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Gingersnap
06-14-2010, 10:55 AM
Error on Himalayan glaciers melts UN climate panel's reputation

By Margaret Munro, Canwest News Service June 10, 2010 Comments (2)

The meltdown of the Himalayan glaciers is not going to be nearly as dire as a Nobel Prize-winning UN climate panel predicted, but it does still threaten the water and food security of 60 million people, says a new report.

Glaciers are often described as the "water towers" of the world, and the UN has warned that the glaciers feeding major Asian river basins and providing water for 1.4 billion people are fast disappearing as a result of climate change. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which co-won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, went so far as to say that the Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 which UN officials now admit was a mistake.

A study published Friday in the journal Science shows the report got more than the 2035 date wrong. It says the 2007 IPCC report also overstated and oversimplified the impact Himalayan glaciers have on Asian rivers.

Glacier meltwater plays only a "modest role" in the several major river systems in Asia, says the study by a Dutch team that took a close look the rivers downstream from the enormous Himalayan snow and ice fields.

"Meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin, but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers," reports the team led by Walter Immerzeel at Utrecht University.

"A huge difference also exists between basins in the extent to which climate change is predicted to affect water availability and food security," the study says. "The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people."

Though the study says global warming will lead to substantial changes in glaciers, it says the "impact will be less than anticipated" by the IPCC's 2007 report. "In that report, it was suggested that the current trends of glacier melt and potential climate change may cause the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, and other rivers to become seasonal rivers in the near future," the Dutch team says. "We argue that these rivers already are seasonal rivers, because the melt and rain seasons generally coincide and a decrease in meltwater is partially compensated for by an increase in precipitation."

The study helps set the record straight, says glaciologist Graham Cogley, at Trent University, in Peterborough, Ont. "They are probably in the right ballpark," he says.

Cogley, like many scientists involved with the IPCC, was dismayed the panel's report contained the unsupported claim that Himalayan glaciers "are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high." UN officials have acknowledged the mistake, which overstated by several hundred years when the glaciers could melt away.

"It was a first-class disaster," says Cogley, says of the mistake. He says some scientists saw the error and tried to alert senior authors, but it was "too late" to get the report corrected.


Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/Error+Himalayan+glaciers+melts+climate+panel+reput ation/3137670/story.html#ixzz0qq6OGecb

PoliCon
06-14-2010, 12:17 PM
ANOTHER blow to the AGW alarmists? tragic. :D :cool:

wilbur
06-14-2010, 01:09 PM
If there is any truth to the articles descriptions of the study, it *confirms* that the majority of the Himalayan glaciers are, in fact, melting, despite what denialists have been claiming. So while the IPCC's findings have been refined (assuming it holds up), the denialist claims have been completely contradicted by yet another paper.

How on earth a denialist can interpret this as a point for their team is well... unbelievable (but hilarious).

SarasotaRepub
06-14-2010, 07:50 PM
Cogley, like many scientists involved with the IPCC, was dismayed the panel's report contained the unsupported claim that Himalayan glaciers "are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high." UN officials have acknowledged the mistake, which overstated by several hundred years when the glaciers could melt away.



You did read that part didn't you Wilbur??? :D

Gingersnap
06-14-2010, 09:24 PM
If there is any truth to the articles descriptions of the study, it *confirms* that the majority of the Himalayan glaciers are, in fact, melting, despite what denialists have been claiming. So while the IPCC's findings have been refined (assuming it holds up), the denialist claims have been completely contradicted by yet another paper.

How on earth a denialist can interpret this as a point for their team is well... unbelievable (but hilarious).

All glaciers in temperate zones melt every year. How would that ever be in dispute? In fact, temperate zone glaciers are the last remnants of glaciers that once covered a substantial amount of land area outside the tropics. Now, some glaciers continue to recover summer melt and stay more or less stable over human lifetimes but they are all shrinking within the big picture.

The issue here isn't melt, it's catastrophizing.

Sonnabend
06-15-2010, 04:57 AM
If there is any truth to the articles descriptions of the study, it *confirms* that the majority of the Himalayan glaciers are, in fact, melting, despite what denialists have been claiming. Again with the belittling epithets , ehi wilbur? Everyone else is stupid except you. :rolleyes:


So while the IPCC's findings have been refined (assuming it holds up), the denialist claims have been completely contradicted by yet another paper.
source (http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=co2realist.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fbusiness.in.com%2Farticle%2Freal-issue%2Fv-k-raina-the-man-who-came-in-from-the-cold%2F10532%2F0&sref=http%3A%2F%2Fco2realist.com%2F2010%2F03%2F02% 2Fretired-geologist-who-debunked-ippc-claims-about-himalayan-glaciers%2F)


On August 4, 2009, Raina submitted his report. It contained 150 years of data collected by the GSI of 25 Indian glaciers. It said that the Himalayan glaciers and glaciers in the rest of the world have retreated and advanced irregularly with no direct link to warming or cooling of the earth’s climate. “This is one of the many issues of climate change science that we do not fully understand,” says Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, a scientist based out of Canada who has been an expert reviewer of the 2007 IPCC report.


On November 9, 2009, Jairam Ramesh released the Himalayan glacier document at a press conference in New Delhi. “There is no conclusive scientific evidence to link global warming with what is happening with the Himalayan glaciers,” he said.
It is the IPCC’s motivation and hand-in-glove nature with policy makers that have come into question. “It is not a scientific body and it has become a political body, dedicated to distorting evidence to support the view that human emissions are dangerous,” says [Vincent] Gray.
Oops.

And here (http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/20073/Himalayan_Glaciers_Are_Growing_and_Confounding_Glo bal_Warming_Alarmists.html)


With the Newcastle University study now validating the Insurance Digest report, National Geographic and others are doing an about-face, reporting the glaciers are growing rather than shrinking ... and blaming global warming for the growth of the glaciers.
"Some glaciers in Pakistan's Upper Indus River Basin appear to be growing, and a new study suggests that global warming is the cause," reported National Geographic News on September 11.

And just as the media had previously reported shrinking glaciers would threaten the water supplies of hundreds of millions of people, they now claim the water supplies of millions of people are threatened by growing glaciers.

In an August 24 article titled "Global warming boost to glaciers," BBC News reported, "the findings are significant, because temperature and rain and snow trends in the area impact on water availability for more than 50 million Pakistanis."
So AGW is causing glaciers to GROW now?


How on earth a denialist can interpret this as a point for their team is well... unbelievable (but hilariousSeeing as you are NOT a climate scientist, and are in fact not an expert in any way whatsoever, we'll treat your claims as we always do...with contempt.

Unless you'd care to tell us just what it is,that makes you an expert?

Hm?

Sonnabend
06-15-2010, 09:15 AM
I find wilbur higlhy amusing...for someone who says he has an open mind, all I see is an open mouth and all I hear is a lot of garbage coming out.

The funny part will be when this is proven to be what it is...a hoax and a lie. Then a certain person will look mighty stupid.

Still wondering where this absolute truth comes from, whereby he is the sole arbiter of AGW and that he alone has the 100% proof we are all wrong.

There's a word for this: arrogance.