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Gingersnap
03-04-2011, 01:50 PM
UK climatologists seek bubble blowers, cloud watchers
AFP

UK climatologists seek bubble blowers AFP/File A man walks across Parliament Square in central London in 2009. Meteorologists have launched a new campaign

Wed Mar 2, 12:38 pm ET

LONDON (AFP) Meteorologists launched a new campaign Wednesday to get people in England involved in measuring climate change by using a mirror, soap bubbles or simply looking up at the sky.

The Met Office national weather service is asking people to complete a series of simple activities to check the results of climatic computer models.

They include measuring wind speed by blowing bubbles into the air to monitoring the direction of clouds with the aid of a mirror.

Participants are being asked to spot plane vapour trails to measure air temperature and humidity, and to record how cold or hot they feel.

"They're all aspects that are actually quite difficult for us to analyse or measure with our standard monitoring network and so it's all about capturing new data that can complement our existing observation and tell us a little more," Met Office climate scientist Mark McCarthy told AFP.

"Contrails (vapour trails), for example -- we want to look at how well weather and climate models are able to predict where contrails do or don't form and whether they do or don't spread out and form clouds."

When planes fly, the burning of the fuel creates water vapour which mixes with the very cold air at high altitudes and condenses. The air is so cold that ice crystals are formed, leaving behind condensation trails -- contrails.

The trails stop heat from leaving Earth and contribute to global warming. But while computers can predict where they should form due to temperature and humidity, the only real way to check is to look at the sky.

Another activity under the OPAL Climate Survey includes asking people to write down if they are hot or cold to help scientists understand how sensitive individuals are to climate change.

Because human beings, particularly menopausal women, are such terrific estimators of temperature. As someone who actually gathers met data for analysis, I can assure the dotty Brits that randomly generated experiments performed by the public are probably not sufficiently rigorous be included in any serious analysis tool. Heck, we can barely get solid data out of trained professionals who are paid to provide it.

AFP (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110302/wl_uk_afp/britainclimate;_ylt=ArVzT6rAwcWMlK.cY7ZNfgdpl88F)

djones520
03-04-2011, 02:31 PM
Because human beings, particularly menopausal women, are such terrific estimators of temperature. As someone who actually gathers met data for analysis, I can assure the dotty Brits that randomly generated experiments performed by the public are probably not sufficiently rigorous be included in any serious analysis tool. Heck, we can barely get solid data out of trained professionals who are paid to provide it.

AFP (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110302/wl_uk_afp/britainclimate;_ylt=ArVzT6rAwcWMlK.cY7ZNfgdpl88F)

Ok, I am so for getting more observational data, because it really does help refine the models. But this is pure bullshit.

If the UK weather service is adamant about letting such imprecise measurements be entered into the record, their just going fuck the models up. I know they have to know this, anyone with basic knowledge of this stuff would.

The Night Owl
03-04-2011, 02:53 PM
Ok, I am so for getting more observational data, because it really does help refine the models. But this is pure bullshit.

If the UK weather service is adamant about letting such imprecise measurements be entered into the record, their just going fuck the models up. I know they have to know this, anyone with basic knowledge of this stuff would.

The article states that the observer data will be used to check the results of computer models, not as data for computer models.


The Met Office national weather service is asking people to complete a series of simple activities to check the results of climatic computer models.

Apache
03-04-2011, 02:58 PM
The article states that the observer data will be used to check the results of computer models, not as data for computer models.

Computer models are already flawed by the biases of the programmers that wrote them.

Gingersnap
03-04-2011, 03:07 PM
The article states that the observer data will be used to check the results of computer models, not as data for computer models.

It's still worthless. Untrained weather observers are among the very worst of witnesses. Human beings use a wildly distorted memory framework to describe weather and to make weather comparisons. This is why we all like machines more. Asking people to describe how warm or cold they "feel" is just mind-blowing. If it's 75 F outside with a mild breeze, I can tap 10 people and get 10 very different answers to comfort index questions.

There's no verification process here.

djones520
03-04-2011, 04:55 PM
The article states that the observer data will be used to check the results of computer models, not as data for computer models.

And what do you think their going to do with those "results"?

You do not verify with "I feel cold", you verify with "The temp is 22 degrees Celcius", after you've taken that measurement from a calibrated system.

Rockntractor
03-04-2011, 05:00 PM
The article states that the observer data will be used to check the results of computer models, not as data for computer models.

Your consistency never ceases to amaze me.

AmPat
03-04-2011, 05:22 PM
Another activity under the OPAL Climate Survey includes asking people to write down if they are hot or cold to help scientists understand how sensitive individuals are to climate change.
:rolleyes: Come to my house and ask me, I'm hot. Ask my wife, she's cold. Great survey.:rolleyes: