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megimoo
09-11-2008, 08:16 AM
Crazy, right?

They said it...
“It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours. ”
........... Harry Truman

A very good friend of mine that will remain nameless that is relatively close to a number of the GOP field organizations on the East Coast, just sent me his analysis of what the Electoral Vote count could be in November, based on what he is hearing out of the McCain campaign. In other words, based on what he privately knows about the campaign's current and likely advertising plans and polling details (both current and historical data), he comes up with the following map, which would give McCain 316 EV votes to Obama's 222. Some direct quotes that I received,... snip
Some direct quotes that I received, off record, of course:

“Michigan isn’t looking good for Obama. Of all of the blue states, this is one where McCain and Palin could actually romp thanks to the depressed local economy. Look for lots of resources headed to the Wolverine state in late September.”

“No worries about Virginia or North Carolina. Obama blew it picking (Joe) Biden as his VP. (Governor of Virginia Tim) Kaine might have worked to bring Va into the blue fold, but alas not now.”

“Pennsylvania looks better and better. This will be closer than at any time for the GOP since 1988 (when George HW Bush was the last Republican to win here). Ohio is very, very good.”

“McCain camp assumes Iowa and New Mexico are lost, but feel good about Colorado and New Hampshire. Besides, with Michigan, losses there would be okay.”

As I told my friend, I’m not sure I believe any of this, but even I know that if Obama cannot secure Michigan and certainly Pennsylvania, it means a third presidential loss in a row for the Dems.


http://gopnation.com/2008/09/10/crazy-right/

PoliCon
09-11-2008, 09:02 AM
interesting - but unlike Lids I'm not willing to declare victory until I see the votes cast.

Odysseus
09-11-2008, 09:32 AM
interesting - but unlike Lids I'm not willing to declare victory until I see the votes cast.

I concur. I think, though, this is a pretty solid analysis, except for Ohio, which should remain in play. Basically, the factors at work are the Tom Bradley effect, where voters tell pollsters that they are going to vote for the black guy and then don't (Bradley ran ahead against Pete Wilson for CA governor in all of the polls right up to election day, then tanked at the voting booths) and the tendency for Republicans to overperform polling by 3-5%, especially if they poll registered voters instead of likely voters. Any state where Obama's poll lead is closer than 3% should be considered tied, and any ties should be considered as leaning towards McCain. Real Clear Politics has a great electoral map and chart of the polling numbers here (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/)and here (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html).

GrumpyOldLady
09-11-2008, 12:10 PM
[SIZE="3"]Crazy, right?
“Michigan isn’t looking good for Obama.

You're kidding!?!?

I figured with the large black and muslim vote population up there, that Obama would easily take the state.

Eyelids
09-11-2008, 12:57 PM
The Bradley Effect may or may not exist, nobody knows.

Obama has a huge advantage with first-time voters (who are rarely polled) that might translate into something that cancels out any Bradley effect or Republican mobilization. I know you guys hate us college students, but we might actually be a huge part of this election.

patriot45
09-11-2008, 01:08 PM
The Bradley Effect may or may not exist, nobody knows.

Obama has a huge advantage with first-time voters (who are rarely polled) that might translate into something that cancels out any Bradley effect or Republican mobilization. I know you guys hate us college students, but we might actually be a huge part of this election.

Well that right there is very scary!! Go back and read the posted article by Thomas Sowell.

link (http://www.conservativeunderground.com/forum505/showthread.php?t=4517)

Constitutionally Speaking
09-11-2008, 05:12 PM
You're kidding!?!?

I figured with the large black and muslim vote population up there, that Obama would easily take the state.


People here have been exposed to the Democrat policies instituted by our Governor who is ALMOST as popular as Bin Laden.

It is even strong enough to overcome the brain-dead union vote and the rest of the factors that usually favor the Democrats.

All McCain needs to do is show how similar Obama's plans are to what Hurricane Jenny unleashed on our State and Zero is toast.

PoliCon
09-11-2008, 05:26 PM
You're kidding!?!?

