PDA

View Full Version : You do the math.



Articulate_Ape
02-05-2010, 11:44 AM
Now maybe my math skilz are wanting, but I would like to know how in the hell the US economy could enter Jan 2010 with a 10%+ unemployment rate, continue to shed jobs throughout the month of Jan, and yet have the unemployment rate drop to 9.7% for that month; as baffled economists suggest (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFvLQKf6GQsY). I can only assume that a) more people ran out of their unemployment benefits and so are truly screwed, or b) someone is cooking the books.

While I would love to see more people working, something doesn't add up here. What say you?

Gingersnap
02-05-2010, 11:48 AM
I'll take "Cooking the Books" for $500, Alex.

noonwitch
02-05-2010, 03:20 PM
On the news last night, they were saying that the statistic was expected to be 10.1%, that unemployment had risen slightly in January (probably due to the end of temporary retail jobs for the Christmas season).

The "experts" were not expecting that number to drop until the second half of the year, when Ford and some other major companies are expected to hire some people back and the census takers are counted as employed, however temporary that may be. Ford is talking 1200 jobs added back in Michigan alone. This is wonderful news for us.

ColonialMarine0431
02-05-2010, 03:44 PM
Interesting read on those figures...


The Real Story Behind Our Unemployment Numbers

By John Lott
- FOXNews.com

A slight improvement in the jobless rate but what is the government hiding about the picture for most of 2009?

Most people seem to believe that the number of Americans with jobs is a clearly identifiable number. All you do is count up the number of people with jobs. Unfortunately, that isn't the way it works. The number reported each month is based on surveys, and surveys have can often have problems. As it turns out, the surveys estimating the number of people with jobs reported over the last couple of years suffered from some really big problems. The economy actually lost about 824,000 more jobs during the recession than we previously thought.

But those adjustments have so far only been made through March 2009, and there are strong reasons to believe that the survey data since then also needs to be adjusted downward.

There are two ways economists measure the number of jobs, the establishment survey that asks about 370,000 employers how many people they are employing and the household survey that asks about 110,000 people each month whether they are working.

FULL STORY (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/02/05/john-lott-unemployment-jobs-bureau-labor-statistics-grim/)

lacarnut
02-05-2010, 03:49 PM
Now maybe my math skilz are wanting, but I would like to know how in the hell the US economy could enter Jan 2010 with a 10%+ unemployment rate, continue to shed jobs throughout the month of Jan, and yet have the unemployment rate drop to 9.7% for that month; as baffled economists suggest (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFvLQKf6GQsY). I can only assume that a) more people ran out of their unemployment benefits and so are truly screwed, or b) someone is cooking the books.

While I would love to see more people working, something doesn't add up here. What say you?

The unemployment figure does not contain those that unemployment benefits have run out. Therefore, if a larger number drop from the rolls than the new ones that just applied, the percentage drops. The real figure, rather than the phony baloney one the gov. comes up, with is actually around 17%. Governmental accounting is a way to cook the books.