed that is as efficient as oil, everything we consider normal will change. And with the huge, huge reserves of oil held out of use simply by political manuvering, not many companies will devote the time and money to finding alternatives...why would they? They stand to lose all their investment just by the change of government policy.

3rd-try
05-31-2008, 07:13 PM
The whole point is to get off oil. What happens after 158 years? This mentality of keeping oil going for as long as we can is what's gotten us into the mess... quit being so shortsighted.



Do you have an original thought? Why do you buy into this "oil=evil" crap. It's a wonderfully efficient energy source that has become cleaner and more efficient as time goes on. Please look past your circle of sources for additional points of view.

3rd-try
05-31-2008, 07:20 PM
Stop being so silly. You go to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. You're the root cause of high priced oil.

135 years ago oil meant little to the world's economy. Then ships, automobiles and airplanes gradually came along and created a DEMAND for various finished products that came from crude.

No different now - it just hurts more because we're all junkies and we need the stuff that crude gives us.

800 million people will soon be able to buy little scooters in India and about a billion more in China will do the same (including buying ultra-polluting autos) and Kyoto will be just another dream someone had long ago. They will face zero regulations and we will continue to carry the heaviest on the planet.

We - by our greed - engineered this. Every time we got a supposed great deal at a 'Big Box Store' we were screwing our children's future. Eventually this will lead to war and unbridled land rape.

Seems to me there was a minor conflict in the Pacific about 70 years ago over the same thing.:rolleyes:

Get used to it, childrens. Buy a scooter from India and enjoy your 90 minute commute to work.:cool:

Fer Gawd's sake.....
Damn, will you stay on the specific theme here. It's about the US and meeting it's energy needs. The reality is, if we used our own resources we could be an energy independent nation. Poof goes the speculation driven prices we're "enjoying", and good ole supply and demand returns to the head of the class.

One might want to question why any attempt at this is shot down by the enviro-community and it's tolerated by the spineless fucks in our government.

nightflight
05-31-2008, 07:27 PM
Here's what's interesting to me. Cuba along with China will be attempting to drill oil from the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, have any of you heard any protests or condemnations from the environmental crowd? Greenpeace? Sierra Club? If they are really concerned about possible environmental hazards why aren't they raising their voices?

Constitutionally Speaking
05-31-2008, 09:52 PM
Here's what's interesting to me. Cuba along with China will be attempting to drill oil from the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, have any of you heard any protests or condemnations from the environmental crowd? Greenpeace? Sierra Club? If they are really concerned about possible environmental hazards why aren't they raising their voices?

Ah yes!!! And here we have our answer. The Environmental movement and the Dems are simply trying to undermine our country and our economic system. They have no problems with the dictators of the world and all of the harm they do, yet are quick to jump on our country.

Yet they continue to bitch when we call them anti-American. :confused:

Eyelids
05-31-2008, 10:41 PM
Do you have an original thought? Why do you buy into this "oil=evil" crap. It's a wonderfully efficient energy source that has become cleaner and more efficient as time goes on. Please look past your circle of sources for additional points of view.

What you call original I call idiotic.

SaintLouieWoman
05-31-2008, 10:58 PM
What you call original I call idiotic.
I'm sure 3rd-try is devastated by your comment. :rolleyes:

AlmostThere
05-31-2008, 11:40 PM
I'm sure 3rd-try is devastated by your comment. :rolleyes:
I was devastated for 3rd just reading it. :rolleyes:
I found the "what happens after 158 years? don't be so short shortsighted" to be hysterical. Let's see? How much advancement has been made between 1850 and today? :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

LogansPapa
05-31-2008, 11:56 PM
[QUOTE=3rd-try;1533]Fer Gawd's sake.....Damn, will you stay on the specific theme here. QUOTE]

:confused:I'm sorry - I do not understand. What part of my post didn't have to do with the current price of gasoline? Please explain.

MrsSmith
06-01-2008, 12:28 AM
What you call original I call idiotic.

Hold up a mirror...

Odysseus
06-01-2008, 12:31 AM
[QUOTE=3rd-try;1533]Fer Gawd's sake.....Damn, will you stay on the specific theme here. QUOTE]

:confused:I'm sorry - I do not understand. What part of my post didn't have to do with the current price of gasoline? Please explain.

Pretty much everything, although given the incoherence of your post, it's tough to tell. Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?



The whole point is to get off oil. What happens after 158 years? This mentality of keeping oil going for as long as we can is what's gotten us into the mess... quit being so shortsighted.

Okay, let's say that we get off of oil, eventually. It's not like it will happen overnight. Using domestic reserves would provide the following benefits:


We'd have an additional 158 years in which to make the transition.
We'd stop putting money into the hands of despotic regimes which use their oil revenues to spread horrific doctrines.
We'd lower the price of oil, which would lower the price of everything that is moved by petroleum-based trucks. Transportation costs are a tremendous part of consumer prices.
We could return land use to food production instead of energy production, reducing food prices globally.

Not using domestic reserves simply perpetuates the problem, while ensuring that we are gradually impoverished by rising energy costs and have to face the consequences of funding the global jihad, not to mention Hugo Chavez's odious regime. Oh, and when oil hits $200 a barrel, we will drill in ANWR, the Gulf of Mexico, off shore in California, not to mention in every patch of land larger than my backyard, so it's not like we'd be saving anything by simply trying to go cold turkey.

LogansPapa
06-01-2008, 12:36 AM
[QUOTE=LogansPapa;1622]

Pretty much everything, although given the incoherence of your post, it's tough to tell. Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?

Do you have much backround in manufacturing?

lacarnut
06-01-2008, 01:07 AM
The whole point is to get off oil. What happens after 158 years? This mentality of keeping oil going for as long as we can is what's gotten us into the mess... quit being so shortsighted.

There are hundreds of products made with by products of oil. You only get around 20 gallons of gasoline out of a barrel of oil. What do you think they do with the remaining half? Do some research first so that you do not sound so ignorant because there will always be a use for oil.

LogansPapa
06-01-2008, 01:52 AM
"Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?"

Basic manufacturing theory.

When an almost completely agrarian culture turns into a light and then mass production economy, dependable transportation is required to move people daily from rural areas and across cities to their new jobs making things - instead of growing things out in the country. To think that the last ten years of this mass conversion in both China and India hasn't had an effect on our oil and therefore gasoline price is just childish.

15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country, via Gestapo like pricing structures from their suppliers, as well as going to the Orient for all of their throw away items. The people working in the fields were the ones going to produce that mountain of crap that we take for granted today. We created the demand for those crap makers and that reality carries on to the present.

As wages increase in Asia those people won't be satisfied with setting in their huts without refrigeration or basic transportation. I'm sorry if you can't make this connection, but if you've never been to Asia, it's hard to explain the numbers. R.J. Reynolds was sued for billions of dollars, you'll recall, and really won't lose a dime in profit because of countries like China and India. As our Congress was running their executives through a thrashing mill, their company was putting the finishing touches on over a dozen cigarette manufacturing plants over there.

American smokes are a real status item in the Orient and once the population has got their taste for them - there's no turning back. Our tobacco companies could really care less if they ever sell another carton of smokes here in the States. Nearly two billion customers have their focus elsewhere.

So the everyday Working Joe in China that's never had electricity, a television, maybe only a bicycle to get him from one place to another, only dung cigarettes, and no thought of medical care isn't going back to his leaky hut. They've seen the candy store, via menial factory jobs and now they want to produce better products - the $25 to $500 items that Americans produce presently. No reason, economically, and according to the bean counters, for these jobs to remain here. None.

Show me ANY fastener on ANY American made vehicle that's still made in the United States and I'll show you some very old inventory discovered in a warehouse somewhere. More critical metal items once made here, then Mexico, are now made in Mainland China. That takes electricity. A giant butt-load of it - 24 hours per day. Try to pay a realistic price for say a 3KVA Diesel Generator on the open market today - and you'll be floored by how much any dealer, new or used, wants for them.

The Chinese government infrastructure can't meet even half the demand for electrical power, so the shops coming on shore are simply setting up their operations with these portable generators - until a coal plant can be brought on line. Their government's printing money as quickly as the presses will knock out the bills - with nothing but the United States' debt to cover it.

This is the 'Progressive Chain' that is being notched up in the Orient and their working folk won't be satisfied with making junk forever. Their path is much like what happened in Japan in the 1950's and 1960's. Our Middle Class - the folks that actually pay taxes - will only be able to do service jobs. That won't carry an economy for long.

My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.

MrsSmith
06-01-2008, 08:33 AM
"Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?"

Basic manufacturing theory.

When an almost completely agrarian culture turns into a light and then mass production economy, dependable transportation is required to move people daily from rural areas and across cities to their new jobs making things - instead of growing things out in the country.

...


My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.

