Gingersnap
04-06-2011, 04:38 PM
Colorado State University hurricane team predicts 16 named Atlantic storms, 9 hurricanes with 5 being major
8:54 AM, Apr. 6, 2011 |
FORT COLLINS - In its 28th year of issuing predictions, the Colorado State University forecast team today predicted an above-average 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The team slightly reduced its early December prediction, but called for an active season based on current La Nina conditions that are expected to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season.
The CSU team now calls for 16 named storms instead of 17 forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to turn into hurricanes with five developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season,” said Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic.”
The hurricane forecast team made this early April forecast based on a new forecast scheme that relies on 29 years of historical data. The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year. The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not
an exact measure.
“We remain - since 1995 - in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” Gray said. “Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”
News (http://www.news-press.com/article/20110406/WEATHER01/110406014/1002/RSS01)
8:54 AM, Apr. 6, 2011 |
FORT COLLINS - In its 28th year of issuing predictions, the Colorado State University forecast team today predicted an above-average 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The team slightly reduced its early December prediction, but called for an active season based on current La Nina conditions that are expected to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season.
The CSU team now calls for 16 named storms instead of 17 forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to turn into hurricanes with five developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season,” said Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic.”
The hurricane forecast team made this early April forecast based on a new forecast scheme that relies on 29 years of historical data. The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year. The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not
an exact measure.
“We remain - since 1995 - in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” Gray said. “Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”
News (http://www.news-press.com/article/20110406/WEATHER01/110406014/1002/RSS01)