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txradioguy
04-23-2011, 03:59 PM
Unified Field Theory of 2012, Axiom One: The more the Republicans can make the 2012 election like 2010, the better their chances of winning.

The 2010 Democratic shellacking had the distinction of being the most ideological election in 30 years. It was driven by one central argument in its several parts: the size and reach of government, spending and debt, and, most fundamentally, the nature of the American social contract. 2010 was a referendum on the Obama experiment in hyper-liberalism. It lost resoundingly.

Of course, presidential elections are not arguments in the abstract but arguments with a face. Hence, Axiom Two: The less attention the Republican candidate draws to him/herself, the better the chances of winning. To the extent that 2012 is about ideas, about the case for smaller government, Republicans have a decided edge. If it’s a referendum on the fitness and soundness of the Republican candidate — advantage Obama.
Which suggests Axiom Three: No baggage and no need for flash. Having tried charisma in 2008, the electorate is not looking for a thrill up the leg in 2012. It’s looking for solid, stable, sober, and, above all, not scary.

Given these Euclidean truths, here’s the early line. (Remember: This is analysis, not advocacy.)

LONG SHOTS
Michele Bachmann: Tea Party favorite. Appeals to Palinites. Could do well in Iowa. Hard to see how she makes her way through the rest of the primary thicket. A strong showing in debates and a respectable finish would increase her national stature for 2016. But for now: 20:1 to win the nomination.

Donald Trump: He’s not a candidate, he’s a spectacle. He’s also not a conservative. With a wink and a smile, Muhammad Ali showed that self-promoting obnoxiousness could be charming. Trump shows that it can be merely vulgar. A provocateur and a clown, the Republicans’ Al Sharpton. The Lions have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl.

THE MAJOR CANDIDATES
Mitt Romney: Serious guy. Pre-vetted (2008). Tons of private- and public-sector executive experience. If not for one thing, he’d be the prohibitive front-runner. Unfortunately, the one thing is a big thing: Massachusetts’s Romneycare. For an election in which the main issue is excessive government (see Axiom One), that’s a huge liability. Every sentient Republican has been trying to figure out how to explain it away. I’ve heard no reports of any success. Romney is Secretariat at Belmont, but ridden by Minnesota Fats. He goes out at 5:1.

Newt Gingrich: Smart guy. A fountain of ideas. No, a Vesuvius of ideas. Some brilliance, lots of lava. Architect of a historic Republican victory in 1994. Rocky speakership. Unfortunate personal baggage. 12:1.

Haley Barbour: Successful governor. Experienced Washington hand. Abundant charm. Baggage: Years of lobbying, unforced errors on civil rights, early neo-isolationist deviations. Rarely without a comeback, however. 7:1.

Tim Pawlenty: Formerly, an unassuming, unprepossessing, solid two-term Minnesota governor. Currently, mouse that roars. Uptempo style, middle-of-the-road conservative content. Apparently baggageless. Could be the last man standing. 5:1.

Mitch Daniels: Highly successful governor. Budget guru. Delightful dullness satisfies all axioms (see above). Foreign policy unknown, assuming he has one. Alienated some conservatives with his call for a truce on — i.e., deferring — social issues. If he runs, 6:1.

LIKELY NOT RUNNING
Mike Huckabee: Has a good life — hosting a popular TV show, making money, building his dream house in Florida. He’d be crazy to run. Doesn’t look crazy to me.

Sarah Palin: Same deal. Showed her power in 2010 as kingmaker and opinion shaper. Must know (I think) she has little chance at the nomination and none in the general election. Why risk it, and the inevitable diminishment defeat would bring?

EVEN LESS LIKELY TO RUN — THE 2016 BENCH

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/265428/2012-racing-form-charles-krauthammer

lacarnut
04-23-2011, 04:39 PM
Krawhammer and Rove have nothing but contempt for Trump and Palin. That makes me like them that much more. Eastern Establishment Harvard Graduate Rockefeller RINO's should shut the fuck up. They had their boy wonder McCain run the last time, and he got the dog shit beat out of him. Another so called moderate liberal like Romney who they are sucking wind for will NOT get my vote. We need a Tea Party candidate or one that actually believes in their ideals as our candidate.

fettpett
04-23-2011, 06:58 PM
I don't get Krauthammer, he talks about how Republicans winning if they use the same formula as they used in 2010 for 2012 yet touts Romney, Gingrich and Pawlenty all who are moderates at the very best and liberal at worst. If Romney was such a fucking great candidate why the fuck didn't he win the nomination is 2008?

at lest Daniels and Barbour are new candidates to the race

PoliCon
04-23-2011, 10:22 PM
I don't get Krauthammer, he talks about how Republicans winning if they use the same formula as they used in 2010 for 2012 yet touts Romney, Gingrich and Pawlenty all who are moderates at the very best and liberal at worst. If Romney was such a fucking great candidate why the fuck didn't he win the nomination is 2008?

at lest Daniels and Barbour are new candidates to the race
He's not endorsing them - just pointing out their chances. Read to the end. He's calling for a posse to draft Ryan - and I agree with them.

fettpett
04-23-2011, 10:43 PM
He's not endorsing them - just pointing out their chances. Read to the end. He's calling for a posse to draft Ryan - and I agree with them.

