PDA

View Full Version : Scientists predicted the possibility of cold air outbreaks in late winter



The Night Owl
02-17-2010, 10:32 AM
It seems that scientists predicted the possibility that this winter would be cold and snowy.

From 2009:


November Arctic sea ice: Ties 2007 record minimum
November 4, 5:56 PM | Dallas Weather Examiner | Steve LaNore

Arctic sea ice growth faced stiff resistance from nature in October, says the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Intense low pressure worked to generate strong southerly winds over the Arctic Ocean and Siberia, keeping ice from forming.

Temperatures were also as much as 10 degrees above average during portions of the month.

A study mentioned on the NSIDC website conducted at the University of Melbourne in Australia suggests that less summer sea ice cover can lead to a feedback loop: warmer water (less ice) provides more energy for storms; the winds from these storms delay ice formation during the fall, and so the cycle deepens.

This pattern retards ice growth but at the same time increases precipitation (snowfall) which accumulates over land areas. This makes for greater cold air reservoirs later in the winter. One might conclude this would lead to more cold air outbreaks in the U.S. and Canada, but the data is far too sketchy and recent to draw that conclusion.

...

http://www.examiner.com/x-5182-Dallas-Weather-Examiner~y2009m11d4-November-Arctic-sea-ice-Warm-winds-keep-ice-cover-well-below-average

Hey, maybe we should actually listen to what scientists have to say.

Nubs
02-17-2010, 11:10 AM
This pattern retards ice growth but at the same time increases precipitation (snowfall) which accumulates over land areas. This makes for greater cold air reservoirs later in the winter. One might conclude this would lead to more cold air outbreaks in the U.S. and Canada, but the data is far too sketchy and recent to draw that conclusion.


So we only have a hypothesis, not fact.

This hypothesis needs to be tested and replicated to become fact.

Until replication can be acheived, no action is warranted. This work only satisfies step 1 of the Scientific Method.

Rockntractor
02-17-2010, 11:15 AM
Predictable, they have to protect their investment and will come up with any data they need to support their presupposed theory.

FlaGator
02-17-2010, 11:22 AM
"Tonight's forecast: dark... continued mostly dark with widely scattered light in the morning."

G. Carlin

Rebel Yell
02-17-2010, 11:22 AM
Well, damn. It took scientists all this work to predict that it may be cold and snowy in the winter?

Swampfox
02-17-2010, 01:49 PM
Well, damn. It took scientists all this work to predict that it may be cold and snowy in the winter?

Not quite. The data is "far too sketchy."

lacarnut
02-18-2010, 07:45 AM
Hot damn. My prediction that global warming is a farce is just as accurate that it will snow late this winter. To think that they pissed all this money away when they could have asked me.

Bongo55
02-18-2010, 09:35 AM
Wow that is the exact same forecast I made about this winter. Damn I should have been one of them there climate expert fellas. I sure could use some of that ol grant money and all i would have to do is spew a giant line of bullshit...... here watch this.

I'm going to go out on a limb here, in front of god and every body and predict that this summer its gonna be sunny and hot, oh yes and there will be rain and maybe even a tornado or two.

Wheres my money.

Rockntractor
02-18-2010, 09:40 AM
Wow that is the exact same forecast I made about this winter. Damn I should have been one of them there climate expert fellas. I sure could use some of that ol grant money and all i would have to do is spew a giant line of bullshit...... here watch this.

I'm going to go out on a limb here, in front of god and every body and predict that this summer its gonna be sunny and hot, oh yes and there will be rain and maybe even a tornado or two.

Wheres my money.

Spare me! You guys read the Farmers Almanac too, you didn't predict it by yourselves.:rolleyes:

Bongo55
02-18-2010, 09:46 AM
Well hell Rock those guys cheat too! Im just after some of that easy money, same as them there climate experts.

The Night Owl
02-18-2010, 11:57 AM
Wow that is the exact same forecast I made about this winter. Damn I should have been one of them there climate expert fellas. I sure could use some of that ol grant money and all i would have to do is spew a giant line of bullshit...... here watch this.

Who said anything about climate?

djones520
02-18-2010, 12:18 PM
It seems that scientists predicted the possibility that this winter would be cold and snowy.

From 2009:



http://www.examiner.com/x-5182-Dallas-Weather-Examiner~y2009m11d4-November-Arctic-sea-ice-Warm-winds-keep-ice-cover-well-below-average

Hey, maybe we should actually listen to what scientists have to say.

Your opening line made me lol.

As for the rest of this...

The most telling thing about this story that you seemed to gloss of TNO is this.


One might conclude this would lead to more cold air outbreaks in the U.S. and Canada, but the data is far too sketchy and recent to draw that conclusion.

If that data is far to sketchy to draw a conclusion for a single winter, then we cannot in any way possible believe that the data they have used to tell us without a doubt that catastrophic "climate change" is going to occur, is good enough to draw a proper conclusion.

Let me tell you something, this guys reasoning is pretty good. It would be a "safe conclusion" to draw in my opinion. But he is 100% right. When forecasting for something so large scale you can't just look at this one factor and make a call.

