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Gingersnap
04-06-2011, 04:38 PM
Colorado State University hurricane team predicts 16 named Atlantic storms, 9 hurricanes with 5 being major
8:54 AM, Apr. 6, 2011 |

FORT COLLINS - In its 28th year of issuing predictions, the Colorado State University forecast team today predicted an above-average 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The team slightly reduced its early December prediction, but called for an active season based on current La Nina conditions that are expected to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season.

The CSU team now calls for 16 named storms instead of 17 forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to turn into hurricanes with five developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season,” said Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic.”

The hurricane forecast team made this early April forecast based on a new forecast scheme that relies on 29 years of historical data. The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year. The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not
an exact measure.

“We remain - since 1995 - in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” Gray said. “Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”

News (http://www.news-press.com/article/20110406/WEATHER01/110406014/1002/RSS01)

Rockntractor
04-06-2011, 07:00 PM
Did they predict what the names will be too?:confused:

fettpett
04-06-2011, 07:26 PM
Did they predict what the names will be too?:confused:

http://geology.com/hurricanes/hurricane-names.shtml

Rockntractor
04-06-2011, 07:37 PM
http://geology.com/hurricanes/hurricane-names.shtml

Racists! There aren't enough Swedish American names there!:mad:

Articulate_Ape
04-06-2011, 07:41 PM
I predict that their predictions will be wrong.

SarasotaRepub
04-06-2011, 07:46 PM
Hurricane Season 2011 starts June 1st. Hopefully nothing bigger than a CAT 1 makes landfall.

But just in case...we are stocking up on canned stuff and bottled water.

Got the generator, having the electric connections done this week.

SLW can't wait for the 1st storm!!! :eek::D

djones520
04-06-2011, 08:07 PM
I think someone has learned their lesson. They've been forecasting "heavy" seasons for the last 6 or so years, with it busting every year.

Gingersnap
04-06-2011, 10:28 PM
Racists! There aren't enough Swedish American names there!:mad:

Speaking as a Swedish-American: we're totally okay with that.

SaintLouieWoman
04-06-2011, 10:34 PM
Hurricane Season 2011 starts June 1st. Hopefully nothing bigger than a CAT 1 makes landfall.

But just in case...we are stocking up on canned stuff and bottled water.

Got the generator, having the electric connections done this week.

SLW can't wait for the 1st storm!!! :eek::D

Not so my dear. SR loves the storms; I don't. But we did stock up on dog food over the weekend with another big sack of food for Xena and Darlene. I've been buying jugs of water when they're on sale and will feel better after the electrician installs the switch kit that SR bought a month or so ago.

Novaheart
04-07-2011, 12:59 AM
Hurricane Season 2011 starts June 1st. Hopefully nothing bigger than a CAT 1 makes landfall.

But just in case...we are stocking up on canned stuff and bottled water.

Got the generator, having the electric connections done this week.

SLW can't wait for the 1st storm!!! :eek::D

I don't know if the stuff we had here in Pinellas last week made it to you guys, but it was pretty much the most we get, plus the storm surge if the tide and wind is right.

Typically, the bad storms turn some travel trailers over, throw some boats around, drop some trees on a house or two, and rip the birdcages off the pool homes. Other than that, losing power is the only concern and in the last 15 years, I have only lost power for more than a few hours once.

The only preparation I do these days is to bleach the tub and fill it, fill the freezer with ice, fill a thermos with coffee, and fill my truck tank with gasoline. Then I go over to my mom's in the marina and put her awnings down and tie down the boats.

lacarnut
04-07-2011, 01:13 AM
Hurricane Season 2011 starts June 1st. Hopefully nothing bigger than a CAT 1 makes landfall.

But just in case...we are stocking up on canned stuff and bottled water.

Got the generator, having the electric connections done this week.

SLW can't wait for the 1st storm!!! :eek::D

It is a happening and an experience she will never forget. As long as you get no property damage, it is all good. Going to the beach when the winds are around 40mph is fun.

SaintLouieWoman
04-07-2011, 08:16 AM
It is a happening and an experience she will never forget. As long as you get no property damage, it is all good. Going to the beach when the winds are around 40mph is fun.

Not fun with 2 huge live oak trees on our property and another on a neighbor's lot that could get our pool cage. We had the trees trimmed heavily last year to take away the limbs directly over the house.

We've had a history in St Louis of too many trees falling on the house. At least the house has hurricane impact glass all around, plus accordion storm shutters that don't take long to secure on the front and side doors. We just had a wind inspector out for the second time to reflect the addition of those storm shutters and the high impact garage door since the first inspection. It's saving us a bundle on our homeowner's insurance.