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Apocalypse
03-07-2010, 09:48 AM
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- The fledgling economic recovery appears to be running out of gas.

The fuel for this or any other recovery has to come from the consumer. Purchases of goods and services by people like you and me account for about 70% of gross domestic product, so without our help a recovery could not last too long.

Guess what? This is exactly what seems to be happening. Retailers report that, for the most part, shoppers are few and far between.

The recent run of economic data is most compelling. Just about all of the reports paint a picture of an economy slowing -- and sharply, at that.

Here are just a few:

*

Both consumer confidence and sentiment have fallen unexpectedly.
*

After-tax personal incomes adjusted for inflation have flattened.
*

Sales of both new and existing homes took a surprising stumble.
*

Orders for most durable goods are down.
*

Manufacturing has slowed.
*

Jobless claims are up.
*

Fourth-quarter GDP growth came largely from a slower pace of inventory liquidation, not from an increase in consumer spending.
*

And, as a matter of fact, consumer spending weakened last quarter.

Understand that the changes in the data above were not insignificant:

*

Consumer confidence fell to a 27-year low.
*

New-home sales fell to record lows, and they are likely to fall even further, since mortgage applications are down to 13-year lows.

*

Existing-home sales are down two months in a row to a seven-month low.
*

First-time claims for unemployment benefits have risen in six of this year's first eight weeks.
*

And new orders excluding transportation fell 0.6%; orders for capital goods fell 2.5%, and capital spending itself was down a thumping 3.5%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-is-running-on-empty-2010-03-02?pagenumber=1

If the Econ. tanks again, Dems are done come Nov.

Constitutionally Speaking
03-07-2010, 10:18 AM
I could have told you this (and did) a year ago. :D



The recovery we had was simply the reaction to the price of oil plummeting - just like the recession we had was set off by the price of oil skyrocketing.

Now the Mortgage crisis, made it much worse - but the match that lit the fuse was oil prices.

Now that the Obama administration is sucking up every penny of capital that SHOULD be used by private business to expand (and create jobs), the chances of a real and lasting recovery are slim.

The current administrations actions are also setting us up for near (if not actual) hyper-inflation.


We are in for some rough times folks.

Starbuck
03-07-2010, 10:24 AM
I'm a 60 - something year old dude, and I tell ya the truth, I am terrified about this economy. I can see where things can get real, real bad. Maybe even real, real, real bad.

And it won't be just the Dems that pay the price; it'll be everyone who had a political position when the doo-doo gets in the fan.

Problem is, there are lots of people who SAY they are conservative, but when the time comes to vote they vote liberal. That's how FDR managed to stay in power and why the depression lasted so long.

Case in point?:
Jim Bunning, who voted against (it was one vote, fer Pete's sake) extending unemployment payments without funding it gets hardballs tossed at him! Tomatoes, too!

We're lucky. Things went our way for a few years, so we got the house and rental properties paid for and I'll probably retire the end of 2010, but if I'm as skeered then as I am now I may keep right on truckin' (Literally).

Rockntractor
03-07-2010, 10:43 AM
We never got out of the last recession no matter what they say. I'm still working but I have no guarantees that it will last. politics aside things could get really bad and devastate a lot of people. I always prepare for the worst and the last few years that is what we are given.
Hope and change, hope for what? We are seeing the change and it's not good
what will it take for us to fully realize this is no normal downturn and we are losing our country?

BadCat
03-07-2010, 11:12 AM
With companies like mine essentially shutting down their Research & Development divisions, it is not a good omen for the future.

SaintLouieWoman
03-07-2010, 11:38 AM
I'm a 60 - something year old dude, and I tell ya the truth, I am terrified about this economy. I can see where things can get real, real bad. Maybe even real, real, real bad.

And it won't be just the Dems that pay the price; it'll be everyone who had a political position when the doo-doo gets in the fan.

Problem is, there are lots of people who SAY they are conservative, but when the time comes to vote they vote liberal. That's how FDR managed to stay in power and why the depression lasted so long.

Case in point?:
Jim Bunning, who voted against (it was one vote, fer Pete's sake) extending unemployment payments without funding it gets hardballs tossed at him! Tomatoes, too!

