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Gingersnap
06-02-2010, 04:31 PM
Global Cold Wave May Be Looming — This Time, the Science Is Good

La Nina, a solar minimum, and a massive volcanic eruption make a threesome of cold weather events not seen for two hundred years.

May 31, 2010- by Art Horn

Share | In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.

This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble — several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.

On March 20, a volcano erupted on the island of Iceland. The eruption has continued at varying intensity to this day. A volcano erupting on Iceland is not an uncommon event — the island is one of the few spots where the mid-oceanic ridge rears up out of the water, revealing its violent personality. However, this particular volcano is different — it has acted as a reliable predictor of future much more explosive and consequential activity.

This volcano has only erupted three times since the 9th century, the last eruption occurring in the early 1820s. In the past, it has been followed by a much larger eruption by the nearby Katla volcano. Katla has erupted many times on its own, usually every 60 to 80 years, and last blew in 1918. It’s overdue.

Magnus Tomi Gudmundson is a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, and an expert on volcanic ice eruptions:

There is an increasing likelihood we’ll see a Katla eruption in the coming months or a year or two, but there’s no way that’s certain. …

From records we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, Katla has also erupted.

The reason this is ominously significant is that these giant eruptions can change the weather on a planetary scale for years. Mount Laki, another large volcano in Iceland, has a history of producing climate changing eruptions. In the early summer of 1783, Laki erupted, releasing vast rivers of lava. The explosive volcano also ejected a massive amount of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide into the air — the eruption was so violent that the ash and sulfur dioxide were injected into the stratosphere, some 8 miles up. This cloud was then swept around the world by the stratospheric winds. The result was a significant decrease in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface for several years.

That reduction in sunlight brought about bitter cold weather across the northern hemisphere. The winter of 1784 was the coldest ever seen in New England and in Europe. New Jersey was buried under feet of snow. The Mississippi River froze all the way down to New Orleans! Ice was reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Historical records show that similar conditions existed during the following winter.

Other eruptions have caused similar consequences. Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted with cataclysmic force in April of 1815, the largest eruption in over 1,600 years. It also came during a time of very low solar activity, known as the “Dalton Minimum.” The following year was called “The Year Without a Summer.” During early June of 1815, a foot of snow fell on Quebec City. In July and August, lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania. Frost killed crops across New England with a resulting famine. During the brutal winter of 1816/17, the temperature fell to -32 in New York City.

Mount Pinatubo exploded in June of 1991, after four centuries of sleep. The resultant cloud of volcanic ash in the stratosphere pounded the global temperature down a full one degree Fahrenheit by 1993. Record snowfall buried the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England during the winter of 1993/94. Those same records were shattered just two years later in the winter of 1995/96 from the effects of the reduced sunlight.

If Eyjafjallajokull induces an eruption of Katla, that event alone could force global temperatures down for 3 to 5 years. But there is much more at work here.

We have just exited the longest and deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years. During this minimum, the Sun had the greatest number of spotless days (days where there were no sunspots on the face of the sun) since the early 1800s. The solar cycle is usually about 11 years from minimum to minimum — this past cycle 23 lasted 12.7 years. The long length of a solar cycle has been shown to have significant short term climate significance. Australian solar researcher Dr. David Archibald has shown that for every one year increase in the solar cycle length, there is a half-degree Celsius drop in the global temperature in the next cycle.

Using that relationship, we could expect a global temperature drop of one degree Fahrenheit by 2020. That alone would wipe out all of the warming of the last 150 years.

And there is yet a third player in this potential global temperature plunge.

Pajama Media (http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/global-cold-wave-may-be-looming-%e2%80%94-this-time-the-science-is-good/?singlepage=true)

lacarnut
06-02-2010, 04:46 PM
If Al Gore's lips were frozen together, he would still be hawking global warming.

