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Gingersnap
09-15-2009, 10:56 AM
Breaking Zogby/O’Leary Poll Shows a Sizable Majority of Americans Agree on Eight Critical Health Care Issues

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 14, 2009

Media Contact: Peyton Knight at (703) 272-1504 or peytonknight@pm-direct.com


Washington, D.C. — As the White House and congressional Democrats attempt to revive their embattled health care reform plan, a breaking new Zogby International/O’Leary Report poll shows that a strong majority of Americans agree on eight critical health care issues. On five health care-related issues, 70 Percent of Americans have put their partisan differences aside, and on three other issues a majority
of Americans agree by a 2-1 margin with what’s right for America on health care reform.

The Zogby/O’Leary Poll surveyed 4,426 likely voters on September 4-8 and has a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 1.5 percentage points. Below are the health care questions on which strong majorities of voters agree:

1. Currently, Americans may only purchase health insurance from a provider licensed in their state. Some say that Americans should be allowed to purchase health insurance from providers in different states possibly creating more competition and driving down the price of health insurance. Do you agree or
disagree?

Agree 82.8%
Disagree 6.9%
Not sure 10.2%

2. Currently, medical malpractice insurance costs doctors in some areas of the country up to $200,000 per year, a cost that doctors pass on to their patients in the form of higher fees for service. Do you agree or disagree that tort reform is needed?

Agree 78.5%
Disagree 12.4%
Not sure 9.1%

3. Do you support or oppose taxing employer-provided health care benefits?

Support 12.6%
Oppose 77.3%
Not sure 10.1%

4. There are currently 26 million Americans age 18 and older who can afford to purchase health insurance, but choose not to purchase it for a variety of reasons. There are also 12 million illegal immigrants in America who lack health insurance. Do you think taxes should be raised to fund a government-run health
insurance program for these people?

Yes 15.2%
No 75.0%
Not sure 9.8%

5. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should require all Americans to purchase health insurance, or face a fine?

Agree 18.5%
Disagree 70.2%
Not sure 11.3%

6. Do you agree or disagree that health insurers should be allowed to restrict coverage or charge higher premiums for patients with pre-existing conditions?

Agree 19.9%
Disagree 68.7%
Not sure 11.5%

7. President Obama is promoting a new government agency called the “Independent Medicare Advisory Council,” and some people believe this agency should use its powers to deny payment for procedures it deems unnecessary or futile. Others say that such power would interfere with the doctor-patient
relationship. Do you support or oppose the creation of an “Independent Medicare Advisory Council?”

Support 30.6%
Oppose 58.8%
Not sure 10.7%

8. Do you agree or disagree that Americans who lose or leave their jobs should be able to stay on their previous employer’s health insurance plan?

Agree 54.6%
Disagree 25.1%
Not sure 20.3%

“Congress should put forward a health care reform plan that addresses these eight issues on which most Americans agree,” said Brad O’Leary, publisher of The O’Leary Report. “In particular, tort reform and permitting Americans to purchase health insurance across state lines have near universal appeal with voters. New taxes, on the other hand, are almost universally opposed.”

O'Leary Report (http://www.olearyreport.com/media/pdf/PR_HealthCare1_8Questions_091409.pdf)

pssvr
09-15-2009, 11:17 AM
The results of this survey should be taken with a grain of salt, if that much. It does not stand up to scrutiny. Results from a random survey of a binomial variable (of which this is an example) are held by universal convention to a confidence standard of 95% in their confidence intervals. For math majors, that means alpha = 0.05. According to the rule of thumb that alpha = 0.05 corresponds to a z-score of 2, or two standard deviations on a normal curve (in reality it's about 1.96, not 2), we have that the margin of error of these results, in the worst case scenario of a 50-50 split, should be no more than plus or minus 1.96*sqrt(0.5*0.5 / 4426) = less than 1.5%. Yet the study reports a whopping 15% margin of error. This is only achievable in the case that a very large portion (plausibly about one third) of all people surveyed simply chose not to answer the question at all (different from choosing the 'not sure' response).

It is likely and obvious that, since the questions here are phrased in a pro-capitalist manner, liberals polled simply hung up the phone, so to speak, and that contributed to the tremendous margin of error. Assuming this is the case, the statistics should be read with the assumption that they are biased about 15% towards the capitalist end. Meaning you take 15 percentage points off all the conservative answers and add that to the liberal answers to get the REAL values.