I would love Ryan to run, and there are MANY people out there that want him to. Hell his district includes my hometown and I voted for him in 2002. The problem is that he's already said he's not running. now he could change his mind, it's not likely. Though I could see him being picked as VP candidate for someone that doesn't have a lot of domestic experience.

PoliCon
04-23-2011, 11:25 PM
I would love Ryan to run, and there are MANY people out there that want him to. Hell his district includes my hometown and I voted for him in 2002. The problem is that he's already said he's not running. now he could change his mind, it's not likely. Though I could see him being picked as VP candidate for someone that doesn't have a lot of domestic experience.

He would deliver a classically blue state. :)

fettpett
04-24-2011, 09:10 AM
He would deliver a classically blue state. :)

possibly. Ryan has time though, he could run in 2020 and still be relatively young, he's only 41 now and 2020 he'd only be 51. I can see him either staying in the House and moving into the main leadership position, as Krauthammer said, he's basically the de facto leader of the GOP right now.

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 10:00 AM
possibly. Ryan has time though, he could run in 2020 and still be relatively young, he's only 41 now and 2020 he'd only be 51. I can see him either staying in the House and moving into the main leadership position, as Krauthammer said, he's basically the de facto leader of the GOP right now.

Which is all the more reason for him to be drafted!

fettpett
04-24-2011, 10:12 AM
Which is all the more reason for him to be drafted!

I'm not disagreeing with you one bit, I would love for Ryan to run, just don't see it happening, sadly

Arroyo_Doble
04-24-2011, 11:07 AM
I don't get Krauthammer, he talks about how Republicans winning if they use the same formula as they used in 2010 for 2012 yet touts Romney, Gingrich and Pawlenty all who are moderates at the very best and liberal at worst. If Romney was such a fucking great candidate why the fuck didn't he win the nomination is 2008?

at lest Daniels and Barbour are new candidates to the race

For the reason that those like Chuck refuse to acknowledge publically; Romney is a Mormon.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 11:30 AM
For the reason that those like Chuck refuse to acknowledge publically; Romney is a Mormon.

I don't think that plays that big into the choice, it's policy and his time as Mass Gov that is the problem for him

djones520
04-24-2011, 12:28 PM
I don't think that plays that big into the choice, it's policy and his time as Mass Gov that is the problem for him

Has Romney ever come out and said he was wrong, or something along those lines? I've never really followed him to much, so don't know much about this issue.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 12:45 PM
Has Romney ever come out and said he was wrong, or something along those lines? I've never really followed him to much, so don't know much about this issue.

don't think he's come out and said that his Healthcare crap in MA was the wrong move

NJCardFan
04-24-2011, 12:54 PM
The fact that Herman Cain isn't even in this conversation tells me a lot about the GOP. They don't want a real Reagan conservative. They just want someone who's "willing to reach cross the aisle".

djones520
04-24-2011, 12:58 PM
The fact that Herman Cain isn't even in this conversation tells me a lot about the GOP. They don't want a real Reagan conservative. They just want someone who's "willing to reach cross the aisle".

They want someone that isn't going to scare the middle away. That's why Palin is no where near the top of that list.

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 01:29 PM
They want someone that isn't going to scare the middle away. That's why Palin is no where near the top of that list.

Who is this "they?"

djones520
04-24-2011, 01:31 PM
Who is this "they?"

The people that NJ was referring to.

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 01:37 PM
The people that NJ was referring to.

and they are? :confused:

Clearly Krauthammer wants a conservative. But you have to read the whole article to come to that conclusion.

txradioguy
04-24-2011, 01:46 PM
Who is this "they?"

"They" = Establishment Republicans and RINO's who think to win we need to be DNC lite.

Arroyo_Doble
04-24-2011, 01:48 PM
I don't think that plays that big into the choice, it's policy and his time as Mass Gov that is the problem for him

Doubtful. His problems with the Republican Party voters during the 2008 primaries and caucuses (specifically, Iowa) pre-date the Affordable Care Act and the viceral hatred of Obama.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 01:51 PM
Doubtful. His problems with the Republican Party voters during the 2008 primaries and caucuses (specifically, Iowa) pre-date the Affordable Care Act and the viceral hatred of Obama.

he's always been seen as a RINO, part of the reason he got elected in MA to begin with. GOP doesn't get elected in NE states unless they are centrist/libs. Thats the problem, he's a younger version of McCain.

