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satanica
07-23-2009, 05:56 PM
“Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” he said. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6 percent to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8 percent to 90.4 and is 11.1 percent above April 2008.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/06/phs_up

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 05:57 PM
With all the foreclosure sales I am not surprised.:rolleyes:

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 05:58 PM
Come on answer boy I asked 3 very relavent questions on obama's lying ways.

satanica
07-23-2009, 05:59 PM
Durable goods up again...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124584597574346891.html

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:00 PM
Durable goods up again...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124584597574346891.html

How are those unemployment numbers?

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:01 PM
Come on answer boy I asked 3 very relavent questions on obama's lying ways.

DOW tops 9000

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1T4GGIH_enUS287US287&ei=oN1oSoiuA43eNa72uacL&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=dow+jones&spell=1

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:02 PM
DOW tops 9000

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1T4GGIH_enUS287US287&ei=oN1oSoiuA43eNa72uacL&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=dow+jones&spell=1

HOw are those unemployment numbers?

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:03 PM
DOW tops 9000

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1T4GGIH_enUS287US287&ei=oN1oSoiuA43eNa72uacL&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=dow+jones&spell=1

Ya the Dow was above 9k before the dems took over congress in 06

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:04 PM
What was the unemployment numbers before Obama was elected? or for that matter the DOW?

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:06 PM
Layoffs slowing

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/fed-economy/05062009-ADP-Report.aspx

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:07 PM
Layoffs slowing

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/fed-economy/05062009-ADP-Report.aspx

What is the unemployment rate now? what was it supposed to not get under if we enacted that stupid stimulus?

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:08 PM
I didnt ask you if they are slowing I asked you what the number was it should not be hard for someone such as yourself.

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:09 PM
Unemployment claims slow

http://www.oliverwillis.com/breakingnews/unemployment-claims-slow

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:11 PM
Unemployment claims slow

http://www.oliverwillis.com/breakingnews/unemployment-claims-slow

They dont know if people are finding work or giving up on unemployment.


You failed to give me the unemployment number again.

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:11 PM
Consumer Confidence up

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

lacarnut
07-23-2009, 06:11 PM
HOw are those unemployment numbers?

You are beginning to learn how to play the game. He does not answer your question, so you ask his dumb ass a question. Tack on that he is a lazy no good for nothing lefty along with being a dumb ass and you have the perfect answer.

He loses; you win.

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:12 PM
Consumer Confidence up

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

Still waiting.....

BadCat
07-23-2009, 06:12 PM
Layoffs slowing

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/fed-economy/05062009-ADP-Report.aspx

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Over half a million is "slowing"?

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:13 PM
HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Over half a million is "slowing"?

lol

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:14 PM
Mark my words obama will be a one term prez.

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:14 PM
US personal savings skyrocket under Obama, Crash under Bush

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:15 PM
US personal savings skyrocket under Obama, Crash under Bush

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

What are the unemployment numbers again?

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:16 PM
Personal spending up

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:16 PM
What is the the proposed budget deficit for the first year of obama's term?

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:18 PM
Consumer Confidence up

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/15/consumer-price-index-markets-transcript-fed.html

You forgot the word "seems"


Meanwhile, the consumer seems to be improving; the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index showed its best reading since September, with a preliminary May total of 67.9.

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:21 PM
Come on kiki what is the unemployment numbers?


What were they going to be (in obamas words) if the stimulus plan passed?

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:21 PM
Economy stabilizes under Obama

http://www.guaranteedrate.com/news/mortgage-market-stabilizes-mortgage-relief.php

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:22 PM
Economy stabilizes under Obama

http://www.guaranteedrate.com/news/mortgage-market-stabilizes-mortgage-relief.php

BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHA thanks douche i needed that laugh.