Well, now, that is an excellent reason for us to drill our own oil, isn't it! :D

AmPat
06-01-2008, 09:34 AM
Gas is still cheap.

Gatorade costs about $10.50 a gallon.:cool:
EVIAN costs about $ 12.00 a gallon:rolleyes:
Shall we list milk?:eek:

LogansPapa
06-01-2008, 10:19 AM
Gas is still cheap.

Gatorade costs about $10.50 a gallon.:cool:
EVIAN costs about $ 12.00 a gallon:rolleyes:
Shall we list milk?:eek:

Do you consume these items at 20 gallons per week?

hampshirebrit
06-01-2008, 10:24 AM
Interesting thread, this is.

A related question is phrased thus:

"Why has the $/bbl price gone up 35 percent since January 2008?"

In January of this year, the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil topped $100 for the first time. Today (June 1), the price of WTI and Brent crude are both over $127, and both benchmarks got close to $136 a week or so ago.

Opinion is divided between those who say that the spike in prices is down to speculation, or down to the earlier-than-expected emergence of long term supply in decline.

It is true that there is a ton of money to be made (and lost) in the current climate, where the barrel price can vary by as much as $2.35 or more in a single trading day, a lot of those changes upward. Any changes in the fortune of the US dollar can have a major and immediate effect on the market price.

But it is also true that any bad news about supply, regardless of how seemingly small an event, has gained greater power to dramatically change prices upward in a given trading day. Rebel attacks on oil infrastructure in Niger, unrest in Iraq, another nutcase pronouncement by Amadinejad in Iran, a strike at a refinery in Scotland, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, all have now gained a say in world prices that they, occuring alone, have never had before now.

As CS says, there are huge untapped reserves, and it is true that, often, governments of all stripes are getting in the way of recovery of these reserves, not only in the US and UK, but in Russia and the Arab states, as well.

The main problem with the untapped reserves, particularly in the Americas but also generally in global terms, is that the effort required to extract them has, up until now, not been economically viable. A lot of recent discoveries are deep-water, which currently takes 10-plus years to bring into production. Tar sands and shale deposits require massive energy and water inputs to extract.

The quality of the recovered oil in both cases is likely to be high in sulphur and heavy (sour instead of sweet), which means that the product yield, particularly fuel distilates like gasoline and diesel, from each barrel will be lower, far more difficullt to refine, and therefor emuch more expensive.

It is only with a $/bbl price set at well over $100 that the return will be worth the effort and expense invested in extracting oil that would, not long ago, been considered too inferior to bother with.

We better get used to increasing prices. We have extracted and burned all the easy-to-get stuff.

Ranger Rick
06-01-2008, 10:40 AM
"Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?"

Basic manufacturing theory.

When an almost completely agrarian culture turns into a light and then mass production economy, dependable transportation is required to move people daily from rural areas and across cities to their new jobs making things - instead of growing things out in the country. To think that the last ten years of this mass conversion in both China and India hasn't had an effect on our oil and therefore gasoline price is just childish.

15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country, via Gestapo like pricing structures from their suppliers, as well as going to the Orient for all of their throw away items. The people working in the fields were the ones going to produce that mountain of crap that we take for granted today. We created the demand for those crap makers and that reality carries on to the present.

As wages increase in Asia those people won't be satisfied with setting in their huts without refrigeration or basic transportation. I'm sorry if you can't make this connection, but if you've never been to Asia, it's hard to explain the numbers. R.J. Reynolds was sued for billions of dollars, you'll recall, and really won't lose a dime in profit because of countries like China and India. As our Congress was running their executives through a thrashing mill, their company was putting the finishing touches on over a dozen cigarette manufacturing plants over there.

American smokes are a real status item in the Orient and once the population has got their taste for them - there's no turning back. Our tobacco companies could really care less if they ever sell another carton of smokes here in the States. Nearly two billion customers have their focus elsewhere.

So the everyday Working Joe in China that's never had electricity, a television, maybe only a bicycle to get him from one place to another, only dung cigarettes, and no thought of medical care isn't going back to his leaky hut. They've seen the candy store, via menial factory jobs and now they want to produce better products - the $25 to $500 items that Americans produce presently. No reason, economically, and according to the bean counters, for these jobs to remain here. None.

Show me ANY fastener on ANY American made vehicle that's still made in the United States and I'll show you some very old inventory discovered in a warehouse somewhere. More critical metal items once made here, then Mexico, are now made in Mainland China. That takes electricity. A giant butt-load of it - 24 hours per day. Try to pay a realistic price for say a 3KVA Diesel Generator on the open market today - and you'll be floored by how much any dealer, new or used, wants for them.

The Chinese government infrastructure can't meet even half the demand for electrical power, so the shops coming on shore are simply setting up their operations with these portable generators - until a coal plant can be brought on line. Their government's printing money as quickly as the presses will knock out the bills - with nothing but the United States' debt to cover it.

This is the 'Progressive Chain' that is being notched up in the Orient and their working folk won't be satisfied with making junk forever. Their path is much like what happened in Japan in the 1950's and 1960's. Our Middle Class - the folks that actually pay taxes - will only be able to do service jobs. That won't carry an economy for long.

My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.

Yes I have been seeing this since the 80's when Apple computer shut their keyboard plant down and shipped it to Japan.

There are several catches:

As the cost of oil rises, the cost of shipping to here will rise, increasing the cost. At some point we will cross the point of lower wage here/ higher shipping costs, and manufacturing will come back.

As the "Progressive Chain" gets notched up, the next tier of third world country's will have their "Progressive Chain" started. Our purchases from China will drop, much like it did in Japan and Korea. Will it be the same- who nows.

Odysseus
06-01-2008, 10:44 AM
See, you are capable of backing up an argument instead of simply presenting disjointed issues. Some of what you've said is correct, some of it drivel, but at least now there's a basis for discussion.

B]"Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?"[/B]
Basic manufacturing theory.
When an almost completely agrarian culture turns into a light and then mass production economy, dependable transportation is required to move people daily from rural areas and across cities to their new jobs making things - instead of growing things out in the country. To think that the last ten years of this mass conversion in both China and India hasn't had an effect on our oil and therefore gasoline price is just childish.[/QUOTE]

This is true. The rise of the Indian and Chinese economies and their conversion from agrarian to industrial economies is the main factor in the rise of oil prices. However, this is not the thought in congress, which simplistically blames oil company profiteers, and their response, cap and trade, windfall profits taxes and a host of other idiocies, will have no effect on the problem. In fact, by puniishing the producers, they will guarantee an even more constricted supply. Additionally, by refusing to allow increased domestic extraction and refining, they are ensuring that we will continue to be dependent on the whims of a global supply rather than our own.


15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country, via Gestapo like pricing structures from their suppliers, as well as going to the Orient for all of their throw away items. The people working in the fields were the ones going to produce that mountain of crap that we take for granted today. We created the demand for those crap makers and that reality carries on to the present.

This is about one third true. WalMart has been in business since the 1960s (they went public in 1970), so fifteen years is off by a factor of 200%. It's more like forty-five years. Second, I don't recall the Gestapo having box-stores. In fact, one of the main issues that the Nazis had with capitalism was that department stores (the WalMarts of their day) drove out small businesses. They hated Woolworths and Sears as much as you hate WalMart. As for the philosophical underpinnings of that hate, well, let's just say that neither of you seem to care for Jews very much. Finally, much of the labor involved in the lower-end of China's mass-produced goods (the "throw away items"), is done by forced labor in the Laogai (Gulag) system and has nothing to do with their transportation infrastructure, unless you consider a forced march of emaciated slaves from a barracks to be an alternative form of mass transit.


As wages increase in Asia those people won't be satisfied with setting in their huts without refrigeration or basic transportation. I'm sorry if you can't make this connection, but if you've never been to Asia, it's hard to explain the numbers. R.J. Reynolds was sued for billions of dollars, you'll recall, and really won't lose a dime in profit because of countries like China and India. As our Congress was running their executives through a thrashing mill, their company was putting the finishing touches on over a dozen cigarette manufacturing plants over there.
American smokes are a real status item in the Orient and once the population has got their taste for them - there's no turning back. Our tobacco companies could really care less if they ever sell another carton of smokes here in the States. Nearly two billion customers have their focus elsewhere.

I've actually been to Asia. Spent a year there, in fact. Even got some medals for it.
Rising living standards do impact expectations, no argument. As for RJ Reynolds and tobacco, unless you consider it an altenate fuel, you're getting off topic again. Focus, man.