We're lucky. Things went our way for a few years, so we got the house and rental properties paid for and I'll probably retire the end of 2010, but if I'm as skeered then as I am now I may keep right on truckin' (Literally).

Things are really scary for retirement age folks. A 60 year old wrote a letter to the editor of the lib rag, the St Louis Post-Disptach the other day. He was objecting to the latest idea of our pols. The Fair Tax being proposed here (they're trying to put it on the ballot in November) will eliminate the state 6% income tax.

The problem is that the government never gives anyone an even break. They're proposing additional sales taxes on everything, including the purchase of homes, which have never been taxed before. :eek:

The gentleman objected to paying state income tax (6%) during his entire career, now being taxed when he wants to buy a different house, plus a myriad of other things. It's a nightmare for the regular folks.

Gotta love those pols! :rolleyes:

Constitutionally Speaking
03-07-2010, 12:02 PM
With companies like mine essentially shutting down their Research & Development divisions, it is not a good omen for the future.

There is absolutely no reason for R&D if you are not allowed to profit from that R&D. With the tax code set to once again punish success, this will be the norm.

What is worse is the long term implications for competitiveness - without the R&D, other countries that actually allow profit and encourage entrepreneurship, will eat our lunch economically. They will drive our companies out of business (or as has been the case - our companies will simply leave for better places).


The long term benefits of investment tax credits, capital gains tax cuts and other tax policies that are constantly derided as "for the rich" are huge.

If you look at the jobs created since the 1980's - a very large percentage of them were as a result of the Reagan tax cuts. Either major companies started new divisions to take advantage of them, or start up companies got capital from investors that allowed them to develop a marketable product.

fettpett
03-07-2010, 12:39 PM
Things are really scary for retirement age folks. A 60 year old wrote a letter to the editor of the lib rag, the St Louis Post-Disptach the other day. He was objecting to the latest idea of our pols. The Fair Tax being proposed here (they're trying to put it on the ballot in November) will eliminate the state 6% income tax.

The problem is that the government never gives anyone an even break. They're proposing additional sales taxes on everything, including the purchase of homes, which have never been taxed before. :eek:

The gentleman objected to paying state income tax (6%) during his entire career, now being taxed when he wants to buy a different house, plus a myriad of other things. It's a nightmare for the regular folks.

Gotta love those pols! :rolleyes:

um...must be a bastardized form of the Fair Tax that they are purposing. In the Fair Tax system only NEW constructions are suppose to be taxed at sale, but even then the cost will/should be lower due to the construction being cheaper since the company wont have to pay income taxes (albeit in this case still have to pay Fed taxes, just not state).

Or this is a case of someone with a lot of Misinformation spewing it to the rag of a newspaper

lacarnut
03-07-2010, 01:41 PM
Obama is making things worse. He does not have a clue of how to spur economic growth. Business's will not expand with the uncertainty of increased health care costs, energy taxes (cap and trade), payroll taxes, etc. Nov. 2 can not come quick enough to turn this freight train around.

Starbuck
03-09-2010, 11:51 AM
um...must be a bastardized form of the Fair Tax that they are purposing. In the Fair Tax system only NEW constructions are suppose to be taxed at sale, but even then the cost will/should be lower due to the construction being cheaper since the company wont have to pay income taxes (albeit in this case still have to pay Fed taxes, just not state).

Or this is a case of someone with a lot of Misinformation spewing it to the rag of a newspaper

Yeah, I was a little confused by SLW's post, too. I thought I understood the Fair Tax..........I'm kinda new here - No, I'm actually REAL new - and haven't noticed a Fair Tax discussion going on. Can you guide me?

Also. They're trying to get it on a November ballot??!! Man, I just don't see this good, fair, tax law being passed by this congress. And I sure as hell don't want it defeated and then stained with past defeat. Better, I say, to wait until victory is within sight, and for right now I don't think it is.

noonwitch
03-09-2010, 12:39 PM
Things are really scary for retirement age folks. A 60 year old wrote a letter to the editor of the lib rag, the St Louis Post-Disptach the other day. He was objecting to the latest idea of our pols. The Fair Tax being proposed here (they're trying to put it on the ballot in November) will eliminate the state 6% income tax.

