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LibraryLady
07-11-2008, 07:08 PM
Glow Fading? (http://www.newsweek.com/id/145737)

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only 3 points. What a difference a few weeks can make.


A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.

John
07-11-2008, 07:16 PM
I sure hope the Libertarian base rejects Bob Barr. Not because I don't like Barr, but Barr isn't a Libertarian, he's a Republican and he knows it. If the Libertarians' own nominee is a republican, than hopefully LP voters will do the math and figure out that they are voting for a Republican either way so they might as well help out the one who can actually win. If the election is this close than the LP & CP can make a difference.

Eyelids
07-11-2008, 07:43 PM
I read this thing by somebody in the Reagan White House (I've forgotten who) who said that this was a predictable event. Human nature dictates that many Obama supporters will turn to themselves and say "Is this what we really want?" and then reevaluate thier decision. The same thing would happen to McCain if he was up 10% nationwide.

Its important to remember that you much rather be ahead and second-guessed than behind and scrambling to take advantage of a very short window.

Eyelids
07-11-2008, 07:45 PM
http://bp0.blogger.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SHejbOQDz7I/AAAAAAAABzc/467ktSXRciA/S1600-R/0711_super.PNG

Obama is still beating statistical models too, so Im not sure this even worth discussing.

LibraryLady
07-11-2008, 07:51 PM
But TimesOnline warns that only once in 20 years has the leader in the June polls gone on to win most votes at the election:



As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.

Mr Bush led the relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of 92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent.

June 1996 polls showed the incumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a more respectable 8.5 percent.

2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percent.

And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.

BEG
07-11-2008, 08:25 PM
Boy Eyelids sure is trying hard. :D

lacarnut
07-11-2008, 08:45 PM
Boy Eyelids sure is trying hard. :D

He is still a boy. Independents and Hispanics will vote in large numbers for McCain. These polls are meaningless at this juncture. The polls will have Obama leading on election day and McCain will win in a landslide. The pollsters will say that the worm turned in McCain's favor the last day of the election. B.S. the polls are not accurate.

Eyelids
07-11-2008, 11:13 PM
He is still a boy. Independents and Hispanics will vote in large numbers for McCain. These polls are meaningless at this juncture. The polls will have Obama leading on election day and McCain will win in a landslide. The pollsters will say that the worm turned in McCain's favor the last day of the election. B.S. the polls are not accurate.

Obama has something like a 4:1 advantage with Hispanics.

LibraryLady
07-11-2008, 11:25 PM
Obama has something like a 4:1 advantage with Hispanics.

It must make you feel so cool to make up numbers.

I think the latest was 57-31%.

asdf2231
07-11-2008, 11:30 PM
Obama has something like a 4:1 advantage with Hispanics.


Gosh that's great!

Too bad older white people elect the Presidents in this country.

Deal with it.

lacarnut
07-11-2008, 11:45 PM
Gosh that's great!

Too bad older white people elect the Presidents in this country.

Deal with it.

Bush got around 20% of the Hispanic vote. McCain has 30%. A 50% increase and it will probably grow to 40per cent cause Hispanic's do not like blacks. I have worked with enough blacks to know the feeling is mutual.

Cold Warrior
07-12-2008, 07:30 AM
Bush got around 20% of the Hispanic vote. McCain has 30%. A 50% increase and it will probably grow to 40per cent cause Hispanic's do not like blacks. I have worked with enough blacks to know the feeling is mutual.

Bush got approximately 35% of the Hispanic vote vs Gore (http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp) and 44% vs Kerry (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26119-2004Dec25.html). Seems Eyelids isn't the only one who makes up numbers.

ReaganForRus
07-12-2008, 09:19 AM
If you remember, Kerry led Bush, Gore led Bush, Dukakis led Bush Sr, Mondale led Reagan and Carter led Reagan, I point this out for two reasons:

First, Clinton was not included since there were three candidates for President in 1992 and 1996, and Clinton was selected as a minority president based on actual votes cast.

Second, it shows the actual media bias in polling numbers, Dukakis with an 18 point lead coming out of convention and not being able to close the deal? Same with Kerry, Mondale, Gore and Carter, they had erectile convention disfunction, they had presumed rock hard leads over oppenents coming out of conventions and watched their sizable leads shrink in the face of actual performance.

Is Obama firm enough in his support to win an election as a frontrunner?

YupItsMe
07-12-2008, 11:02 AM
Eyelids:
This country's been led by rich white men for over 200 yrs. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
:)

FlaGator
07-12-2008, 11:15 AM
Boy Eyelids sure is trying hard. :D

Too bad statistical models can't vote.