The Chinese government infrastructure can't meet even half the demand for electrical power, so the shops coming on shore are simply setting up their operations with these portable generators - until a coal plant can be brought on line. Their government's printing money as quickly as the presses will knock out the bills - with nothing but the United States' debt to cover it.
This is the 'Progressive Chain' that is being notched up in the Orient and their working folk won't be satisfied with making junk forever. Their path is much like what happened in Japan in the 1950's and 1960's. Our Middle Class - the folks that actually pay taxes - will only be able to do service jobs. That won't carry an economy for long.[/QUOTE]

Again, partly true. The Chinese government is no more capable of meeting the demands of a private sector economy than any corrupt socialist government ever has been. Their response to massive energy needs is to print money, leading to inflation and increased interest rates, which inevitably slow economic growth (just look at the 1970s in the US). Throw in increasing energy costs and you have a formula for recession. Now, factor in the rising expectations of the population, which is no longer content to live in rural squalor (having opted for urban squalor, but that's another issue), and ask yourself what happens when several hundred million people suddenly find themselves scrambling for work in a nation without any tradition of peaceful transitions of power. Hint: Think Europe in 1848, or France in 1792.


My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.

Like most Marxists, you assume that economics trump everything else, but without an understanding of the political, cultural and social norms, you end up with a partial answer. The entire world suffered through the Great Depression, but it was Euope and Asia that decended into fascism and anarchy, while the US survived with its political systems intact. China's problems are that it lacks domestic energy reserves, and its economy is dependent on these, but it also has a huge, restive population that has made the transition from rural agriculture to urban industry and cannot go back. That population's very precarious standard of living is depending on economic growth, and a recession would be devastating, especially since the sole remaining justification for the government's power is economic prosperity. The potential for violent upheaval is tremendous.

SaintLouieWoman
06-01-2008, 10:48 AM
Hold up a mirror...

:D:D Did I ever tell you you're one of my favorite posters? Perfect response.

LogansPapa
06-01-2008, 10:49 AM
As the cost of oil rises, the cost of shipping to here will rise, increasing the cost. At some point we will cross the point of lower wage here/ higher shipping costs, and manufacturing will come back.

Except that the mainland Chinese have yet another shipping cost ace up there sleeves - here in the LA/Long Beach port. They're beginning to build their SECOND man-made island for boat off-load. The initial one has it's own freeway off-ramp and does its own security operations, all with the authority of local, state and federal agencies. Watch what happens during the next longshoreman strike - when they bring their own folks in on work visas to unload containers ships - their vessels - with up to 6,000 units aboard. Think their folks will be making $36.50 and hour, plus benefits?

SaintLouieWoman
06-01-2008, 10:58 AM
Yes I have been seeing this since the 80's when Apple computer shut their keyboard plant down and shipped it to Japan.

There are several catches:

As the cost of oil rises, the cost of shipping to here will rise, increasing the cost. At some point we will cross the point of lower wage here/ higher shipping costs, and manufacturing will come back.

As the "Progressive Chain" gets notched up, the next tier of third world country's will have their "Progressive Chain" started. Our purchases from China will drop, much like it did in Japan and Korea. Will it be the same- who nows.
It's happening already. I know someone who works for a firm that outsources. Already they're switching from China to India---they've decided the lower initial cost in China isn't worth the difference in quality and difficulty trusting the Chinese businessmen.

Hopefully the manufacturing will come back to the US.

LogansPapa
06-01-2008, 11:42 AM
See, you are capable of backing up an argument instead of simply presenting disjointed issues. Some of what you've said is correct, some of it drivel, but at least now there's a basis for discussion.

Well, let me continue this conversation by saying what you may consider 'disjointed issues' may just be a lack of capacity to grasp on your part.



"Are you trying to say that Chinese and Indian scooters will drive up the price of oil? And what does that have to do with box stores?"

Basic manufacturing theory.

When an almost completely agrarian culture turns into a light and then mass production economy, dependable transportation is required to move people daily from rural areas and across cities to their new jobs making things - instead of growing things out in the country. To think that the last ten years of this mass conversion in both China and India hasn't had an effect on our oil and therefore gasoline price is just childish.


This is true. The rise of the Indian and Chinese economies and their conversion from agrarian to industrial economies is the main factor in the rise of oil prices. However, this is not the thought in congress, which simplistically blames oil company profiteers, and their response, cap and trade, windfall profits taxes and a host of other idiocies, will have no effect on the problem. In fact, by punishing the producers, they will guarantee an even more constricted supply. Additionally, by refusing to allow increased domestic extraction and refining, they are ensuring that we will continue to be dependent on the whims of a global supply rather than our own.

You act as if I had/have personal control over this? WTF? The town I live in was once floating on a pool of oil. There are still hundreds everywhere - even on the fringes of million dollar housing tracts. I have no idea why people keep harping about domestic oil drilling - put McCain in office and mandate that we put the thousands of "stacked" rigs back to work - based on a national emergency. But please, climb out of my ass on this point. Like nuclear - oil drilling technology has advanced hugely in the last three decades.

15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country, via Gestapo like pricing structures from their suppliers, as well as going to the Orient for all of their throw away items. The people working in the fields were the ones going to produce that mountain of crap that we take for granted today. We created the demand for those crap makers and that reality carries on to the present.


This is about one third true. WalMart has been in business since the 1960s (they went public in 1970), so fifteen years is off by a factor of 200%. It's more like forty-five years. Second, I don't recall the Gestapo having box-stores. In fact, one of the main issues that the Nazis had with capitalism was that department stores (the WalMarts of their day) drove out small businesses. They hated Woolworths and Sears as much as you hate WalMart. As for the philosophical underpinnings of that hate, well, let's just say that neither of you seem to care for Jews very much. Finally, much of the labor involved in the lower-end of China's mass-produced goods (the "throw away items"), is done by forced labor in the Laogai (Gulag) system and has nothing to do with their transportation infrastructure, unless you consider a forced march of emaciated slaves from a barracks to be an alternative form of mass transit.


"15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country" Is that so hard to grasp? How many stores were in California then? Lets speak of real volume here. My state's stores represent more sales volume than all of the Southern states combined. Regarding the throw-away items being produced by prison items - yes, we've all heard about the socks being made by slave labor and la-la-la-la-la. But do you really believe Wal-Mart would actually take the risk of importing these items? You're talking out of you rear entrance. Reference the helpless lady they tried to get away with not paying off in their insurance scam. Get real. And unless you're familiar with some Wal-Mart vendors, as I am, via the NTMA, you know zip about their purchasing tactics. So you can put that where it belongs too.

As wages increase in Asia those people won't be satisfied with setting in their huts without refrigeration or basic transportation. I'm sorry if you can't make this connection, but if you've never been to Asia, it's hard to explain the numbers. R.J. Reynolds was sued for billions of dollars, you'll recall, and really won't lose a dime in profit because of countries like China and India. As our Congress was running their executives through a thrashing mill, their company was putting the finishing touches on over a dozen cigarette manufacturing plants over there.

American smokes are a real status item in the Orient and once the population has got their taste for them - there's no turning back. Our tobacco companies could really care less if they ever sell another carton of smokes here in the States. Nearly two billion customers have their focus elsewhere.


I've actually been to Asia. Spent a year there, in fact. Even got some medals for it. Rising living standards do impact expectations, no argument. As for RJ Reynolds and tobacco, unless you consider it an altenate fuel, you're getting off topic again. Focus, man.

Getting metals for travel log is wonderful, but I've been going there every 3-6 months since 1981. The tobacco example just shows, again, you can't grasp the trends and have never been to China. Ever see a male from China that didn't smoke? If you did - he was nine. Grasp, man, grasp.

The Chinese government infrastructure can't meet even half the demand for electrical power, so the shops coming on shore are simply setting up their operations with these portable generators - until a coal plant can be brought on line. Their government's printing money as quickly as the presses will knock out the bills - with nothing but the United States' debt to cover it.

This is the 'Progressive Chain' that is being notched up in the Orient and their working folk won't be satisfied with making junk forever. Their path is much like what happened in Japan in the 1950's and 1960's. Our Middle Class - the folks that actually pay taxes - will only be able to do service jobs. That won't carry an economy for long.


Again, partly true. The Chinese government is no more capable of meeting the demands of a private sector economy than any corrupt socialist government ever has been. Their response to massive energy needs is to print money, leading to inflation and increased interest rates, which inevitably slow economic growth (just look at the 1970s in the US). Throw in increasing energy costs and you have a formula for recession. Now, factor in the rising expectations of the population, which is no longer content to live in rural squalor (having opted for urban squalor, but that's another issue), and ask yourself what happens when several hundred million people suddenly find themselves scrambling for work in a nation without any tradition of peaceful transitions of power. Hint: Think Europe in 1848, or France in 1792.

Gee - I guess this is why (watch him ask what the connection is, folks) we moved a complete Lancer airwing and all their support personnel to Guam? *sound of a nickel rolling

My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.