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 05:29 PM
Good. I loath being hot and sweaty . . . . except during sex. ;)

swirling_vortex
06-02-2010, 09:15 PM
So is Obama going to start taxing Iceland for their carbon output? :D

There could also be yet another variable here: The effect of the solar radiation on the El Nino/La Nina cycle.

http://thesop.org/story/science/2009/08/28/solar-maximum-what-you-need-to-know.php

Earth`s response to the solar cycle continues for a year or two following peak sunspot activity. The La Nina-like pattern triggered by the solar maximum tends to evolve into a pattern similar to El Nino as slow-moving currents replace the cool water over the eastern tropical Pacific with warmer water. The ocean response is only about half as strong as with El Nino and the lagged warmth is not as consistent as the La Nina-like pattern that occurs during peaks in the solar cycle.

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 09:27 PM
Good. I loath being hot and sweaty . . . . except during sex. ;)
slow your wrist action down or sit on a block of ice.:rolleyes:

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 09:38 PM
slow your wrist action down or sit on a block of ice.:rolleyes:

why would I want to sit on gingers lap? :D

malloc
06-02-2010, 09:52 PM
Well bring it on! I'll be thanking Eyjafjallajokull and La Nina for my lower electricity bills, which in the AZ summer are quite high.

Seriously? Eyjafjallajokull? It looks like someone just banged on the keyboard and named the volcano with the results.

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 09:55 PM
why would I want to sit on gingers lap? :D

You be thinking Numbas!

patriot45
06-02-2010, 10:12 PM
I told ya if we waited long enuf, globall cooling would be back in fad! I want globall tepid or something inbetween!

My poolwater is 92 today! Basically normal for june in flahdidah!

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 10:22 PM
You be thinking Numbas!

Clearly you know NOTHING about shiksas. :rolleyes:

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 10:34 PM
Clearly you know NOTHING about shiksas. :rolleyes:

You are a shiksas?

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 10:44 PM
You are a shiksas?

I know when you get old your brain slows down so I'll type this nice and slow for ya - a shiksa is a gentile girl that marries a Jewish man. Linda#'s is a Shiksa. Shiksa's are known for NOT being fridged - which is why the Jewish men go for them over Jewish women. :rolleyes: Understand?

patriot45
06-02-2010, 10:46 PM
I know when you get old your brain slows down so I'll type this nice and slow for ya - a shiksa is a gentile girl that marries a Jewish man. Linda#'s is a Shiksa. Shiksa's are known for NOT being fridged - which is why the Jewish men go for them over Jewish women. :rolleyes: Understand?

poli how do you know all this arcane girl shit!?! Are you a shitska?

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 10:48 PM
poli how do you know all this arcane girl shit!?! Are you a shitska?

You want the truth?

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 10:50 PM
poli how do you know all this arcane girl shit!?! Are you a shitska?

There ain't no way Poli has balls, no way!

patriot45
06-02-2010, 10:51 PM
You want the truth?

Spare me! I want to hold you in my mind the way I,ve always imagined you dear! :D

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 10:52 PM
Spare me! I want to hold you in my mind the way I,ve always imagined you dear! :D

:confused::eek:

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 10:58 PM
Spare me! I want to hold you in my mind the way I,ve always imagined you dear! :D

see -

http://attendingtheworld.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/jacknicholson.jpg

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 10:59 PM
There ain't no way Poli has balls, no way!

You want me to post a picture to prove it?? hum??? :D

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 11:01 PM
You want me to post a picture to prove it?? hum??? :D

Micro-photography.

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 11:07 PM
http://www.whatacrappyjob.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/230609074253three_sports_balls.jpgThis is just a sampling . . . . :p

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 11:19 PM
http://www.whatacrappyjob.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/230609074253three_sports_balls.jpgThis is just a sampling . . . . :p

Oh so you only have one.

PoliCon
06-02-2010, 11:20 PM
Oh so you only have one.

one? Clearly there are 3 in that picture. sheesh. :rolleyes: and like I said - just a sampling.

Rockntractor
06-02-2010, 11:22 PM
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/anim_moth-balls.jpg?t=1275535283