We had a snow storm here a couple weeks back. For the whole week prior, NWS forecasters were saying 6 inches, 6 inches 6 inches. We got 2. Just 1 element. Just 1, didn't line up properly, and we got a 3rd of what was forecasted.

Now I know we're talking two completely differant scales here. But the premise is still the same. Except when we're talking a Micro Scale event (what I just used an example of) to a macro scale event, things get even harder to forecast. More factors have to be taken in. ONE little monkey wrench could throw the whole thing off. Those forecasting it have to be EXTREMELY meticulous in what they are doing (which we know they aren't when one of the lead forecasters of this thing admits to not even keeping proper track of his data).

When you take in the entire scale of this thing, you truly begin to see just how impossible it is for someone like myself to believe that these people aren't working with an agenda. I forecast weather for a living. I know it's complexities inside and out. And while I forecast on a differant scale, as I said the premise is still the same, and I tell you what. I wouldn't trust these quacks with the lives of the people I've been entrusted with.

hazlnut
02-18-2010, 12:20 PM
"Tonight's forecast: dark... continued mostly dark with widely scattered light in the morning."

G. Carlin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmPFVbK5AWw

Brought to you by Parsons Pest Control...

Parsons will help you get rid of all the termites and waterbugs... and help you smoke the roaches.

Sonnabend
02-18-2010, 02:28 PM
Hey look, it's Logan's Papa! He's back

The Night Owl
02-18-2010, 02:49 PM
If that data is far to sketchy to draw a conclusion for a single winter, then we cannot in any way possible believe that the data they have used to tell us without a doubt that catastrophic "climate change" is going to occur, is good enough to draw a proper conclusion.

Weather is more chaotic than climate. The fact that science can predict weather events should increase our confidence that it can be used to predict climate.

djones520
02-18-2010, 03:56 PM
Weather is more chaotic than climate. The fact that science can predict weather events should increase our confidence that it can be used to predict climate.

Bullshit it is.

Nubs
02-18-2010, 04:58 PM
Weather is more chaotic than climate. The fact that science can predict weather events should increase our confidence that it can be used to predict climate

This is the most scientifically ignorant statements I have seen to date.

The link between weather prediction and climate change has as much validity as a protologist being a great neurologist.

Sonnabend
02-19-2010, 02:34 AM
The fact that science can predict weather events should increase our confidence that it can be used to predict climate.

BWAHAHAHAH!!!!

Weather here was supposed to be pouring rain and cold....it hasnt rained all day and it's 26 degrees. Yesterday was predicted to be 30 degrees and humid it was 24 degrees and no sunlight.

FAIL.

Teetop
02-19-2010, 10:12 PM
cli·mate
   /ˈklaɪmɪt/ Show Spelled[klahy-mit] Show IPA
–noun
1.
the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation,sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.
2.
a region or area characterized by a given climate: to move to a warm climate.
3.
the prevailing attitudes, standards, or environmental conditions of a group, period, or place: a climate of political unrest.


weath·er
   /ˈwɛšər/ Show Spelled[weth-er] Show IPA
–noun
1.
the state of the atmosphere with respect to wind, temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc.
2.
a strong wind or storm or strong winds and storms collectively: We've had some real weather this spring.
3.
a weathercast: The radio announcer will read the weather right after the commercial.
4.
Usually, weathers. changes or vicissitudes in one's lot or fortunes: She remained a good friend in all weathers.
–verb (used with object)
5.
to expose to the weather; dry, season, or otherwise affect by exposure to the air or atmosphere: to weather lumber before marketing it.
6.
to discolor, disintegrate, or affect injuriously, as by the effects of weather: These crumbling stones have been weathered by the centuries.
7.
to bear up against and come safely through (a storm, danger, trouble, etc.): to weather a severe illness.
8.
Nautical. (of a ship, mariner, etc.) to pass or sail to the windward of: to weather a cape.
9.
Architecture. to cause to slope, so as to shed water.
–verb (used without object)
10.
to undergo change, esp. discoloration or disintegration, as the result of exposure to atmospheric conditions.
11.
to endure or resist exposure to the weather: a coat that weathers well.
12.
to go or come safely through a storm, danger, trouble, etc. (usually fol. by through): It was a difficult time for her, but she weathered through beautifully.
—Idiom
13.
under the weather, Informal.
a.
somewhat indisposed; ailing; ill.
b.
suffering from a hangover.
c.
more or less drunk: Many fatal accidents are caused by drivers who are under the weather.

:rolleyes:

Rockntractor
02-19-2010, 10:23 PM
Hey look, it's Logan's Papa! He's back

Logans Papa was online the other day but he didn't post. He showed up on the who is online page.

Sonnabend
02-19-2010, 10:53 PM
Hazlnut = Logan's Papa

djones520
02-19-2010, 10:55 PM
Hazlnut = Logan's Papa

I don't think so.

Rockntractor
02-19-2010, 10:57 PM
I don't think so.

They don't reflect the same personality.

djones520
02-19-2010, 10:58 PM
They don't reflect the same personality.

Not at all. LP was never smart enough to change up that much.

Sonnabend
02-19-2010, 11:56 PM
Not at all. LP was never smart enough to change up that much.

They are.