Like most Marxists, you assume that economics trump everything else, but without an understanding of the political, cultural and social norms, you end up with a partial answer. The entire world suffered through the Great Depression, but it was Euope and Asia that decended into fascism and anarchy, while the US survived with its political systems intact. China's problems are that it lacks domestic energy reserves, and its economy is dependent on these, but it also has a huge, restive population that has made the transition from rural agriculture to urban industry and cannot go back. That population's very precarious standard of living is depending on economic growth, and a recession would be devastating, especially since the sole remaining justification for the government's power is economic prosperity. The potential for violent upheaval is tremendous.


Ah, the ol' "Apply a Label when you can't make a rational argument" fall-back position. Okay - that was predictable. And lazy. China will drill off their own coast and ours (via Cuba) and as 3-Gorges (it's a minor damn project) comes on line to its fullest potential, along with completing a coal-fired power plant (fuel supplied by our neighbor to the North) every 3-4 weeks - they'll bury us economically. Not Marx - Rockefeller.

Goldwater
06-01-2008, 10:44 PM
The low and diminishing value of the dollar will cause prices to rise.

lacarnut
06-02-2008, 12:31 AM
Do you consume these items at 20 gallons per week?

Does that prove that gas is or is not cheap? Democraps are good at identifying a problem but are awful at solving them. The left wing liberal politicians on the east and west coast do not want to drill off their coast but it's ok to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. So now you'll will just have to suck up higher gas prices than those that live in other parts of the country. Talk about ticker shock this winter when those that use heating oil in the northeast get their first fill up.

So what's the answer from someone coming from the kool-aid state. I see that the people of CA were at least smart enough to defeat a proposition that would have increased taxes on the oil companies. The catch was that the oil companies could not pass this cost on to the consumers. Another idiot from CA, Maxine Waters, wants to nationalize the oil companies. No wonder gasoline is approaching 5 bucks a gallon with all the retarded politicians in CA. I think you'll should initiate more formulations and require more vehicles to use Ethanol. That will make the price go down. Not.

nightflight
06-02-2008, 12:54 AM
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/max_whitmore/oil_speculation/2008/05/30/100169.html

Now, I want to turn to oil. I will be brief concerning my feelings about the oil situation. This entire run-up of oil prices is a very carefully planned event by the oil suppliers, the Middle East producers being most prominent. If you believe otherwise, you just do not understand markets.

lacarnut
06-02-2008, 01:32 AM
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/max_whitmore/oil_speculation/2008/05/30/100169.html

Now, I want to turn to oil. I will be brief concerning my feelings about the oil situation. This entire run-up of oil prices is a very carefully planned event by the oil suppliers, the Middle East producers being most prominent. If you believe otherwise, you just do not understand markets.

A federal aganecy (CFTC) Commodity Futures Trading Commission let it be know that they are investigating speculating in these Sovereign Wealth Funds. In conjunction with the Brits, they are going to get to the bottom of why the price of oil increased 50% in 6 months. I think this is where the gouging is taking place. Oil companies such as EXXON are not part of the investigation. Trillions of dollars are invested in these funds and depending on what the Feds uncover, there may be congressional legislation to shine some light on these funds which at this time have very little oversight.

The Feds usually do not discuss an ongoing investigation. I think they did it as a warning to gougers; the price of oil may start to go down to around 100 bucks a barrel.

LogansPapa
06-02-2008, 01:42 PM
So what's the answer from someone coming from the kool-aid state.

The "kool-aid" state's still one of the largest economies on the planet.

The solving of the energy crisis will be nothing but painful. We either change our lifestyles, drastically, or we go to war. It may be 5 years - it may be 15, it might even be 25, but eventually we’ll have to stop consuming so much - for so little in return, or - go to war like the Japanese did, when our juice is strangled off.

LogansPapa
06-02-2008, 06:03 PM
Man, I love the sound of them FT Hood, TX crickets.

3rd-try
06-02-2008, 08:21 PM
The "kool-aid" state's still one of the largest economies on the planet.

The solving of the energy crisis will be nothing but painful. We either change our lifestyles, drastically, or we go to war. It may be 5 years - it may be 15, it might even be 25, but eventually we’ll have to stop consuming so much - for so little in return, or - go to war like the Japanese did, when our juice is strangled off.

Not arguing...but it does lead us back to why in the hell our own oil fields are off' limits.

LogansPapa
06-02-2008, 09:44 PM
Not arguing...but it does lead us back to why in the hell our own oil fields are off' limits.

If I was the CEO of a domestic oil company, with reserves on or near North America, I wouldn't want to drill anything but test holes. We're still driving. The oil companies know that. $3.60 was last year's pain threshold. We haven't reached it this year. Only an economic fool would pump his domestic crude presently. Too many fear based excuses to recall at a moment's notice, at least until January 21st, 2009.;)

Just relax, take a deep breath and close your eyes. If you fight it - it will just tare.:cool:

lacarnut
06-02-2008, 10:42 PM
The "kool-aid" state's still one of the largest economies on the planet.

The solving of the energy crisis will be nothing but painful. We either change our lifestyles, drastically, or we go to war. It may be 5 years - it may be 15, it might even be 25, but eventually we’ll have to stop consuming so much - for so little in return, or - go to war like the Japanese did, when our juice is strangled off.


You do not have an answer other than conservation. It must really must hurt to live in a state that has so many environmental wackoos. No drilling off your coast but it's ok in the Gulf of Mexico. CA enonomy is not doing so well with it's huge deficit and some of the highest oil prices in the US. I won't even mention the housing market crash and population decline. The liberal legislators have the answer though. Tax the cr@p out of the oil companies and see what happens. They already tried that dog and pony show and Shell threatened to pull out of the state. Yes, you do live in the kool-aid state because your politicians do not have a clue of how to solve the energy crises except to bash the oil companies.

LogansPapa
06-02-2008, 11:03 PM
You do not have an answer other than conservation. It must really must hurt to live in a state that has so many environmental wackoos. No drilling off your coast but it's ok in the Gulf of Mexico. CA enonomy is not doing so well with it's huge deficit and some of the highest oil prices in the US. I won't even mention the housing market crash and population decline. The liberal legislators have the answer though. Tax the cr@p out of the oil companies and see what happens. They already tried that dog and pony show and Shell threatened to pull out of the state. Yes, you do live in the kool-aid state because your politicians do not have a clue of how to solve the energy crises except to bash the oil companies.

Excellent points. And yes conservation is a major part of it - but lets kick this up to the federal level for a moment. Nevada is a huge sandbox - some of it with hundreds of blast holes, from nuclear testing. Nuclear power generation could be a great part of the answer and that won't happen in my state - maybe never again. Electrical vehicles, better manufacturing methods for such and tax breaks for the ones that buy them - that's were we need to go. Now. But understand - it's not so much the voters that put those fine folks in office - no really. It's the donations and airtime that does.

As Will Rogers said, "We have the finest politicians money can buy.";)

lacarnut
06-02-2008, 11:15 PM
If I was the CEO of a domestic oil company, with reserves on or near North America, I wouldn't want to drill anything but test holes. We're still driving. The oil companies know that. $3.60 was last year's pain threshold. We haven't reached it this year. Only an economic fool would pump his domestic crude presently. Too many fear based excuses to recall at a moment's notice, at least until January 21st, 2009.;)

Just relax, take a deep breath and close your eyes. If you fight it - it will just tare.:cool:

When the stock goes down the tube, the board & stockholders fire the CEO. I don't think you are aware of how the stock market works. Domestic oil companies are searching and drilling to increase production. For example, Denbury Resources and Whiting petroleum are injecting CO2 into old wells. These two companies stock has jumped around 100% over the last year. With more stock sold, they have the ability to expand faster. There remains 30 to 40 per cent in the ground that could not be gotten out previously. With new technology like this and removal of oil from sands, these companies are making a killing. So if a company is making a ton of money why would they let the oil sit there. On the other hand a large company like EXXON can do exactly what you have subscribed. In fact the state of AK has revoked their leases because they have not started drilling on land leased several years ago. In other words, smaller domestic companies do not have the luxury of sitting on their laurels while production dwindles.

LogansPapa
06-03-2008, 10:28 AM
On the other hand a large company like EXXON can do exactly what you have subscribed. In fact the state of AK has revoked their leases because they have not started drilling on land leased several years ago. In other words, smaller domestic companies do not have the luxury of sitting on their laurels while production dwindles.

I concur. But lets be realistic here - if all domestic sources were opened up again and every current technology was brought to bear, it’s still just a matter of time, a very short time, that the reserves are again depleted to the point that punching holes again becomes uneconomical. ANWAR’s only supposed to have another 15 year capacity - and that’s at today’s consumption rates. It takes 85,000,000 barrels of crude to run the world today - is that number going to go down?

lacarnut
06-03-2008, 12:34 PM
I concur. But lets be realistic here - if all domestic sources were opened up again and every current technology was brought to bear, it’s still just a matter of time, a very short time, that the reserves are again depleted to the point that punching holes again becomes uneconomical. ANWAR’s only supposed to have another 15 year capacity - and that’s at today’s consumption rates. It takes 85,000,000 barrels of crude to run the world today - is that number going to go down?

