Gingersnap
07-08-2010, 01:00 PM
The boomer defection
Voters over 50 are leaning increasingly Republican, according to recent polling. That's a big problem for Democrats.
By Doyle McManus
July 8, 2010
This is turning into a tough election year for Democrats, and most of the reasons are familiar: The economy is stalled, President Obama's popularity is sagging and voters are in an anti-incumbent mood. There's an "enthusiasm gap" too. Republican voters are fired up and ready to vote, while liberals are dispirited.
Now add one more factor: a new generation gap. Voters over the age of 50 are leaning increasingly Republican, according to recent polling —and that includes members of the giant baby boom generation between 50 and 64.
A Pew Research poll released last week found that most voters over 50 say they favor the Republicans in November's congressional election. Voters in their 30's and 40's were evenly split; voters younger than 30 favored the Democrats. That's a big problem for Democrats, in two ways.
First, older voters are a bloc the party doesn't want to lose. They turn out on Election Day more consistently than younger voters — especially in a nonpresidential election, like this year's. About two-thirds of November's voters will be 50 or older.
Second, the defections may reflect a deeper, longer-term trend: The baby boom generation appears to be growing more conservative as it ages.
Democrats already knew they had trouble with voters over the age of 65. Those voters —the true senior citizens —were the only age group that John McCain carried in the presidential election of 2008.
But the baby boomers — the cohort from 50 to 64 — had been in the Democrats' grasp. Boomers voted for Obama in 2008. They voted strongly for Democrats in the congressional election of 2006. (They voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but only by a narrow margin —unlike the more conservative 65+ voters.)
Now, though, many of the boomers who voted for Obama are moving into the Republican column —and behaving (or at least answering survey questions) just like the older cohort.
"There's evidence that those two generations, the early boomers and the seniors, may be converging," said Andrew Kohut, Pew's director. "If it holds up — and we'll see in November — that could be a significant change."
Those "early boomers," born between 1946 and 1960, reached adulthood in the 1960s and '70s — the era of the Vietnam War and the counterculture. According to one prevailing theory of voter behavior, their first political experiences should have stamped them for life. They started out voting mostly for Democrats; they helped elect one of their own, Bill Clinton, to two terms in the White House.
How stupid would you have to be to close your mind to new political information when you were 22 and never examine your positions again?
On a related note: did you guys know that Arlo Guthrie is a registered Reopublican now? :eek:
:D
LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-0708-mcmanus-democrats-20100708-18,0,111287.column)
Voters over 50 are leaning increasingly Republican, according to recent polling. That's a big problem for Democrats.
By Doyle McManus
July 8, 2010
This is turning into a tough election year for Democrats, and most of the reasons are familiar: The economy is stalled, President Obama's popularity is sagging and voters are in an anti-incumbent mood. There's an "enthusiasm gap" too. Republican voters are fired up and ready to vote, while liberals are dispirited.
Now add one more factor: a new generation gap. Voters over the age of 50 are leaning increasingly Republican, according to recent polling —and that includes members of the giant baby boom generation between 50 and 64.
A Pew Research poll released last week found that most voters over 50 say they favor the Republicans in November's congressional election. Voters in their 30's and 40's were evenly split; voters younger than 30 favored the Democrats. That's a big problem for Democrats, in two ways.
First, older voters are a bloc the party doesn't want to lose. They turn out on Election Day more consistently than younger voters — especially in a nonpresidential election, like this year's. About two-thirds of November's voters will be 50 or older.
Second, the defections may reflect a deeper, longer-term trend: The baby boom generation appears to be growing more conservative as it ages.
Democrats already knew they had trouble with voters over the age of 65. Those voters —the true senior citizens —were the only age group that John McCain carried in the presidential election of 2008.
But the baby boomers — the cohort from 50 to 64 — had been in the Democrats' grasp. Boomers voted for Obama in 2008. They voted strongly for Democrats in the congressional election of 2006. (They voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but only by a narrow margin —unlike the more conservative 65+ voters.)
Now, though, many of the boomers who voted for Obama are moving into the Republican column —and behaving (or at least answering survey questions) just like the older cohort.
"There's evidence that those two generations, the early boomers and the seniors, may be converging," said Andrew Kohut, Pew's director. "If it holds up — and we'll see in November — that could be a significant change."
Those "early boomers," born between 1946 and 1960, reached adulthood in the 1960s and '70s — the era of the Vietnam War and the counterculture. According to one prevailing theory of voter behavior, their first political experiences should have stamped them for life. They started out voting mostly for Democrats; they helped elect one of their own, Bill Clinton, to two terms in the White House.
How stupid would you have to be to close your mind to new political information when you were 22 and never examine your positions again?
On a related note: did you guys know that Arlo Guthrie is a registered Reopublican now? :eek:
:D
LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-0708-mcmanus-democrats-20100708-18,0,111287.column)