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Gingersnap
09-25-2009, 10:06 AM
Study refutes connection of global warming and storm intensity
by Tom Hayes on September 23, 2009

in Education, Environment & Conservation, News

Over the past 70 years, hurricane frequency in the Atlantic basin is up, but the strength of the storms have remained relatively constant. Those are the conclusions of a new study conducted by Clemson University researchers. Clemson Professor of Mathematical Sciences Robert Lund participated in the study that looked at changes in the tropical cycle record in the North Atlanticbetween 1851 and 2008. Lund says he knows global warming is a hot button issue and many researchers have maintained that warming waters of the Atlantic are increasing the strengths of these storms. We do not see evidence for this at all, however we do find that the number of storms has recently increased.”

”We took a look at the record from 1851 to 2008 and we did find a lot of changes besides recent changes. For instance, we found that around 1935 the count radically increased and that was probably do to aircraft reconnaissance, being able to fly out into the ocean and see these storms.”

Also participating in the study were Michael Robbins and Colin Gallagher of Clemson along with Mississippi State University Mathematics professor Dr. QIQi ( pronounced, chi-chi) Lu.

Lund says the increase in the frequency of hurricanes and some measurable increase in strength of the storms was first observed from data from the beginning of the 20th century. Lund attributes the observations from better and more sophisticated technological devices used to monitor the storms. “We saw them from about 1900 which makes sense because most of the data recorded before 1900 was guesstimated and not very consistent. We also found small changes in the strengthof the storms around 1960 which coincides with the onset of satellites.”

Lund says in a number of studies involving the analysis of years and years of data, the study of probabilities is best conducted by mathematicians.”We have to play by the rules of probability and the laws of random chance. As statisticians and probabilists, we are not allowed to distort the conclusion nor are we invested in any particular outcome or inference from the data. We’re just going to crunch the numbers as best we can with rigorous probability assessments and tell you what we find.”

South Carolina (http://www.southcarolinaradionetwork.com/2009/09/23/study-refutes-connection-of-global-warming-and-storm-intensity/)

Elspeth
09-27-2009, 05:12 PM
Wow!

But what about the polar bears??? :D

AHeneen
09-30-2009, 02:26 AM
I posted a story a month ago about the increase in storms almost solely contributed to improved sattelite recon and weather data.

http://www.conservativeunderground.com/forum505/showthread.php?t=18120&highlight=NOAA+Hurricanes

djones520
09-30-2009, 06:35 AM
I posted a story a month ago about the increase in storms almost solely contributed to improved sattelite recon and weather data.

http://www.conservativeunderground.com/forum505/showthread.php?t=18120&highlight=NOAA+Hurricanes

Not to mention possible refining in the rules of classification. I think this season is a clear cut case proving this. There have been a number of storms in the Pacific that you wouldn't even dream of being called a Tropical System if you looked at it on a regular Satellite image, yet the JTWC classified them anyways.

The more and more we learn about these storms, the more and more we learn what makes them tick, and the sooner we can tag them with the label. Thats going to lead to an increase in numbers. It's not due to changing climate conditions, it's just due to us having a better understanding of the nature of the beast.

AHeneen
10-06-2009, 12:34 AM
There have been a number of storms in the Pacific that you wouldn't even dream of being called a Tropical System if you looked at it on a regular Satellite image, yet the JTWC classified them anyways.

Sorry for bringing up an old post, but Tropical Storm Grace formed early Sunday morning...just north/northwest of Spain and southwest of Ireland!!!!!

TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

...

GRACE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

Now do you think that storm, which just was absorbed by a front 24 hours after formation, would have been considered a tropical storm many years ago? Providing a ship even encountered it's small wind field, do you think anyone that near Europe in October would consider that storm to be of tropical origin?

Here's part of the latest/final advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/060238.shtml):

"...GRACE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 13.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND.!!!!!!!!!"