Every little bit helps though. I read an article that the total amount of Ethanol produced in the US is equal to one (1) well off Nigeria's coast. Ethanol made from sugar cane is 2 to 3 times more productive than Ethanol made from corn. We could import it from Brazil, remove the excise tax, cease production in this country, use the subsidy funds for Ethanol as tax credits to the consumers which in turn would bring the cost of gasoline down.

No nukes, no offshore drilling except in the Gulf of M., no drilling in Anwr, no new refineries equals gasoline prices of $10 dollars a gallon ten years from now. That is the opinion of experts in the oil business. The enviromental nuts in DC are considering legislation to ban oil from the sands in Canada because of env. concerns. If that happens, you might see $10 a gallon gasoline in the next few years. We import more oil from Canada than any other country in the world. The Russians are in talks with them to buy their oil. Conclusion, we p!ss Canada off, they might just divert some of that oil to the commies.

LogansPapa
06-03-2008, 12:42 PM
Using Iraq as a perfect example - wouldn’t make sense to stabalize Nigeria’s government, via our troops, and take advantage of that resource now? McCain says we’ll be in the Middle East for the next hundred years anyway - I see no reason we shouldn’t use the military might and technical advantage we enjoy presently.

3rd-try
06-03-2008, 09:11 PM
Using Iraq as a perfect example - wouldn’t make sense to stabalize Nigeria’s government, via our troops, and take advantage of that resource now? McCain says we’ll be in the Middle East for the next hundred years anyway - I see no reason we shouldn’t use the military might and technical advantage we enjoy presently.

I couldn't agree more.

Where do you get your figures for suggesting our domestic reserve amounts to only a short supply? Especially as prices have made shale oil economically feasible, I believe we have quite a big puddle of the stuff to dip from.

Lanie
06-03-2008, 09:39 PM
1 TRILLION barrels of oil in shale from under the Rocky Mountains

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=18132


- we can't touch it
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/may/15/panel-defeats-attempt-end-oil-shale-moratorium/

5.7 Billion barrels of oil in ANWR

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/arctic_national_wildlife_refuge/html/execsummary.html

- we can't touch it.
http://www.klamathbasincrisis.org/oil/demsstopANWRoil050708.htm

5.9 Billion barrels of oil in NPRA
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs045-02/

- we can't touch it.
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/327390290.shtml

200 BILLION barrels of oil in N. Dakota

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.705276/browse_thread/thread/20deebc8b9379e5f

- we can't touch it.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2008/03/22/news/opinion/letters/151579.txt

Add these up (all are low end estimates) and you get 1,211,600,000,000 barrels of oil in just those 4 areas. If we multiply 365 days x 21,000,000 daily consumption in barrels and you get an annual consumption of 7,665,000,000 barrels. If you divide that into the low end estimate of available oil in JUST the four areas mentioned above, you find that we have enough oil RIGHT HERE to be COMPLETELY independent of mideast oil for 158 years at current consumption rates.

Why can't we go after our own oil???

The other problem we have with the price of Gas is we cannot refine it fast enough.

What are the issues preventing this???

No new refining capacity for over 30 years. Why???? Lawsuits brought by environmentalists and restrictions made by politicians.

Who is resposible for this???? Guess.

Environmentalists and Democrats and the pre






Environmentalists, the press and Democrats.

Are you fed up with $4.00 gas????

Who should you blame??? Environmentalists, the Press and Democrats.

I'm with ya on that one. I do want to find alternatives to oil, but I would like to consider drilling our own in the meanwhile.

Constitutionally Speaking
06-04-2008, 06:53 AM
I'm with ya on that one. I do want to find alternatives to oil, but I would like to consider drilling our own in the meanwhile.


I have no problems with that.

LogansPapa
06-04-2008, 10:26 AM
I couldn't agree more.

Where do you get your figures for suggesting our domestic reserve amounts to only a short supply? Especially as prices have made shale oil economically feasible, I believe we have quite a big puddle of the stuff to dip from.

There's a thousan year supply of oil in America. But until oil hits $500 a barrel - it's not worth it to drill.;)

Constitutionally Speaking
06-04-2008, 11:37 AM
There's a thousan year supply of oil in America. But until oil hits $500 a barrel - it's not worth it to drill.;)


I'm not so sure that this is true. It may well be worth it right now.


Unlike the Grail, though, Shell is convinced that oil shale is no myth and that after years of secret research, it is close to achieving this oil-based alchemy. Shell is not alone in this assessment. "Harold has broken the code," says oil shale expert Anton Dammer, director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves.

Vinegar has developed a cutting-edge technology that, according to Shell, will produce large quantities of high-quality oil without ravaging the local environment - and be profitable with prices around $30 a barrel. Now that oil is approaching $90, the odds on Shell's speculative bet are beginning to look awfully good.



http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/30/magazines/fortune/Oil_from_stone.fortune/index.htm

LogansPapa
06-04-2008, 11:49 AM
I'm not so sure that this is true. It is worth it right now.

Then when Mr. McCain gets into office - his first 100 days should include an Emergency Declaration to make that exact thing happen, and call for a referendum of the people to vote on implementing it ASAP - negating the lobbyist’s and their prostitutes, aka politicians.

LogansPapa
06-04-2008, 02:40 PM
Where do you get your figures for suggesting our domestic reserve amounts to only a short supply?

http://www.energybulletin.net/45331.html ;)

aerojarod
06-04-2008, 03:04 PM
I was running some OIL numbers today myself...

I found one report that said that latest USGS studies estimate the ANWR has perhaps TWICE the originally estimated 10 Billion bbl of retrievable crude. But given that it's a government agency, lets say that they're 75% off the actual figure and there's only 5 Billion bbl.

We IMPORT about 500 Million bbl of oil a year just from Saudi Arabia.

5 BILLION bbl <divided by> 500 MILLON bbl/year = 10 years of no Middle Eastern Oil!!

No war for oil? DRILL ANWR NOW!!

That's ten years free form the Middle East we can spend be brining nuclear power plans,cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel online.

Start the political lynchings, please!

Constitutionally Speaking
06-04-2008, 04:40 PM
Then when Mr. McCain gets into office - his first 100 days should include an Emergency Declaration to make that exact thing happen, and call for a referendum of the people to vote on implementing it ASAP - negating the lobbyist’s and their prostitutes, aka politicians.


The Democrats have been blocking this developement for decades. They will certainly have a say. I hope he does, but knowing the Dems, they would lie and try to impeach.

Molon Labe
06-04-2008, 04:45 PM
Stop being so silly. You go to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. You're the root cause of high priced oil.

135 years ago oil meant little to the world's economy. Then ships, automobiles and airplanes gradually came along and created a DEMAND for various finished products that came from crude.

No different now - it just hurts more because we're all junkies and we need the stuff that crude gives us.

800 million people will soon be able to buy little scooters in India and about a billion more in China will do the same (including buying ultra-polluting autos) and Kyoto will be just another dream someone had long ago. They will face zero regulations and we will continue to carry the heaviest on the planet.

We - by our greed - engineered this. Every time we got a supposed great deal at a 'Big Box Store' we were screwing our children's future. Eventually this will lead to war and unbridled land rape.

Seems to me there was a minor conflict in the Pacific about 70 years ago over the same thing.:rolleyes:

Get used to it, childrens. Buy a scooter from India and enjoy your 90 minute commute to work.:cool:

Right O. No one seems to realize that the demand of two of the largest economies is inevitable. The good ole' days of 1 buck for gas are probably over. Now if we can only start real research on alternative fuels and drill for the loads of oil in this country.

Constitutionally Speaking
06-04-2008, 04:50 PM
Peak oil is a bunch of crap.


We have enough oil for well over 100 years of complete self sufficiency IF the Democrats and the environmental kooks would allow us to go after it.


Our Domestic reserves are actually increasing because of new discoveries. The problem is that we are suffering from an undue liberal influence.

ANWR is NOT the answer. Not all by itself - but that is the tactic of the left. They dismiss each potential site INDIVIDUALLY instead of taking the honest approach of evaluating our reserves as a whole.

That is sort of like saying a flood is not dangerous because a drop of water is harmless.

LogansPapa
06-04-2008, 05:31 PM
ESPN this weekend on NHRA Racing: NHRA nitro racers were notified by the sanctioning body management their testing will be limited to non-national event facilities and all day-after event testing is postponed indefinitely until the impending nitro shortage for the official distributor is resolved.

LogansPapa
06-04-2008, 05:32 PM
Right O. No one seems to realize that the demand of two of the largest economies is inevitable. The good ole' days of 1 buck for gas are probably over. Now if we can only start real research on alternative fuels and drill for the loads of oil in this country.