Lars1701a
07-23-2009, 06:23 PM
Well i am out of this thread untill he provides me with the unemployment number and what it was supposed to be when the stimulus bill was passed.:)

Rockntractor
07-23-2009, 06:23 PM
Economy stabilizes despite interference from Obama

http://www.guaranteedrate.com/news/mortgage-market-stabilizes-mortgage-relief.php

Fixed!

satanica
07-23-2009, 06:24 PM
Lending back up

http://columbus.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2009/06/01/daily19.html

Rockntractor
07-23-2009, 06:27 PM
Lending back up

http://columbus.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2009/06/01/daily19.html

Give me an honest answer to my question!
http://www.conservativeunderground.com/forum505/showthread.php?p=160870#post160870

BadCat
07-23-2009, 06:59 PM
He himself is still unemployed and will remain so for some time.

Obumble is doing a GREAT job for him.

satanica
07-30-2009, 09:05 PM
Housing sales soar...

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1T4GGIH_enUS287US287&ei=WUNySpLlBovwMr--kaAP&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=housing+sales+soar&spell=1

Molon Labe
07-30-2009, 09:10 PM
Statistical Deceptions
by Paul Craig Roberts


Last week on NPR, a professor in the Sloan School of Management at MIT explained that what is really at stake in the health-care bill is the U.S. government’s ability to borrow. In other words, the bill is about cutting health-care costs, not about providing hard-pressed Americans with health care.
The professor said that if we didn’t get health-care costs under control, in 30 years the U.S. government would not be able to sell Treasury bonds.

It is not at all clear that the Treasury will be able to sell its debt instruments in 30 months, and it has nothing to do with health-care costs. The Treasury debt-marketing problem has to do with two back-to-back U.S. fiscal year budgets each with a $2 trillion deficit. The size of the U.S. deficit exceeds in these troubled times the supply of world savings available to fund the U.S. government’s wars, bailouts and stimulus plans. If the Federal Reserve has to monetize the Treasury’s new borrowings by creating demand deposits for the Treasury (printing money), America’s foreign creditors might flee the dollar.

The professor didn’t seem to know anything about this and gave Washington 30 more years before the proverbial hits the fan.

One looks in vain to the U.S. financial media for accurate economic information. Currently, Wall Street, the White House and the media are hyping a new sign of economic recovery—”surging” June home sales. John Williams at shadowstats.com predicted this latest reporting deception.

Here is the way Williams explains how statistics can produce false signs of recovery. The economy has been contracting for so long that a plateauing of the falloff in home sales compared to the previous time period’s more rapid contraction can appear like a gain.

The Census Bureau itself notes that the reported 11 percent increase in June home sales might be illusory. The reporting agency says that the gain is not statistically meaningful at a 90 percent confidence interval and that “the Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.”

Williams explains other data distortions likely to create false hopes and lead to investment losses. Financial stresses from the current state of the economy have changed behavior. This means that normal seasonal adjustments to statistical data can result in misleading information.

For example, the recent decline that was reported in seasonally adjusted new unemployment claims was a result of the normal adjustments for the retooling of auto lines that did not, in fact, take place to the normal extent due to the bankruptcies and uncertainties. Adding in seasonal adjustments that did not in fact take place artificially reduced the unemployment claims.

Williams warns that after a period of contraction, new monthly or quarterly figures are being compared to prior periods of collapsing activity. “Improvements” are thus artifacts of the prior collapse and not signs of economic rebound.

The “Birth-Death Model” is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the net of the non-reported jobs lost by failed businesses (deaths) and new jobs created by start-up companies (births). Williams explains why the model understates job loss during periods of contraction. The modeling on which the birth-death adjustment is based consists primarily of periods of economic growth when there are more non-reported start-up jobs than non-reported job losses from business failures.

The BLS model came up with a monthly adjustment of 75,000 new jobs added to the reported number. That means an adjustment factor of 900,000 new jobs added to the reported payroll jobs number each year.

During economic contraction such as the current one, however, it is wrong to assume that new start-ups are creating 75,000 jobs each month more than are being lost to business failures. Thus the job losses are understated by the 900,000 upside birth-death adjustment and by the absence of a downside adjustment to estimate the jobs lost as a result of failed companies that cease to report.