I figured with the large black and muslim vote population up there, that Obama would easily take the state.
That's just in detroit which is rotting and falling in around their heads. The rest of the state is a different matter.

Lager
09-11-2008, 05:39 PM
The Bradley Effect may or may not exist, nobody knows.

Obama has a huge advantage with first-time voters (who are rarely polled) that might translate into something that cancels out any Bradley effect or Republican mobilization. I know you guys hate us college students, but we might actually be a huge part of this election.

If you can actually get yourselves out of bed early enough to vote that day.:D

Odysseus
09-11-2008, 07:15 PM
The Bradley Effect may or may not exist, nobody knows.

Obama has a huge advantage with first-time voters (who are rarely polled) that might translate into something that cancels out any Bradley effect or Republican mobilization. I know you guys hate us college students, but we might actually be a huge part of this election.
Every Democrat since McGovern has led among college students, and with the exception of Clinton and Carter, every one of them has lost. College kids don't vote in proportionally large numbers, and many of those who do tend to be conservative rather than liberal. My first election was 1980, and I actually worked at the Democratic Convention in NYC (My parents got me the job), where I manned a coat check room with another teenager, who was apalled that I planned to vote for Reagan. When I told her to feel free to cancel my vote with hers, she confessed that she hadn't registered yet. College kids tend to be long on emotion, but short on action.

That's just in detroit which is rotting and falling in around their heads. The rest of the state is a different matter.
Most of Michigan is blue-collar, union voters, exactly the kinds of voters that Obama has been alienating.

If you can actually get yourselves out of bed early enough to vote that day.:D
Or away from the Wii system. When they pass a law allowing voting by video games, college students will become a serious constituency. Until then, I'm not worried.

PoliCon
09-11-2008, 07:40 PM
Most of Michigan is blue-collar, union voters, exactly the kinds of voters that Obama has been alienating.

Right. Not black muslim's though. They are mainly in deerborn and detroit.

justsayin
09-12-2008, 02:34 AM
The real question is will the people of Michigan blame our current financial crisis on the Governor (and the legislature IMO) and her complete incompetence, or will they blame it on Bush.

I hope that Michigan is smart enough to realize that an Obama Presidency could very well be Granholm on a national scale (that thought ought to keep people awake at night), but there are a lot of diehard Dems in this state, and I wouldn’t want to bet on them voting McCain.

Odysseus
09-12-2008, 09:45 AM
Right. Not black muslim's though. They are mainly in deerborn and detroit.
Which were areas that McCain would not have carried anyway. The good news is that frees the campaign to focus resources outside of two concentrations of voters that wouldn't have been receptive to him.

The real question is will the people of Michigan blame our current financial crisis on the Governor (and the legislature IMO) and her complete incompetence, or will they blame it on Bush.

I hope that Michigan is smart enough to realize that an Obama Presidency could very well be Granholm on a national scale (that thought ought to keep people awake at night), but there are a lot of diehard Dems in this state, and I wouldn’t want to bet on them voting McCain.
The media is certainly going to do its best to spin Michigan's economy as a failure at the federal level (without mentioning the Democratic leadership of congress), so the McCain message should play up how Michigan has consistently lagged behind the rest of the country economically and make it clear that it is a statewide issue, not just a federal one. The downside of that it is that it calls into question exactly what can be done at the federal level to fix Michigan's problems, but tying Obama to Granholme can't hurt.

LibraryLady
09-12-2008, 11:29 PM
I concur. I think, though, this is a pretty solid analysis, except for Ohio, which should remain in play. .

This came in today. guess who this site wants to win?!



The University of Cincinnati's highly-rated Ohio Poll has John McCain leading by 4 points in the Buckeye State. There are no particular demographic quirks in these results; Barack Obama is simply a little behind where he needs to be across the board.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Odysseus
09-13-2008, 11:36 AM
This came in today. guess who this site wants to win?!


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Do I get three guesses? :D

What's great about that quote is that it shows that the Obama bin Biden ticket is losing ground across all demographics. His campaign is in meltdown mode. Let's hope that he takes the rest of the Democratic ticket with him.