:) Somebody gets it.

Odysseus
06-04-2008, 07:51 PM
Well, let me continue this conversation by saying what you may consider 'disjointed issues' may just be a lack of capacity to grasp on your part.
Basic manufacturing theory.
You act as if I had/have personal control over this? WTF? The town I live in was once floating on a pool of oil. There are still hundreds everywhere - even on the fringes of million dollar housing tracts. I have no idea why people keep harping about domestic oil drilling - put McCain in office and mandate that we put the thousands of "stacked" rigs back to work - based on a national emergency. But please, climb out of my ass on this point. Like nuclear - oil drilling technology has advanced hugely in the last three decades.

I'm not up your @$$. You've obviously confused me with one of the gay marriage advocates. As for your proposal to put the stacked rigs back to work, that's an intelligent, lucid idea. Who are you and what have you done with the real LogansPapa?

[QUOTE=LogansPapa;1758]"15 years ago Wal-Mart was just beginning their empire building around the country" Is that so hard to grasp? How many stores were in California then? Lets speak of real volume here. My state's stores represent more sales volume than all of the Southern states combined. Regarding the throw-away items being produced by prison items - yes, we've all heard about the socks being made by slave labor and la-la-la-la-la. But do you really believe Wal-Mart would actually take the risk of importing these items? You're talking out of you rear entrance. Reference the helpless lady they tried to get away with not paying off in their insurance scam. Get real. And unless you're familiar with some Wal-Mart vendors, as I am, via the NTMA, you know zip about their purchasing tactics. So you can put that where it belongs too.

Now that, on the other hand, is one of your more typical rants. I'd say that it was good to have you back, but it's not.

As for Walmart's growth, they started on July 2, 1962, with one Wal-Mart Discount City store. Within five years, the company expanded to 24 stores across Arkansas and reached $12.6 million in sales. In 1968, it opened its first stores outside Arkansas, in Sikeston, Missouri and Claremore, Oklahoma. Walmart incorporated in 1969 with 38 stores operating with 1,500 employees and sales of $44.2 million. I don't know or care when they opened their first store in California, but I'd guess that it was in the early 1980s at the latest, since by 1987 there were 1,198 stores with sales of $15.9 billion. As for the Laogai labor, if half of China's output (to use a random, but easily understood figure) is made by slave labor and half is made by labor at competitive wages, the average wage for all output is kept low by the use of slave labor. WalMart doesn't have to import items made by prisoners in order to subsidize the system.


Getting metals for travel log is wonderful, but I've been going there every 3-6 months since 1981. The tobacco example just shows, again, you can't grasp the trends and have never been to China. Ever see a male from China that didn't smoke? If you did - he was nine. Grasp, man, grasp.

The medals were for being in Iraq, which is in Asia. I really don't care what the Chinese smoke. It's their lungs. I'm much more interested in what you're smoking, since it seems to be making you seriously agitated.


Gee - I guess this is why (watch him ask what the connection is, folks) we moved a complete Lancer airwing and all their support personnel to Guam? *sound of a nickel rolling

Actually, it isn't. Andersen AFB is supporting ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The 7th Expeditionary Air Wing was moved to Guam to beef up the 36th Expeditionary Air Wing in March 2003, back when oil prices were much lower.


Ah, the ol' "Apply a Label when you can't make a rational argument" fall-back position. Okay - that was predictable. And lazy. China will drill off their own coast and ours (via Cuba) and as 3-Gorges (it's a minor damn project) comes on line to its fullest potential, along with completing a coal-fired power plant (fuel supplied by our neighbor to the North) every 3-4 weeks - they'll bury us economically. Not Marx - Rockefeller.

I labeled you a Marxist because you buy off on so many of Marx's premises. If it's any consolation, I also consider you a crude antisemite. Economic determinism only accounts for part of the picture. It's highly unlikely that they'll bury us, since they have some very serious demographic and social issues which will trump their economic successes, assuming that they can be sustained. First, the Chinese government is partially through the transition from corrupt communist state to corrupt oligarchy. State-run industries are notoriously inefficient, and the public/private partnerships which force foreign investors to team with local party hacks are simply a license for theft. These are why China, despite record economic growth, is desperately short of investment capital, and why their economic stature is so precarious. The only thing keeping the Chinese population in line is the promise of ever-expanding economic growth. Take away that growth, even for a moment, and the population will be extremely diffiicult to mollify. Put another way, China is one recession away from chaos. Second, China's one-child policy has produced the most uneven birthrate ever seen in human history. There is simply no precedent for a culture that has as many more males than females as China does. This has staggering implications for China's future, as young, unmarried (and unlikely to be married) males are not a stabilizing influence. Finally, China has a number of restive captive populations in Tibet and Mongolia, plus hostile borders with Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea (South, that is), plus a highly unstable, albeit nominally allied state in North Korea. Throw in a number of Moslem provinces that are just starting to get radicalized and, in short, you see China has security issues that will keep it busy for quite a while.


Man, I love the sound of them FT Hood, TX crickets.

Nothing like the crunching from the national cereal aisle of California. Flakes, fruits and nuts, all in one place...

LogansPapa
06-05-2008, 01:18 PM
Odysseus wrote: WalMart doesn't have to import items made by prisoners in order to subsidize the system.

LogansPapa responds: Yes, I think we can put that in the "N/S Column" as you were obviously going for the point in your original post that the Chinese slave labor didn’t have any transportation issues to get to their jobs, as they were imprisoned.

>Finally, much of the labor involved in the lower-end of China's mass-produced goods (the "throw away items"), is done by forced labor in the Laogai (Gulag) system and has nothing to do with their transportation infrastructure, unless you consider a forced march of emaciated slaves from a barracks to be an alternative form of mass transit.<

My point was that Wal-Mart couldn’t afford that kind of exposure and the Chinese vendor’s employees would require some kind of mechanised transportation.

*

Odysseus wrote: The medals were for being in Iraq, which is in Asia. I really don't care what the Chinese smoke. It's their lungs.

LogansPapa responds: Yep, and Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and Syria are too - technically - but most of us consider those countries to be in the Middle East. The term has been around for quite a while. Now getting back to Asia proper, what, exactly, does Iraq have to do with the throw away items found in ‘Big Box’ stores here in the States? Regarding the Chinese smoking habits - you really can’t see the economic trend here? You’re really of that much of a diminished capacity? Frightening.

*

Odysseus wrote: Actually, it isn't. Andersen AFB is supporting ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The 7th Expeditionary Air Wing was moved to Guam to beef up the 36th Expeditionary Air Wing in March 2003, back when oil prices were much lower.

LogansPapa responds: My bad - I was under the impression that was the 40th Air Expeditionary Wing’s job, working out of Diego Garcia, in as much as it’s a little closer to those countries. Who knew? I thought the new facilities on Guam, including a new sub rack might have been in response to the threat to both Japan and Taiwan. Doh.

*

Odysseus wrote: I labeled you a Marxist because you buy off on so many of Marx's premises. If it's any consolation, I also consider you a crude antisemite.

LogansPapa responds: No, you labeled me because, like all of your kind - labels give you comfort. It’s the first things you do when confronted. Like calling Japanese "Japs" and "Monkeys". Don’t try to frill it up any more than it is - just a primitive reaction.

And all your tripe about China being unstable via the countries around them and populations under their control - all true, except that isn’t why they’ll bury us economically. They hold our debt. Research that reality for a while and you’ll find the real reason we’ll be going to war with the Chinese. The piper always comes for payment.

Odysseus
06-05-2008, 09:14 PM
Odysseus wrote: The medals were for being in Iraq, which is in Asia. I really don't care what the Chinese smoke. It's their lungs.
LogansPapa responds: Yep, and Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and Syria are too - technically - but most of us consider those countries to be in the Middle East. The term has been around for quite a while. Now getting back to Asia proper, what, exactly, does Iraq have to do with the throw away items found in ‘Big Box’ stores here in the States? Regarding the Chinese smoking habits - you really can’t see the economic trend here? You’re really of that much of a diminished capacity? Frightening.

You asked me if I'd ever been in Asia as part of your diatribe, and since we all know that I've done a tour in Iraq, I simply reminded you that I had. BTW, among us military types, it's known as Southwest Asia (or SWA), rather than the Middle East, which has become a vague catchall for any country with a lot of sand that happens to lie between Gibraltar and India. SWA is a more precise term than Middle East, and there are some people who don't know that Asia encompasses Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and Syria.

As for Chinese smoking habits, nope, doesn't really resonate with me, but given the lack of women there, at least there won't be much in the way of sex to smoke after. FWIW, Arabs are heavy smokers, too, as are the French. The Iraqis consider American cigarettes the apex of the art. Doesn't really bother me, don't know why it bothers you.