Arroyo_Doble
04-24-2011, 01:56 PM
he's always been seen as a RINO, part of the reason he got elected in MA to begin with. GOP doesn't get elected in NE states unless they are centrist/libs. Thats the problem, he's a younger version of McCain.

I followed the campaign and I agree with the assessment that he caught flak from the right side of the Republican Party but that is natural. Huck was vilified for actually raising revenue in Arkansas to pay for effective governing of that state (he was an effective governor and Arkansas climbed the education ladder while he was in office). Nothing the Club for Growth people hate more than effective government.

But Romney had to give that Kennedyesque speech about his faith. No one else did and unlike Kennedy, he failed. In my opinion, the speech was craven because he did not eschew the religious test but just asked that Mormons pass it.

I still think his problem with Republican voters is religion. Anything else is window dressing.

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 02:01 PM
I followed the campaign and I agree with the assessment that he caught flak from the right side of the Republican Party but that is natural. Huck was vilified for actually raising revenue in Arkansas to pay for effective governing of that state (he was an effective governor and Arkansas climbed the education ladder while he was in office). Nothing the Club for Growth people hate more than effective government.

But Romney had to give that Kennedyesque speech about his faith. No one else did and unlike Kennedy, he failed. In my opinion, the speech was craven because he did not eschew the religious test but just asked that Mormons pass it.

I still think his problem with Republican voters is religion. Anything else is window dressing.

Huckabee is a populist. Romney is a republican progressive. THAT is why they are unacceptable. Romeny's cult religion is a factor - but could be overlooked if he were an actual conservative. But he's not.

djones520
04-24-2011, 02:03 PM
Huckabee is a populist. Romney is a republican progressive. THAT is why they are unacceptable. Romeny's cult religion is a factor - but could be overlooked if he were an actual conservative. But he's not.

So what is an actual conservative then?

I'm curious at what point a compromise is willing to be made on values for those who don't think their 100%'ers.

Arroyo_Doble
04-24-2011, 02:05 PM
So what is an actual conservative then?

I assume it is a spectrum. But for the true believers, the Fox Limbaugh types that have lost their ability to reason, it is whatever they are told.

Hell, St Reagan still holds the record for the largest tax increase in history.


I'm curious at what point a compromise is willing to be made on values for those who don't think their 100%'ers.

None. That's the point.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 02:19 PM
So what is an actual conservative then?

I'm curious at what point a compromise is willing to be made on values for those who don't think their 100%'ers.

for me it's more about the fiscal side of things, while there are some social issues that are worth looking at, particularly abortion, for the most part the rest of it is a non-factor, including their religious beliefs, hell we've had more Unitarian Presidents than any other demoniation, other than maybe Presbyterian. Hell if the guy was a Muslim and upheld the Constitution and was conservative I wouldn't have a problem with him.

I'm a big supporter of Ryan and he voted for TARP and NCLB

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 02:20 PM
So what is an actual conservative then?

I'm curious at what point a compromise is willing to be made on values for those who don't think their 100%'ers.

Mike Pence. Allen West. Rush Limbaugh. Pat Toomey. Paul Ryan. 5 examples of actual conservatives.

Arroyo_Doble
04-24-2011, 02:21 PM
for me it's more about the fiscal side of things, while there are some social issues that are worth looking at, particularly abortion, for the most part the rest of it is a non-factor, including their religious beliefs, hell we've had more Unitarian Presidents than any other demoniation, other than maybe Presbyterian. Hell if the guy was a Muslim and upheld the Constitution and was conservative I wouldn't have a problem with him.

I'm a big supporter of Ryan and he voted for TARP and NCLB

I thought most presidents were Episcopalian.

djones520
04-24-2011, 02:21 PM
for me it's more about the fiscal side of things, while there are some social issues that are worth looking at, particularly abortion, for the most part the rest of it is a non-factor, including their religious beliefs, hell we've had more Unitarian Presidents than any other demoniation, other than maybe Presbyterian. Hell if the guy was a Muslim and upheld the Constitution and was conservative I wouldn't have a problem with him.

I'm a big supporter of Ryan and he voted for TARP and NCLB

Yet you attacked McCain up above despite him being one of the most fiscally conservative Senators out there.