Furthermore, these questions are syntactically horrid. We can see this by examining them from the perspective of a skeptical liberal.


1. Currently, Americans may only purchase health insurance from a provider licensed in their state. Some say that Americans should be allowed to purchase health insurance from providers in different states possibly creating more competition and driving down the price of health insurance. Do you agree or
disagree?
With what am I agreeing or disagreeing? With what 'some say', or with, as is the literal interpretation, the fact that some say it?


2. Currently, medical malpractice insurance costs doctors in some areas of the country up to $200,000 per year, a cost that doctors pass on to their patients in the form of higher fees for service. Do you agree or disagree that tort reform is needed?
Sure, I agree, but is my idea of reform at all similar to your idea?


3. Do you support or oppose taxing employer-provided health care benefits?
I oppose it because I don't think there should be employer-provided health care unless that employer is the government.


4. There are currently 26 million Americans age 18 and older who can afford to purchase health insurance, but choose not to purchase it for a variety of reasons. There are also 12 million illegal immigrants in America who lack health insurance. Do you think taxes should be raised to fund a government-run health
insurance program for these people?
No, not these people specifically, but people in general, yes.


5. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should require all Americans to purchase health insurance, or face a fine?
I disagree, because in my system people don't purchase insurance at all; it is free.


7. President Obama is promoting a new government agency called the “Independent Medicare Advisory Council,” and some people believe this agency should use its powers to deny payment for procedures it deems unnecessary or futile. Others say that such power would interfere with the doctor-patient
relationship. Do you support or oppose the creation of an “Independent Medicare Advisory Council?”
I have no idea what that actually is.


8. Do you agree or disagree that Americans who lose or leave their jobs should be able to stay on their previous employer’s health insurance plan?
I have no idea what this actually implies.

And thus we see that the survey is conducted in a way deliberately intended to make the liberal position sound like a conservative position, and also to scare away the really die-hard liberals and prevent them from answering.

patriot45
09-15-2009, 11:26 AM
You lost me at....
rule of thumb that alpha = 0.05 corresponds to a z-score of 2,

But-

http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i230/patriot45270/october/littlestory.jpg

pssvr
09-15-2009, 11:34 AM
Patriot: Don't get me wrong; nobody would like what this survey is suggesting to be true more than I would. Unfortunately it just isn't.

Gingersnap
09-15-2009, 12:01 PM
Patriot: Don't get me wrong; nobody would like what this survey is suggesting to be true more than I would. Unfortunately it just isn't.

I've talked with a lot of people about health reform and all of them would definitely agree with tort reform and opening up the insurance playing field across all 50 states. Even woolly-minded, self-proclaimed progressives agree with that (if they can't have "free" health care).

Rockntractor
09-15-2009, 12:09 PM
You lost me at....

But-

http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i230/patriot45270/october/littlestory.jpg

We are both just hicks patriot ! I understood every question on the poll as stated just like you.

pssvr
09-15-2009, 12:31 PM
I've talked with a lot of people about health reform and all of them would definitely agree with tort reform and opening up the insurance playing field across all 50 states. Even woolly-minded, self-proclaimed progressives agree with that (if they can't have "free" health care).
I'll give you that point about interstate commerce, no argument.

But I still have to ask what you mean by 'tort reform', since 'reform' can serve capitalist interests or socialist interests or neither, and just because you and Joe Demoncrat might both want reform doesn't mean you actually agree on anything.

NJCardFan
09-15-2009, 12:50 PM
Here's my views on these questions and I agree with pssvr in principle with how the questions wee stated but here goes:


1. Currently, Americans may only purchase health insurance from a provider licensed in their state. Some say that Americans should be allowed to purchase health insurance from providers in different states possibly creating more competition and driving down the price of health insurance. Do you agree or
disagree?
Agree to the point in principle, however, aren't most if not all health insurance companies national anyway? And if I buy my insurance in NJ yet get sick in Maui am I not covered? This question doesn't make any sense.


2. Currently, medical malpractice insurance costs doctors in some areas of the country up to $200,000 per year, a cost that doctors pass on to their patients in the form of higher fees for service. Do you agree or disagree that tort reform is needed?
Agree 100%.


3. Do you support or oppose taxing employer-provided health care benefits?
Oppose. The fact that this is even being discussed boggles the mind.