Odysseus wrote: Actually, it isn't. Andersen AFB is supporting ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The 7th Expeditionary Air Wing was moved to Guam to beef up the 36th Expeditionary Air Wing in March 2003, back when oil prices were much lower.

LogansPapa responds: My bad - I was under the impression that was the 40th Air Expeditionary Wing’s job, working out of Diego Garcia, in as much as it’s a little closer to those countries. Who knew? I thought the new facilities on Guam, including a new sub rack might have been in response to the threat to both Japan and Taiwan. Doh.

Diego Garcia does support ops in Southwest Asia. So do AFBs in Germany, Okinawa and Hawaii. We've been realigning bases for years, with a declining emphasis on western Europe and increased emphasis on the Pacific rim and Southwest Asia.


Odysseus wrote: I labeled you a Marxist because you buy off on so many of Marx's premises. If it's any consolation, I also consider you a crude antisemite.
LogansPapa responds: No, you labeled me because, like all of your kind - labels give you comfort. It’s the first things you do when confronted. Like calling Japanese "Japs" and "Monkeys". Don’t try to frill it up any more than it is - just a primitive reaction.

LOL. Let me see if I've got this straight... You refer to "my kind" and complain that I labelled you? At least my label was specific and based on actual statements by you. For example, I labelled you an antisemite because you claimed that Jews killed Christ and objected to the use of your tax dollars to prevent the slaughter of "Hebrews." If that's not "primitive" then what is?


And all your tripe about China being unstable via the countries around them and populations under their control - all true, except that isn’t why they’ll bury us economically. They hold our debt. Research that reality for a while and you’ll find the real reason we’ll be going to war with the Chinese. The piper always comes for payment.

Yeah, yeah.... Been there, done that. In the 30s and 40s, Germany was going to bury us. In the 50s, the Soviets were going to bury us (Ol' Nikita even banged his shoe on the table to make the point). In the 70s, the Arabs were going to bury us economically. In the 80s, Japan was going to bury us. We mopped the floor with Germany, the Soviet Union collapsed, the Arabs have spent their money on exporting Islam, which is their only growth industry besides oil and the Japanese have been in a recession since the early 90s. The rumors of our burial have been greatly exaggerated.

AmPat
06-06-2008, 10:35 AM
Do you consume these items at 20 gallons per week?
What do you think numbnuts,,, oh I see, you were trying to be witty.

I am merely pointing out that gas is relatively cheap compared to other products. I pay less per gallon of gas, a product that is valuable and necessary to me than I do for non essential products. Do you need further assistance with any other comments?:cool:

AmPat
06-06-2008, 10:59 AM
Well, let me continue this conversation by saying what you may consider

As wages increase in Asia those people won't be satisfied with setting in their huts without refrigeration or basic transportation.

[COLOR="black"]The Chinese government infrastructure can't meet even half the demand for electrical power, so the shops coming on shore are simply setting up their operations with these portable generators - until a coal plant can be brought on line. Their government's printing money as quickly as the presses will knock out the bills - with nothing but the United States' debt to cover it.

This is the 'Progressive Chain' that is being notched up in the Orient and their working folk won't be satisfied with making junk forever. Their path is much like what happened in Japan in the 1950's and 1960's. Our Middle Class - the folks that actually pay taxes - will only be able to do service jobs. That won't carry an economy for long.

Gee - I guess this is why (watch him ask what the connection is, folks) we moved a complete Lancer airwing and all their support personnel to Guam? *sound of a nickel rolling

My perspective is based on numbers - huge populations headed up the standard of living ladder. We will get to see them on the way down.

China will drill off their own coast and ours (via Cuba) and as 3-Gorges (it's a minor damn project) comes on line to its fullest potential, along with completing a coal-fired power plant (fuel supplied by our neighbor to the North) every 3-4 weeks - they'll bury us economically. Not Marx - Rockefeller.

You make some good, sound points. You have also pointed out some problems along their path. China will inherit the bad with the good. They are tearing their country up and polluting the environment. They don't care now because it isn't the nature of any government to care, (especially a Communist one) but they will have to address it eventually.

They have to sell these goods to somebody. At present that "somebody" is the United States of Walmart. When the Walmart shoppers don't buy their goods, it isn't likely that Chinese consumers will step into the gap. This will slow trade down.

They use/abuse their greatest national resource, people, to turn out their (our) cheap mass produced junk. We cannot compete because we don't have hundreds of millions of people standing in line to work 14 hour days for $3.00 a day.
The trade inbalance should correct itself when we stop buying their junk. Without our dollars, they cannot fuel their infant industrial machine.

LogansPapa
06-06-2008, 11:00 AM
Bingo! Full Marks! :)

LogansPapa
06-08-2008, 01:47 AM
As for Chinese smoking habits, nope, doesn't really resonate with me, but given the lack of women there, at least there won't be much in the way of sex to smoke after. FWIW, Arabs are heavy smokers, too, as are the French. The Iraqis consider American cigarettes the apex of the art. Doesn't really bother me, don't know why it bothers you.

You're still not grasping the "billions of people thing." As well as the volume of consumption point therein. Wow - that is outstandingly dim.




Diego Garcia does support ops in Southwest Asia. So do AFBs in Germany, Okinawa and Hawaii. We've been realigning bases for years, with a declining emphasis on western Europe and increased emphasis on the Pacific rim and Southwest Asia..

Guam is to counter mainland China, North Korea and maybe the reemerging Russian Navy. The rest of the travel log is just filler.



LOL. Let me see if I've got this straight... You refer to "my kind" and complain that I labelled you? At least my label was specific and based on actual statements by you. For example, I labelled you an antisemite because you claimed that Jews killed Christ and objected to the use of your tax dollars to prevent the slaughter of "Hebrews." If that's not "primitive" then what is?

Sorry. It was your people that betrayed Him - not the Scotts, my people. You should just own up to your folk's responsibility. 60 years is enough - cut the titty off. Now. Stand on your own.




Yeah, yeah.... Been there, done that. In the 30s and 40s, Germany was going to bury us. In the 50s, the Soviets were going to bury us (Ol' Nikita even banged his shoe on the table to make the point). In the 70s, the Arabs were going to bury us economically. In the 80s, Japan was going to bury us. We mopped the floor with Germany, the Soviet Union collapsed, the Arabs have spent their money on exporting Islam, which is their only growth industry besides oil and the Japanese have been in a recession since the early 90s. The rumors of our burial have been greatly exaggerated.

Did Hitler hold all of our paper like the Chinese do presently? If you can't recognize the difference - like the 'volume' thing - you're an idiot.

Vepr
06-08-2008, 12:24 PM
Peak oil is a bunch of crap.


We have enough oil for well over 100 years of complete self sufficiency IF the Democrats and the environmental kooks would allow us to go after it.


Our Domestic reserves are actually increasing because of new discoveries. The problem is that we are suffering from an undue liberal influence.

ANWR is NOT the answer. Not all by itself - but that is the tactic of the left. They dismiss each potential site INDIVIDUALLY instead of taking the honest approach of evaluating our reserves as a whole.

That is sort of like saying a flood is not dangerous because a drop of water is harmless.


Peak will happen at some point. Has it happened yet? Probably not. Will it happen in our life times? Maybe not. Will it happen? Yes if we do not find viable alternatives.

I think Gator and I need to get together over some ribs and a case of beer and develop cold fusion. Even if we do not develop cold fusion it will still be worth it.

LogansPapa
06-08-2008, 12:26 PM
Peak will happen at some point. Has it happened yet? Probably not. Will it happen in our life times? Maybe not. Will it happen? Yes if we do not find viable alternatives.

I think Gator and I need to get together over some ribs and a case of beer and develop cold fusion. Even if we do not develop cold fusion it will still be worth it.

Okay, funny stuff!:p

Odysseus
06-08-2008, 12:47 PM
You're still not grasping the "billions of people thing." As well as the volume of consumption point therein. Wow - that is outstandingly dim.

Yeah, I get it. Billions of people equals billions of packs per day. Who cares how much they smoke? Look, just for your own edification, the rest of us are not able to hear the voices in your head, so unless you are willing to make the connection for us, we're not going to grasp what passes for logic in your argument.


Guam is to counter mainland China, North Korea and maybe the reemerging Russian Navy. The rest of the travel log is just filler.

Russia's navy is in freefall. They haven't ordered any new vessels since the collapse of the USSR, and the infrastructure is in serious disrepair. I'm less worried about the Russian navy than I am about Abu Sayaf in the Philippines, the Moro Liberation Front, the Islamist insurgency in Thailand and the radical groups in Indonesia, all places where US forces could be committed, with support from strategic air. But, what the hey, you obviously know more about what I do for a living than I do. Must've missed you at the War College.


Sorry. It was your people that betrayed Him - not the Scotts, my people. You should just own up to your folk's responsibility. 60 years is enough - cut the titty off. Now. Stand on your own.