The reported unemployment rate is itself deceptive, as it no longer includes discouraged workers who have been unemployed for more than a year. These long-term discouraged workers are simply erased from the rolls of the unemployed.

The Consumer Price Index no longer measures a constant standard of living and is not comparable to pre-Clinton periods. During the 1990s, the CPI ceased to be based on a weighted fixed assortment. The principle of substitution was introduced.

For example, under the old measure, if the price of steak rose, the CPI rose. Under the new measure, if the price of steak rises, the index switches to hamburger on the assumption that consumers substitute hamburger for steak.

Consumer confidence typically is swayed by “good news” hype. The drops in the Conference Board’s and the University of Michigan’s measures of consumer confidence in July suggest that Americans are becoming inured to recovery hype and are realizing that the government and the media lie about the economy just as they lie about everything else.

Molon Labe
07-30-2009, 09:44 PM
Sales by CDOs May Add $2 Billion Mortgage-Debt Supply a Month

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLEFdzxiRl6I

More Green shoots

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/YRC-Worldwide-posts-huge-2Q-apf-2258278872.html?x=0&.v=5


And success in the banks

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/10/news/economy/bank_failures/

Big money involved here

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/07/20/daily105.html


See...BO knows it's all sucky....He just won't admit it.

djones520
07-30-2009, 09:45 PM
With all the foreclosure sales I am not surprised.:rolleyes:

No kidding. I was inches from getting a 1500 square foot, 3 bedroom, full basement, 2 car garage, on 10 acres of land for $47,000. I contacted the realtor a day late for it, he'd already entered a contract with someone else.

satanica
07-30-2009, 09:51 PM
It's only 6 months, and you want to pass judgement ?

It took Reagan 2 years to turn around a recession that wasn't as deep, and the repubs praised him for it.

http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/ronald-reagan-approval.gif

Rockntractor
07-30-2009, 09:55 PM
It's only 6 months, and you want to pass judgement ?

It took Reagan 2 years to turn around a recession that wasn't as deep, and the repubs praised him for it.

http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/ronald-reagan-approval.gif

No need for a link Satty it is just you and me. I trust you!

satanica
07-30-2009, 10:17 PM
No need for a link Satty it is just you and me. I trust you!

And 60 guests.

They see everything.

Rockntractor
07-30-2009, 10:32 PM
Lets have cake!
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/chocolate-cake.jpg?t=1249005622

Gingersnap
07-30-2009, 10:40 PM
Well, as far as I can see, Molon labe won this one.

Pie anyone? :D

patriot45
07-30-2009, 10:48 PM
Well, as far as I can see, Molon labe won this one.

Pie anyone? :D

http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i230/patriot45270/potd_pi-pie.jpg

Lars1701a
07-30-2009, 10:50 PM
Well I wish i had some pie :(

patriot45
07-30-2009, 10:55 PM
Well I wish i had some pie :(

Give him some moon(bat)pie!
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i230/patriot45270/a_moonpie-cook-214.jpg

Lars1701a
07-30-2009, 10:56 PM
Give him some moon(bat)pie!
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i230/patriot45270/a_moonpie-cook-214.jpg

No not the kind of pie I like sorry :(

patriot45
07-30-2009, 11:21 PM
No not the kind of pie I like sorry :(

That wasn't for you. But whats wrong with moon pies!?!

Nubs
07-30-2009, 11:41 PM
So do I have this right

People are cashing in on CDO's. They are cashing them in as they are worth more than than the paper they own on the investment.

So they are betting on losing and they are reaping a higher reward than betting that things are getting better?

Japandroid
07-31-2009, 12:23 AM
Unemployment #'s are ALWAYS the last thing to recover in a recession. The trend is undoubtedly upwards, you cannot say this economy is getting worse.

Jfor
07-31-2009, 12:47 AM
It's getting worse. I said it. Analysts have already said we would se an uptick before the bottom fell out.

Japandroid
07-31-2009, 02:37 AM
It's getting worse. I said it. Analysts have already said we would se an uptick before the bottom fell out.