4. There are currently 26 million Americans age 18 and older who can afford to purchase health insurance, but choose not to purchase it for a variety of reasons. There are also 12 million illegal immigrants in America who lack health insurance. Do you think taxes should be raised to fund a government-run health
insurance program for these people?
Not only no but hell no. If you're here illegally and you get medical care we pay for it anyway and if you're young and stupid then it's on you and you're assets should be garnished to pay for any medical care you receive. Why the hell should I pay for mine and theirs as well?


5. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should require all Americans to purchase health insurance, or face a fine?
See my answer above. On what grounds would they be fined?


6. Do you agree or disagree that health insurers should be allowed to restrict coverage or charge higher premiums for patients with pre-existing conditions?
Agreed. Maybe not with restricted coverage but at a higher premium. It's like car insurance. If you've had multiple claims, you get dinged with a higher premium. If you have a pre-existing condition, the insurance company will be behind the 8 ball with you from jump street so it would be unfair to them in that aspect.


7. President Obama is promoting a new government agency called the “Independent Medicare Advisory Council,” and some people believe this agency should use its powers to deny payment for procedures it deems unnecessary or futile. Others say that such power would interfere with the doctor-patient
relationship. Do you support or oppose the creation of an “Independent Medicare Advisory Council?”
I oppose and and all expansion of government. Why isn't this already in place within Medicare?


8. Do you agree or disagree that Americans who lose or leave their jobs should be able to stay on their previous employer’s health insurance plan?
If you leave on your own free will, then I disagree. If you're laid off, then agree but for a certain period of time. If you're fired, then I disagree.

PoliCon
09-15-2009, 09:41 PM
This is the only issue I disagree with the majority over.
Do you agree or disagree that health insurers should be allowed to restrict coverage or charge higher premiums for patients with pre-existing conditions?

Agree 19.9%
Disagree 68.7%
Not sure 11.5%

It's no different than when you buy car insurace: The higher the risk - the more you should have to pay. Safe drivers should and do pay less for insurance than do risky drivers. Healthy people should pay less for their insurance than do sick people who are more likely to have to use it.

Rockntractor
09-15-2009, 09:47 PM
This is the only issue I disagree with the majority over.

It's no different than when you buy car insurace: The higher the risk - the more you should have to pay. Safe drivers should and do pay less for insurance than do risky drivers. Healthy people should pay less for their insurance than do sick people who are more likely to have to use it.

Next you will be wanting a short person discount because there are less inches to get sick!

FeebMaster
09-15-2009, 09:54 PM
This is the only issue I disagree with the majority over.

It's no different than when you buy car insurace: The higher the risk - the more you should have to pay. Safe drivers should and do pay less for insurance than do risky drivers. Healthy people should pay less for their insurance than do sick people who are more likely to have to use it.

Who would even bother getting insurance if they couldn't deny you for pre-existing conditions? Get sick, then get the insurance. Think of all the money you could save!

It'd be like getting in a car accident, then buying insurance to cover any damages.

I guess that's one way to reform the insurance industry. You'd put it out of business.

stsinner
09-15-2009, 10:40 PM
I disagree with number 8.. Employers attract good people with good benefits that derive from collective bargaining power. Larger companies could have literally tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of people on their insurance plans, both employed and formerly employed.

But I really do think that people should be able to purchase insurance no matter the state it's offered. It's only a commodity on paper that is transferred from one computer to another, so location doesn't matter. This would encourage healthy competition.

PoliCon
09-15-2009, 10:50 PM
Next you will be wanting a short person discount because there are less inches to get sick!

Remember we're talking about INSURANCE not maintenance.

PoliCon
09-15-2009, 10:50 PM
Who would even bother getting insurance if they couldn't deny you for pre-existing conditions? Get sick, then get the insurance. Think of all the money you could save!

It'd be like getting in a car accident, then buying insurance to cover any damages.

I guess that's one way to reform the insurance industry. You'd put it out of business.
:D
See everyone once in a while you contribute something sensible!

FeebMaster
09-15-2009, 10:53 PM
:D
See everyone once in a while you contribute something sensible!

It was an accident.

Rockntractor
09-15-2009, 10:58 PM
Remember we're talking about INSURANCE not maintenance.

Now days health insurance unlike auto insurance has to pay for maintenance. That's part of the problem.

PoliCon
09-15-2009, 11:25 PM
Now days health insurance unlike auto insurance has to pay for maintenance. That's part of the problem.

and part of the solution is divorcing the two.