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View Full Version : New Census Count Out Tuesday Will Determine State Seats in Congress



PoliCon
12-20-2010, 11:45 PM
The first numbers from the 2010 Census, to be released tomorrow, are the state population totals that have been the basis of the proportional division of seats in the House of Representatives since the nation's early days," writes the Pew Research Center's D'Vera Cohn, a census specialist, on her blog. "The number of House seats has been fixed at 435 since 1913, but there have been numerous tweaks in the methodology used to divide them up, and debate continues today."

Cohn sums up some of the key history: "The U.S. Constitution requires that a census be taken every 10 years in order to divide the House of Representatives among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, except for slaves, who, until the late 1800s, were counted as three-fifths of a person, and certain Indians. Under federal law, the Census Bureau must deliver population totals to the president nine months after Census Day, which now means the deadline is Dec. 31. The reapportioned Congress will convene in 2013."

States have an idea what to expect based on analysis of population estimates released earlier by the Census Bureau. According to the Election Data Services' Kimball Brace, "Six states -- Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington -- would each gain a single seat, Florida would gain two seats, and Texas would gain four seats.

"Eight states would lose single seats -- Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, while the states of New York and Ohio now stand to each lose two seats."

In most states -- 43 -- the state legislature draws the congressional and state maps, with the seven other states using a commission system. Disputes over the maps are usually taken to federal courts.

FULL ARTICLE (http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/12/20/new-census-count-out-tuesday-will-determine-state-seats-in-congr/)

PoliCon
12-20-2010, 11:46 PM
I'd love to see them redistrict western PA and put my congressman into a competative district :)

NJCardFan
12-21-2010, 10:49 AM
I'd love to see them redistrict western PA and put my congressman into a competative district :)

If it will give Republicans any advantage at all, they'd gerrymander the fuck out of it to prevent it. I'm curious as to how many potential blue areas will grow and how many red areas will shrink.

Novaheart
12-21-2010, 10:57 AM
If it will give Republicans any advantage at all, they'd gerrymander the fuck out of it to prevent it. I'm curious as to how many potential blue areas will grow and how many red areas will shrink.

Redistricting is a many splendored thing. In Florida, the two people most jealously opposing the Fair Districting amendments were a Republican and a Democrat each of whom had a designer district. Thanks to the new amendments, our new districts are supposed to be as equal and as square-shaped (as opposed to serpentine) as possible.

NJCardFan
12-21-2010, 11:08 AM
Redistricting is a many splendored thing. In Florida, the two people most jealously opposing the Fair Districting amendments were a Republican and a Democrat each of whom had a designer district. Thanks to the new amendments, our new districts are supposed to be as equal and as square-shaped (as opposed to serpentine) as possible.

If you ever want to see the epitome of gerrymandering, look at California.

Novaheart
12-21-2010, 11:21 AM
If you ever want to see the epitome of gerrymandering, look at California.

They look pretty sane except for a couple of obvious ones which appear to be drawn on economic lines in Los Angeles. I see the northern parts of the state pretty much cut up into regional thirds: coastal, inland, eastern edge or coastal, valley, and mountain.

Florida:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/FL23_109.PNG

Novaheart
12-21-2010, 11:26 AM
Florida District 3 has to be seen on a larger map to fully understand how ridiculous and convoluted it is. Jacksonville to Orlando


http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=FL&district=3

NJCardFan
12-21-2010, 12:45 PM
Wow. Look at Illinois: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=IL

Madisonian
12-21-2010, 03:45 PM
John Dingle's district is pretty strung out as well to make sure he gets Ann Arbor to guarantee a good portion of the liberal academia vote.

PoliCon
12-21-2010, 06:25 PM
If it will give Republicans any advantage at all, they'd gerrymander the fuck out of it to prevent it. I'm curious as to how many potential blue areas will grow and how many red areas will shrink.

The GOP has control of the legislatures of a majority of states so . . . I have a feeling most of these redistricting efforts are going to benefit Republicans. PA, for example, will be redistricted by Republicans.

PoliCon
12-21-2010, 06:26 PM
Redistricting is a many splendored thing. In Florida, the two people most jealously opposing the Fair Districting amendments were a Republican and a Democrat each of whom had a designer district. Thanks to the new amendments, our new districts are supposed to be as equal and as square-shaped (as opposed to serpentine) as possible.

But then how are you going to guarantee minority's their seats at the table? :rolleyes:

PoliCon
12-21-2010, 06:28 PM
http://www.redistrictinggame.org/index.php?pg=game