We saw an uptick on the spring then it went back down. This looks much more like recovery than fluke.

FlaGator
07-31-2009, 06:01 AM
We saw an uptick on the spring then it went back down. This looks much more like recovery than fluke.

Watch for the upswing in unemployment claims when the new minimum wage takes its toll on small businesses.

Molon Labe
07-31-2009, 08:07 AM
Unemployment #'s are ALWAYS the last thing to recover in a recession. The trend is undoubtedly upwards, you cannot say this economy is getting worse.

Banks also don't fail by the bushel in a recession either. This situation is entirelly different than what your used to in a recession.
Don't just limit yourself to unemployment....Check out those links for June and July I posted above just one more time. The MSM won't report that the projections for bank failures are in the 100's to mulitple 100's...but the trends are out there for anyone that wants to research the truth. Let's hope not...but it doesn't look good. And propping up the bad ones is only making things worse.



We saw an uptick on the spring then it went back down. This looks much more like recovery than fluke.

This is a basic economic principle. Not saying it's always so, but I'll bet it is in this case.


The economy has been contracting for so long that a plateauing of the falloff in home sales compared to the previous time period’s more rapid contraction can appear like a gain.

Sonnabend
07-31-2009, 08:15 AM
The economy has been contracting for so long that a plateauing of the falloff in home sales compared to the previous time period’s more rapid contraction can appear like a gain.

My guess is that the housing bubble will pick up...but not for at least 18 months

Lager
07-31-2009, 11:17 AM
Prices were going up to the point where housing was way overvalued. The bubble bursts, the bottom drops out and home values plummet. The recession starts and prices drop further. Now, as prices have fallen so low, people suddenly are picking up houses at reasonable values, and more people can afford houses now without having to use subprime loans. You know..., it almost sounds like a natural economic cycle. Not the end of the world as many wanted to believe. Funny how that works.

satanica
07-31-2009, 11:20 AM
My guess is that the housing bubble will pick up...but not for at least 18 months


LOL

And your guess was that the Patriot Act was read for 45 days before it was passed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdT0RNYoFfM

You also guessed that your OWN country was opposed to Obama
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/obama-wins-by-a-landslide--in-australia/2008/09/29/1222650989574.html

Any more guesses ? ...

LOL

BadCat
07-31-2009, 11:23 AM
Prices were going up to the point where housing was way overvalued. The bubble bursts, the bottom drops out and home values plummet. The recession starts and prices drop further. Now, as prices have fallen so low, people suddenly are picking up houses at reasonable values. You know..., it almost sounds like a natural economic cycle. Not the end of the world as many wanted to believe. Funny how that works.

Low interest rates, low housing prices - doesn't take a genius to figure out that people will buy under those conditions.

Gingersnap
07-31-2009, 11:24 AM
Prices were going up to the point where housing was way overvalued. The bubble bursts, the bottom drops out and home values plummet. The recession starts and prices drop further. Now, as prices have fallen so low, people suddenly are picking up houses at reasonable values. You know..., it almost sounds like a natural economic cycle. Not the end of the world as many wanted to believe. Funny how that works.

No kidding. I can remember people walking by my house and knocking on the door with ridiculous offers at one point. We knew that kind of hyper-valuation couldn't possibly last.

I was lucky to sell out on top and buy when things were sliding downward at a rapid clip. ;)

Lager
07-31-2009, 11:27 AM
I'm hoping it is a sign of a full blown recovery. Simply so Obama doesn't try anything else to "save us from falling off a cliff". I think he needs and deserves a vacation. I think we need a vacation from his town hall meetings, press conferences etc. Get his face off the news for awhile. I don't think we need any more "teaching moments" for awhile.

Lager
07-31-2009, 11:30 AM
No kidding. I can remember people walking by my house and knocking on the door with ridiculous offers at one point. We knew that kind of hyper-valuation couldn't possibly last.

