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View Full Version : Intrade: Brown 70, Coakley 30 (Brown surging)



megimoo
01-18-2010, 05:06 PM
Intrade: Brown 70, Coakley 30 (Brown surging)

Brown: 70 (bid 70, ask 74.5) Coakley: 30 (bid 25, ask 32)

NJCardFan
01-18-2010, 06:55 PM
Rassmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_special_senate_electio n) has Coakley up by 2 points and they are usually the closest to reality when it comes to polls.

ARG (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/) has Brown ahead by 7.

PoliCon
01-18-2010, 07:36 PM
Intrade: Brown 70, Coakley 30 (Brown surging)

Brown: 70 (bid 70, ask 74.5) Coakley: 30 (bid 25, ask 32)


ooo that's good :) I don't think that they have ever been wrong . . . .

Swampfox
01-18-2010, 07:48 PM
Rassmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_special_senate_electio n) has Coakley up by 2 points and they are usually the closest to reality when it comes to polls.

ARG (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/) has Brown ahead by 7.

Rasmussen is usually pretty good, but that poll was taken almost a week ago, when the race was much tighter. I'd be very curious to see the result of a Rasmussen poll now (if there is one)

Swampfox
01-18-2010, 07:52 PM
Politico/InAdv 1/17 - 1/17 804 LV 52 43 Brown +9
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/17 - 1/17 574 LV 52 42 Brown +10
PPP (D) 1/16 - 1/17 1231 LV 51 46 Brown +5
ARG 1/15 - 1/17 600 LV 52 45 Brown +7
Daily Kos/R2000 1/15 - 1/17 500 LV 48 48 Tie
InsideMedford/MRG 1/15 - 1/15 565 LV 51 41 Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/14 - 1/14 946 LV 54 39 Brown +15
ARG 1/12 - 1/14 600 LV 48 45 Brown +3
Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) 1/12 - 1/13 500 LV 41 49 Coakley +8
Suffolk/7News 1/11 - 1/13 500 LV 50 46 Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/11 - 1/11 1000 LV 47 49 Coakley +2

That's the polling data since Rasmussen's poll. (Blue Man Group and Daily Kos are democratic pollsters wheres as PJM/Cross Target is a Republican pollster, so I'd take those results with a grain of salt).

All in all, I'd say Brown has about a five to seven point advantage in the polls right now, which is outside the margin of error. It's all going to come down to turnout though and democrats have the voter registration advantage in that.

Rockntractor
01-18-2010, 07:53 PM
Rasmussen is usually pretty good, but that poll was taken almost a week ago, when the race was much tighter. I'd be very curious to see the result of a Rasmussen poll now (if there is one)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/latest_election_polls.html

PoliCon
01-18-2010, 08:08 PM
Do you people know what in trade is? These guys are not only great at predicting the winners - they are good at predicting by how much they will win!

Rockntractor
01-18-2010, 08:17 PM
Do you people know what in trade is? These guys are not only great at predicting the winners - they are good at predicting by how much they will win!
It is betting!

BadCat
01-18-2010, 08:20 PM
It is betting!

And bookies seldom lose.

PoliCon
01-18-2010, 08:20 PM
It is betting!

It's the political stock market.

Swampfox
01-18-2010, 08:20 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/latest_election_polls.html
I know. I copied and pasted those results in my other posts. I just don't see any Rasmussen polls since last week.

stsinner
01-18-2010, 09:14 PM
I heard that the polling stopped when the Coakley negative ads started, so it can't be judged how her nasty, lying ads have helped or hurt her.. I admire how Brown has been the bigger person and not gone after Coakley.. She has not said a thing about herself and what she stands for. She has decided to put all her hopes on trying to tear Scott Brown down.. You should hear the awesome commercial running here in MA that was made by his two daughters. They take turns speaking, telling how Coakley has decided that the way she will try to win is by, "Tearing down our dad.' It's a brilliant spot, and I hear it several times on my 50-minute drive to work.

"My dad would always stand up for the rights and needs of rape victims, and he’s kind, understanding and he’s a very compassionate father and man," Alya Brown told AP. "Martha Coakely’s new negative ad represents everything that discourages young women from getting involved in politics. And as a young woman, I'm completely offended by that."

Arianna agreed, telling AP, "My dad is a loving man who is a father. He is a husband, he is a soldier and he is a dedicated legislator. He is a man who cares deeply and would do anything for the three woman (in his family) and the other women of this country."

http://www.lifenews.com/state4720.html