Well, at least you're consistent. Insane, but consistent.


Did Hitler hold all of our paper like the Chinese do presently? If you can't recognize the difference - like the 'volume' thing - you're an idiot.

China's hold on our debt makes them dependent on the stability of our economy, not the other way around. If they tried to forclose, they'd get pennies on the dollar, as longterm loans have rules and penalties for early withdrawal, just like your savings account. China has no choice but to hold the debt and hope that we make the payments, and with the current weak dollar, we're screwing them over eight ways to Sunday. Here's how it works: I take out a mortgage at 5% interest over 30 years on a home that sold for $100,000. Inflation at that time is about 1.5-2%. The value of the home, in raw numbers, is increasing at 1.5-2% per year, and I'm paying off 5%, so the bank is netting 3-3.5% on the loan. As long as that remains constant, the bank is doing fine, but what happens if inflation outpaces the loan? At 5% inflation, my APR becomes moot, but what happens is inflation hits 10%? Then, the value of my house, in raw dollars, increases by 10% every year, even if, adjust for inflation, it remains static. But the bank is losing 5% at that point. In other words, inflation takes the value of the dollar away from the creditor. That's why China's holding our debt doesn't bother me. And if you can't grasp that, then you truly are an idiot (but wait, we've already established that with the antisemitism, so I repeat myself).

Constitutionally Speaking
06-08-2008, 12:55 PM
Peak will happen at some point. Has it happened yet? Probably not. Will it happen in our life times? Maybe not. Will it happen? Yes if we do not find viable alternatives.

I think Gator and I need to get together over some ribs and a case of beer and develop cold fusion. Even if we do not develop cold fusion it will still be worth it.


There is no doubt we need to develop alternatives. I encourage that wholeheartedly. In the meantime however, let us go after the resources we have.


I wouldn't mind a cold beer with you guys, but I'll have to let you two work on the cold fusion thingy. The closest I have ever gotten is when I stuck my tongue on the ice cube tray.

Vepr
06-08-2008, 01:00 PM
There is no doubt we need to develop alternatives. I encourage that wholeheartedly. In the meantime however, let us go after the resources we have.


I wouldn't mind a cold beer with you guys, but I'll have to let you two work on the cold fusion thingy. The closest I have ever gotten is when I stuck my tongue on the ice cube tray.

:D I tried to get Gator up to Atlanta one time for some gun parts and ammo I sold him but he chickened out and I had to ship it to him. Probably a good thing for me because he had been threatening to whoop my butt. :eek: :)

LogansPapa
06-08-2008, 02:11 PM
Yeah, I get it. Billions of people equals billions of packs per day. Who cares how much they smoke? Look, just for your own edification, the rest of us are not able to hear the voices in your head, so unless you are willing to make the connection for us, we're not going to grasp what passes for logic in your argument.

Okay - we'll S L O W the baud rate down a bit: If a Chinese male would be willing to spend a day's wages five years ago for a pack of American smokes - how much of a leap is it for him to go from a bicycle to a little gas powered scooter now? Now take that thought and multiply his consumption by half-a-billion and maybe the nickel in your head will find a slot to fall into.

Odysseus
06-09-2008, 01:37 PM
Okay - we'll S L O W the baud rate down a bit: If a Chinese male would be willing to spend a day's wages five years ago for a pack of American smokes - how much of a leap is it for him to go from a bicycle to a little gas powered scooter now? Now take that thought and multiply his consumption by half-a-billion and maybe the nickel in your head will find a slot to fall into.

Once again, the voices in your head have led you astray. This is what is known, in Latin, as a non-sequitur, which translates as "it does not follow." The consumption of one commodity does not necessarily bear any relation to consumption of another, and may even preclude it. To assume that cigarette smoking can be extrapolated to scooter ownership is absurd. The scooter is, on a very small scale, a capital investment, far more expensive than a bicycle, much less a pack of smokes. It's something that you save for over the long run, especially since China lacks credit at the micro-level. Cigarette smoking is a daily expense that actually interferes with savings and reduces the likelyhood of capital investment, since it literally puts disposable income up in smoke. To the extent that Chinese men are willing to spend their wages on nicotine, they will be unable to afford scooters, consumer electronics, or any other goods which would drive up their overall energy consumption.

But, hey, I thought that Iraq was in Asia. What do I know? :p

LogansPapa
06-09-2008, 02:18 PM
If you can’t see the connection between going from a ten cent pack of dung smokes all the way up to buying American smokes - just as a status symbol and the fact that if you've got a scooter over your co-worker’s bicycle that gets you to a job further from your home - quicker - then you’re not much of a Jew.

Leave your head in the sand, because as we all know - Iraq’s culture and economic development’s just like China’s.

LogansPapa
06-09-2008, 03:21 PM
Oil consumers ask for boost in output

Five energy-consuming nations say price surge hurts global economy

Associated Press / updated 1:14 p.m. ET June 8, 2008



"World oil production has stalled at about 85 million barrels a day since 2005, while global economic growth — boosted by spectacular surges in China and India — has pushed demand to unprecedented levels."


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25024799/

MrsSmith
06-09-2008, 07:02 PM
Holding the Key to Gas Prices

WASHINGTON -- Rising in the Senate on May 13, Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat, explained: "I rise to discuss rising energy prices." The president was heading to Saudi Arabia to seek an increase in its oil production, and Schumer's gorge was rising.

Saudi Arabia, he said, "holds the key to reducing gasoline prices at home in the short term." Therefore arms sales to that kingdom should be blocked unless it "increases its oil production by one million barrels per day," which would cause the price of gasoline to fall "50 cents a gallon almost immediately."

Can a senator, with so many things on his mind, know so precisely how the price of gasoline would respond to that increase in the oil supply? Schumer does know that if you increase the supply of something, the price of it probably will fall. That is why he and 96 other senators recently voted to increase the supply of oil on the market by stopping the flow of oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which protects against major physical interruptions. Seventy-one of the 97 senators who voted to stop filling the SPR also oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

One million barrels is what might today be flowing from ANWR if in 1995 President Clinton had not vetoed legislation to permit drilling there. One million barrels produce 27 million gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel. Seventy-two of today's senators -- including Schumer, of course, and 38 other Democrats, including Barack Obama, and 33 Republicans, including John McCain -- have voted to keep ANWR's estimated 10.4 billion barrels of oil off the market.

So Schumer, according to Schumer, is complicit in taking $10 away from every American who buys 20 gallons of gasoline. "Democracy," said H.L. Mencken, "is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard." The common people of New York want Schumer to be their senator, so they should pipe down about gasoline prices, which are a predictable consequence of their political choice.

>>>

LINK (http://www.townhall.com/columnists/GeorgeWill/2008/06/05/holding_the_key_to_gas_prices)

One million barrels is what might today be flowing from ANWR if in 1995 President Clinton had not vetoed legislation to permit drilling there. One million barrels produce 27 million gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel.

Constitutionally Speaking
06-09-2008, 08:18 PM
LINK (http://www.townhall.com/columnists/GeorgeWill/2008/06/05/holding_the_key_to_gas_prices)

One million barrels is what might today be flowing from ANWR if in 1995 President Clinton had not vetoed legislation to permit drilling there. One million barrels produce 27 million gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel.


Combine ANWR with the TRILLIONS of barrels we have RIGHT HERE - but cannot touch - and we would have an oil GLUT. Prices would fall through the floor.


If you are pissed off about the price of gas, and the state of our economy, you need to look no further than the Democratic Party. They are nearly 100% responsible for the supply problems that are causing prices to skyrocket and thus doing harm to our economy.

Odysseus
06-09-2008, 08:44 PM
If you can’t see the connection between going from a ten cent pack of dung smokes all the way up to buying American smokes - just as a status symbol and the fact that if you've got a scooter over your co-worker’s bicycle that gets you to a job further from your home - quicker - then you’re not much of a Jew.

What can I say? We can't all[/B ]be international bankers. Some of us have to be Soldiers, if for no other reason than the existence of ignorant anti-semites. If it weren't for you, I could have gone into a much more lucrative field.

The connection between smoking and scooters is tenuous, at best. The former is consumption of an expendable product that does not enhance the consumer's economic status (in fact, it erodes it, as his disposable income is spent on smokes instead of being saved or invested), the latter is a capital investment that provides transportation and therefore economic opportunities. The only connection between the two is that the more that a Chinese worker spends on expendable consumables, the less he has to spend on a scooter. To equate the two is idiotic, but that is what we've come to expect from you.


Leave your head in the sand, because as we all know - Iraq’s culture and economic development’s just like China’s.

I never said that it was. What I did say, and what you keep ignoring, is that [B]Iraq is in Asia. That's about all that it has in common with China. Once again, you asked if I'd ever been to Asia, and I said that I had. You're the one who can't seem to accept that Iraq is in Asia.