The problem is that the government never gives anyone an even break. They're proposing additional sales taxes on everything, including the purchase of homes, which have never been taxed before. :eek:

The gentleman objected to paying state income tax (6%) during his entire career, now being taxed when he wants to buy a different house, plus a myriad of other things. It's a nightmare for the regular folks.

Gotta love those pols! :rolleyes:


A couple of people at my office, who have 30+ years of service and are in their early 60s, postponed their planned retirements. They were both supposed to retire at the end of March, one is now saying October, and the other is saying it's indefinite.

I'm eligible for retirement in 10 years, when I reach 55. I'll have 33 years of service at that point. I'm hoping I will be able to afford to retire from this job, and take a lower-paying job at that point, because my pension is supposed to be able to supplement whatever I make at the new job. We'll see. I don't want to work here until I reach social security age (68, for me), unless I can get an easier job. I don't want to be in my 60s and still having to go to homes in poor repair, chasing runaway teenagers across town, etc. But I could sit at a phone and take CPS referrals until the day I forget how to work phones.

But my goal is to get an MA in pastoral counseling, and work for a Detroit-based ministry of some sort after I retire from Children's Services, maybe one that emphasizes family therapy. I've found the school, I just need to find a way to pay for it!

lacarnut
03-09-2010, 01:30 PM
A couple of people at my office, who have 30+ years of service and are in their early 60s, postponed their planned retirements. They were both supposed to retire at the end of March, one is now saying October, and the other is saying it's indefinite.

I'm eligible for retirement in 10 years, when I reach 55. I'll have 33 years of service at that point. I'm hoping I will be able to afford to retire from this job, and take a lower-paying job at that point, because my pension is supposed to be able to supplement whatever I make at the new job. We'll see. I don't want to work here until I reach social security age (68, for me), unless I can get an easier job. I don't want to be in my 60s and still having to go to homes in poor repair, chasing runaway teenagers across town, etc. But I could sit at a phone and take CPS referrals until the day I forget how to work phones.

But my goal is to get an MA in pastoral counseling, and work for a Detroit-based ministry of some sort after I retire from Children's Services, maybe one that emphasizes family therapy. I've found the school, I just need to find a way to pay for it!

I am retired and not knowing if I could make it on my retirement and SS was kinda scary. If your house is paid off, have a good car and no debt, you can make it on 70 to 80 per cent retirement income. However, you can not go hog wild buying stuff and traveling unless you have a nice nest egg built up in savings. You just have to sit down and figure up what your expenses including budgeting for unforeseen things like home repairs and car repairs are. Subtract your expenses less your income. With no debt you can live on less than what you are probably making now. Civil service employee in LA can retire at 75% with 30 years of service. Many people think you have millions to retire which is bs. I have more disposable income now than when I was working because I don't go out to eat 5 days a week, save on gas, clothing expense is way down and no debt. Also, your federal and state taxes will go down.

fettpett
03-09-2010, 02:21 PM
Yeah, I was a little confused by SLW's post, too. I thought I understood the Fair Tax..........I'm kinda new here - No, I'm actually REAL new - and haven't noticed a Fair Tax discussion going on. Can you guide me?

Also. They're trying to get it on a November ballot??!! Man, I just don't see this good, fair, tax law being passed by this congress. And I sure as hell don't want it defeated and then stained with past defeat. Better, I say, to wait until victory is within sight, and for right now I don't think it is.

I haven't seen any Fair Tax posts either since i Joined. However what she was talking about was that in Missouri they are trying to get it on the Nov ballot and someone misinformed fool was bitching about it in the paper.

as far as how it's suppose to work is that if you buy something that costs $100, $20 is tax all rolled into the price at the register. No going up to the checkout expecting to pay 100 bucks and end up spending 120 because of sales tax, etc (just generalizing i know there isn't 20% sales tax). How this affects everything is to bring down costs on the back end. with no Income taxes or business taxes, companies wont have to increase prices to compensate for the taxes. thats a general idea of how it works. there is more to the details.