View Full Version : The Real Battle of Bahrain: Saudi Arabia Vs. Iran

03-14-2011, 06:00 PM
As George Friedman points out at Stratfor, there are two levels to what is happening in Bahrain. There are the legitimate complaints of the Shiite minority. And there's Iran's initiative to destabilize the Gulf in hopes of expanding its sphere of influence.

By sending troops to help the Bahrain government "calm" the Shia, Saudi Arabia has essentially checked Iran's initiative, at least for the time being. Friedman's analysis is characteristically sharp:

Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition force into Bahrain to help the government calm the unrest there. This move puts Iran in a difficult position, as Tehran had hoped to use the uprising in Bahrain to promote instability in the Persian Gulf region. Iran could refrain from acting and lose an opportunity to destabilize the region, or it could choose from several other options that do not seem particularly effective.

The Iranians clearly benefit from an uprising in Bahrain. It places the U.S. 5th Fleetís basing in jeopardy, puts the United States in a difficult position and threatens the stability of other Persian Gulf Arab states. For the Iranians, the uprisings in North Africa and their spread to the Arabian Peninsula represent a golden opportunity for pursuing their long-standing interest (going back to the Shah and beyond) of dominating the Gulf.