LibraryLady
07-12-2008, 10:43 PM
The new Rasmussen poll has them tied at 43% each.

Eyelids
07-12-2008, 10:50 PM
If you remember, Kerry led Bush, Gore led Bush, Dukakis led Bush Sr, Mondale led Reagan and Carter led Reagan, I point this out for two reasons:
Gore did beat Bush nationwide.

LibraryLady
07-12-2008, 11:01 PM
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Obama receives unfavorable reviews from 44% of voters while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 41%. McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 22% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 54%.http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c..._tracking_poll

Thank God the Electoral College saved us from Gore.

Eyelids
07-12-2008, 11:04 PM
Thank God the Electoral College saved us from Gore.

Because were in such great shape with Bush.

LibraryLady
07-12-2008, 11:13 PM
If it was Gore, I'd be talking to Allah.




in Arabic.

Goldwater
07-12-2008, 11:28 PM
If it was Gore, I'd be talking to Allah.




in Arabic.

:p You are teh funny LL.

Zathras
07-13-2008, 01:41 AM
Because were in such great shape with Bush.

A lot better shape today than we would've been under Algore and his man-made global warming hoax....Oh and I guess they didn't teach english at that fancy college you went to...it's we're, not were.

asdf2231
07-13-2008, 01:12 PM
Because were in such great shape with Bush.


Hell Yeah!

Those tax cuts were great for us.

Hows Impeachment and that whole locking up KKKarl Rove thing while forcing the President to pull out of Iraq and getting all those Democrat policies pushed through going for you?

But hey at least you guys managed to lock up... Scooter Libby. Kudos.

Eyelids
07-13-2008, 01:14 PM
Hows Impeachment and that whole locking up KKKarl Rove thing while forcing the President to pull out of Iraq and getting all those Democrat policies pushed through going for you?
What the fuck are you talking about?

asdf2231
07-13-2008, 01:19 PM
What the fuck are you talking about?

The stunning progress that you people have made with a majority in both houses "Fixing" all the problems that you whine about constantly.

Liberals were doing the happy dance when the pandering retards you installed took over the congress and senate because they were going to FIX everything the evil Karl Rove and ChimpyMcHitler pants screwed up with America.

Eyelids
07-13-2008, 01:24 PM
The stunning progress that you people have made with a majority in both houses "Fixing" all the problems that you whine about constantly.

Liberals were doing the happy dance when the pandering retards you installed took over the congress and senate because they were going to FIX everything the evil Karl Rove and ChimpyMcHitler pants screwed up with America.

I hope you understand that its going to take a lot more than 1.5 years to even BEGIN to undo the damage of the Bush Administration. I feel bad for McCain or Obama if they win, theres no way either can get reelection because of the mess Bush has left them.

asdf2231
07-13-2008, 01:31 PM
I hope you understand that its going to take a lot more than 1.5 years to even BEGIN to undo the damage of the Bush Administration. I feel bad for McCain or Obama if they win, theres no way either can get reelection because of the mess Bush has left them.

That's the funniest thing I've seen someone post here in a while!

So your majority just sitting on their asses whining and doing exactly NOTHING for almost two years is because they are just overwhelmed with the magnitude of how GWB has destroyed the country.

Speaks well for you and your party.

I can't wait to see what happens if Saint Obama Of The Empty Suit gets elected.

The Schadenfruede has almost been too fun up till now watching the democrat idiots churn their wheels in place.

Bongo55
07-13-2008, 01:44 PM
That's the funniest thing I've seen someone post here in a while!

So your majority just sitting on their asses whining and doing exactly NOTHING for almost two years is because they are just overwhelmed with the magnitude of how GWB has destroyed the country.

Speaks well for you and your party.

I can't wait to see what happens if Saint Obama Of The Empty Suit gets elected.

The Schadenfruede has almost been too fun up till now watching the democrat idiots churn their wheels in place.

Don't forget the single digit approval rating for SUPER CONGRESS. :)

Odysseus
07-13-2008, 10:43 PM
I hope you understand that its going to take a lot more than 1.5 years to even BEGIN to undo the damage of the Bush Administration. I feel bad for McCain or Obama if they win, theres no way either can get reelection because of the mess Bush has left them.

Just what damage are you referring to? Seriously, how about an actual accounting of what you think that president has done or failed to do that you find offensive? Please use specific answers and use actual sources to back up your essay.

Goldwater
07-13-2008, 11:59 PM
How can they be tied, one of them has to suck more than the other.

ReaganForRus
07-14-2008, 09:27 AM
Gore did beat Bush nationwide.

Nope, nice try though, Gore lost