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 02:21 PM
for me it's more about the fiscal side of things, while there are some social issues that are worth looking at, particularly abortion, for the most part the rest of it is a non-factor, including their religious beliefs, hell we've had more Unitarian Presidents than any other demoniation, other than maybe Presbyterian. Hell if the guy was a Muslim and upheld the Constitution and was conservative I wouldn't have a problem with him.

I'm a big supporter of Ryan and he voted for TARP and NCLB

Modern Unitarians are NOTHING like old school Unitarians. Calvinists have more in common with the RCC than old School Unitarians have with modern Unitarians.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 02:25 PM
I thought most presidents were Episcopalian.

you're right, I misremembered the stats, hell we had a Jehovah Witness President and two Quaker Presidents, and all were seen as good Presidents until Nixon's Watergate scandal.

fettpett
04-24-2011, 02:33 PM
Yet you attacked McCain up above despite him being one of the most fiscally conservative Senators out there.

yeah, as a Senator, but he didn't campaign on it for Pres nor does he make himself known as a fiscal conservative, but as a moderate centrist who damn near ran as Kerry's VP

fettpett
04-24-2011, 02:36 PM
So what is an actual conservative then?

I'm curious at what point a compromise is willing to be made on values for those who don't think their 100%'ers.

ideally I would vote for Cain, Bachmann, or Ryan. barring any of them running, I would back Mitch Daniels, Trump, Gary Johnson

Odysseus
04-24-2011, 03:06 PM
No mention of Bobby Jindal, though. He was in New Hampshire last year and did extremely well on the lecture circuit. Also, he's a child of immigrants who actually loves America, and an ethnic minority, which makes him the anti-Obama, who he went head to head with over the BP spill. This also provides a compelling narrative, as his actions during the spill contrast nicely with Obama's dithering. Could be a contender.

Herman Cain also should have merited a mention, as he does seem to be running, and has a great record, is extremely effective at articulating conservatism and has the advantage of not having been one of the governing class. Ethnicity also trumps Obama.

Finally, although Gingrich has stumbled badly with conservatives recently, he was the standard bearer for the conservative wing of the party for years. He was the one who called Bob Dole the "tax collector for the welfare state." He also pushed through most of the Contract With America and fought Clinton tooth and nail for spending restraint. Unfortunately, he really screwed up by endorsing a number of RINOs and DIABLOs (Democrats In All But Label Only), such as Dede Scozzefava, and the media has had decades to build an arsenal of mud to sling at him. I doubt that he'll run, and if he does, we won't get past New Hampshire, but he used to be one of us, and a good one at that.

CueSi
04-24-2011, 05:57 PM
No mention of Bobby Jindal, though. He was in New Hampshire last year and did extremely well on the lecture circuit. Also, he's a child of immigrants who actually loves America, and an ethnic minority, which makes him the anti-Obama, who he went head to head with over the BP spill. This also provides a compelling narrative, as his actions during the spill contrast nicely with Obama's dithering. Could be a contender.

Herman Cain also should have merited a mention, as he does seem to be running, and has a great record, is extremely effective at articulating conservatism and has the advantage of not having been one of the governing class. Ethnicity also trumps Obama.

Finally, although Gingrich has stumbled badly with conservatives recently, he was the standard bearer for the conservative wing of the party for years. He was the one who called Bob Dole the "tax collector for the welfare state." He also pushed through most of the Contract With America and fought Clinton tooth and nail for spending restraint. Unfortunately, he really screwed up by endorsing a number of RINOs and DIABLOs (Democrats In All But Label Only), such as Dede Scozzefava, and the media has had decades to build an arsenal of mud to sling at him. I doubt that he'll run, and if he does, we won't get past New Hampshire, but he used to be one of us, and a good one at that.


I'd like to see a Jindal/Ryan or Jindal/Daniels ticket... keep West in the wings till he gives us a term and such of work. Hell, even a Jindal/Cain would be awesome. I'd go with MAYBE a T-Paw/Daniels, but . . .not feeling T-Paw totally. The current pope is more charismatic than T-Paw.

~QC

fettpett
04-24-2011, 06:18 PM
I'd like to see a Jindal/Ryan or Jindal/Daniels ticket... keep West in the wings till he gives us a term and such of work. Hell, even a Jindal/Cain would be awesome. I'd go with MAYBE a T-Paw/Daniels, but . . .not feeling T-Paw totally. The current pope is more charismatic than T-Paw.

~QC

not sure about Jindal, his post SOTU speech was very flat, especially when compared to Ryan's. I can't see him at the top of the ticket, I can see him as a VP though

PoliCon
04-24-2011, 08:31 PM
Jindal fails as a communicator. We cannot afford to put up an inarticulate candidate. We need someone who can express our beliefs effectively. :)