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djones520
08-09-2010, 05:08 AM
Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.


Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).

Edit: Removed the picture because of it's large size. Click the link to see it.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

We'd have to have record months of August and September to match the official forecasts for the Hurricane Season. I don't know what the agencies have been using to make their forecasts, but they need to start doing some basic VIV (Verify, Initialize, Verify) process, cause it's not working. 4 years running now they've drastically overforcasted the season. I can understand erring on the side of caution, that is how we should be doing our job. But this goes beyond that.

SarasotaRepub
08-09-2010, 07:16 AM
Not to worry, those CAT 5s are just around the corner. :rolleyes::D

djones520
08-09-2010, 07:20 AM
They're gonna have to be. The ACE isn't measured on just number of storms. It's also computed using the strength of the storms as well. So having a lot of storms alone wouldn't get those numbers up. It would have to be a lot of strong storms.

I know people here harp that you can't just look at one year and say "that doesn't make climate". But honestly, the AGW crowd just latched onto 2005 and screamed bloody murder. Now 5 seasons in a row it's been relatively weak and quiet. I'd say that should speak more then anything else.

lacarnut
08-09-2010, 11:13 AM
Not to worry, those CAT 5s are just around the corner. :rolleyes::D

No, no. Let me get my generator installed first.

Gingersnap
08-10-2010, 11:00 PM
They're gonna have to be. The ACE isn't measured on just number of storms. It's also computed using the strength of the storms as well. So having a lot of storms alone wouldn't get those numbers up. It would have to be a lot of strong storms.

I know people here harp that you can't just look at one year and say "that doesn't make climate". But honestly, the AGW crowd just latched onto 2005 and screamed bloody murder. Now 5 seasons in a row it's been relatively weak and quiet. I'd say that should speak more then anything else.

Well, past performance doesn't trump ideologically-driven wishful thinking. :rolleyes:

m00
08-11-2010, 06:40 PM
Global Warming did this.