I was lucky to sell out on top and buy when things were sliding downward at a rapid clip. ;)

Great timing. I have faith that cycles like this are natural, and sometimes necessary. Some are hurt, some actually take advantage, and hopefully, in the long run it's a good lesson for everyone who forgets that boom times don't last forever.

enslaved1
07-31-2009, 12:15 PM
I'm hoping it is a sign of a full blown recovery. Simply so Obama doesn't try anything else to "save us from falling off a cliff". I think he needs and deserves a vacation. I think we need a vacation from his town hall meetings, press conferences etc. Get his face off the news for awhile. I don't think we need any more "teaching moments" for awhile.

Amen. I don't know how much more help we can handle.

Molon Labe
07-31-2009, 12:20 PM
Hey....No matter how you try to spin, lie, or dream about pie in the sky...this is the 4th consecutive quarter the economy's went into the negative.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/q2-gdp-falls-10-shallower-than-past-6-months-2009-07-31


These trends aren't so pretty

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/bank-failures-reported-by-fdic-2/


Here's the complete list....Check out the Ones in Illinois

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

lacarnut
07-31-2009, 12:45 PM
Hey....No matter how you try to spin, lie, or dream about pie in the sky...this is the 4th consecutive quarter the economy's went into the negative.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/q2-gdp-falls-10-shallower-than-past-6-months-2009-07-31


These trends aren't so pretty

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/bank-failures-reported-by-fdic-2/


Here's the complete list....Check out the Ones in Illinois

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

You can not polish a turd. Obama and the liberals keep trying though.

GDP down 4 quarters in a row; that has never happened before since records have been kept since 1947.

satanica
07-31-2009, 12:50 PM
You can not polish a turd. Obama and the liberals keep trying though.

GDP down 4 quarters in a row; that has never happened before since records have been kept since 1947.

But keep telling me the Carter recession was worse ....OOOOPS

Just goes to show how much Bush fucked things up.

Next quarter, POSITIVE GDP.

Then what guys ?

All trends point to recovery, I know you are hearing this on TV.

BadCat
07-31-2009, 12:54 PM
http://mirror-in-bom1.gallery.hd.org/_tn/std/bizarre/_more2005/_more10/cat-kitten-with-silly-hat-dancing-animated-1-DHD.gif

lacarnut
07-31-2009, 02:40 PM
Amen. I don't know how much more help we can handle.

In my opinion, we have not hit bottom yet. 6 1/2 million jobs lost in the last 2 years; business are still laying off employees. 100k jobs need to be created each month to keep up with the increase in population.

Many ARM's are going to re-set in the latter part of 2009 and also in 2010. The liberal media is trying hard to put a positive spin on the housing market. Fact: there is a 9 month supply of homes on the market. Those re-set are going to force a bunch out of their homes if they can not get re-financing.

Molon Labe
07-31-2009, 04:52 PM
Look...More Green shoots!

In Chicaga'

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-corus-capitalization-jul31,0,2268896.story


A quick google search of noncurrent loans (http://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=wn&q=non%20current%20loans)yields quite another story to any thought that our economy is A-OK

City National Bank edges into the red
Bizjournals.com - Brian Bandell - ‎Jul 30, 2009‎
The bank experienced a big increase in noncurrent loans during the second quarter as they reached $53.6 million, or 2.73 percent of its total loans. ...

Despite TARP money, First Southern Bank shrinks loans
Bizjournals.com - Brian Bandell - ‎2 hours ago‎
The bank's noncurrent loans declined to $4.7 million, or 1.45 percent of its total loans, as of June 30, down from $6.1 million, or 1.83 percent of its ...

Mellon United loses $110M in Q2
Bizjournals.com - Brian Bandell - ‎3 hours ago‎
It boosted its reserve for future loan losses to $89.1 million, or 53 percent of its noncurrent loans, from a 29 percent coverage ratio in the first quarter ...

Coconut Grove Bank slips to a loss
Bizjournals.com - Brian Bandell - ‎7 minutes ago‎
The bank's $8.7 million reserve for future loan losses covered 34 percent of its noncurrent loans in the second quarter, down from a 38 percent coverage ...