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View Full Version : Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month



Rockntractor
11-10-2011, 12:49 AM
By Tim Shipman

Last updated at 11:17 PM on 9th November 2011




Foreign Secretary William Hague, speaking today in the House of Commons, London, warned the UN report into Iran's nuclear ambitions could spark a regional arms race

Foreign Secretary William Hague, speaking yesterday in the House of Commons, London, warned the UN report into Iran's nuclear ambitions could spark a regional arms race

Israel will launch military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon as soon as Christmas, intelligence chiefs have warned.

A report by a UN watchdog into Iran’s nuclear ambitions ‘completely discredits’ the Islamic nation’s protestations of innocence, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.

The International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran is developing a nuclear test facility, nuclear detonators and computer modelling for a nuclear warhead that would fit on an existing missile.

Sources say the understanding at the top of the British Government is that Israel will attempt to strike against the nuclear sites ‘sooner rather than later’ – with logistical support from the U.S.

A senior Foreign Office figure has revealed that ministers have been told to expect Israeli military action, adding: ‘We’re expecting something as early as Christmas, or very early in the new year.’

Officials believe President Barack Obama would have to support the Israelis or risk losing vital Jewish-American support in the next presidential election.

In recent weeks, Ministry of Defence sources confirmed that contingency plans have been drawn up in the event that the UK decided to support military action.

But the source ruled out direct British support, adding: ‘Of course we are not in favour of Iran developing a bomb – but do we think they’d use it: no.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059462/Israel-launch-strike-Iran-soon-month-prevent-development-nuclear-weapons.html#ixzz1dH6DLjCt

Why are they deliberately leaking so much information?

Arroyo_Doble
11-10-2011, 09:15 AM
Officials believe President Barack Obama would have to support the Israelis or risk losing vital Jewish-American support in the next presidential election.

Whether or not we support the Israelis should they decide to launch an attack on Iran has nothing to do with a small demographic of our electorate. That is insane. Can you imagine a conversation between the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Obama's Frank Luntz? They would kick him out of the room.

Lanie
11-10-2011, 11:28 AM
Why are they deliberately leaking so much information?

Probably meant to warn people. Unfortunately, it will warn the bad guys as well.

Not their best military tactics IMO.

Odysseus
11-10-2011, 11:49 AM
Officials believe President Barack Obama would have to support the Israelis or risk losing vital Jewish-American support in the next presidential election.

Whether or not we support the Israelis should they decide to launch an attack on Iran has nothing to do with a small demographic of our electorate. That is insane. Can you imagine a conversation between the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Obama's Frank Luntz? They would kick him out of the room.

True, but irrelevant. This administration is solely concerned about internal politics and Obama's reelection chances. Abstract concepts like national security, alliances, shared values and the global jihad aren't on his radar.

BTW, the JCS has to take politics into consideration, too. Nothing happens in a vaccuum.

Molon Labe
11-10-2011, 01:25 PM
Why are they deliberately leaking so much information?

because it's posturing.

Bailey
11-10-2011, 01:26 PM
I'd say let them go for it and we'll play a supporting role, i.e just blast any counter attack against Israel.

Odysseus
11-10-2011, 02:09 PM
because it's posturing.

I highly doubt that. If Israel is planning a strike, they won't tip their hand. They'll only get to do it once.

I am also pretty sure that the Iranians would welcome a limited engagement that doesn't have any longterm effects, but gives them an opportunity to fan nationalist fervor and crack down on dissidents in the run up to the next election, which promises to be just as fraudulent and incendiary as the last one. The only thing that the mullahs are really afraid of is the collapse of their regime before the 12th Imam shows up, either through internal strife or external invasion. Other than that, they know that they can ride out any limited actions that we take.

Molon Labe
11-10-2011, 02:57 PM
I highly doubt that. If Israel is planning a strike, they won't tip their hand. They'll only get to do it once.

I am also pretty sure that the Iranians would welcome a limited engagement that doesn't have any longterm effects, but gives them an opportunity to fan nationalist fervor and crack down on dissidents in the run up to the next election, which promises to be just as fraudulent and incendiary as the last one. The only thing that the mullahs are really afraid of is the collapse of their regime before the 12th Imam shows up, either through internal strife or external invasion. Other than that, they know that they can ride out any limited actions that we take.

I think it would be much worse than that. More than just a little unrest in Iran and the ME. Israel is not stupid, despite the tough talk. Makes no strategic sense to conflagurate the region for the "possibility" of neutralizing the nuclear program. This is not 1980. Can't be done with an airstrike now.

Arroyo_Doble
11-10-2011, 02:59 PM
I think it would be much worse than that. More than just a little unrest in Iran and the ME. Israel is not stupid, despite the tough talk. Makes no strategic sense to conflagurate the region for the "possibility" of neutralizing the nuclear program. This is not 1980. Can't be done with an airstrike now.

It has to be, for those that are rational (and I believe the Israelis are rational), a cost-benefit analysis.

The costs are high. The benefits are retarding (at best) the eventual change in the strategic dynamic of the region when Iran joins the Nuclear Club.

Molon Labe
11-10-2011, 04:42 PM
It has to be, for those that are rational (and I believe the Israelis are rational), a cost-benefit analysis.

The costs are high. The benefits are retarding (at best) the eventual change in the strategic dynamic of the region when Iran joins the Nuclear Club.

I have a problem around here convincing anyone that ALL nation states are "rational actors" in global politics. Never been an example of one that is not. Haven't had the first person show me differently.

The Norks have been one of the absolute bat shit craziest regimes to ever be part of the Nation state system.....and over the past two decades they have acted just as predicted. No nation wants to be nuked into oblivion.

If Israel is that suicidal to enter a mission that they cannot complete as needed, then they have seriously miscalculated.

Odysseus
11-10-2011, 06:13 PM
I have a problem around here convincing anyone that ALL nation states are "rational actors" in global politics. Never been an example of one that is not. Haven't had the first person show me differently.

The Norks have been one of the absolute bat shit craziest regimes to ever be part of the Nation state system.....and over the past two decades they have acted just as predicted. No nation wants to be nuked into oblivion.

If Israel is that suicidal to enter a mission that they cannot complete as needed, then they have seriously miscalculated.

Predictable and rational are two different things. The Iranians see themselves as the leaders of the inevitable caliphate by virtue of their having the one true version of the one true faith, as do the Saudis and every other Muslim with more than two followers and an AK-47. The question is not whether they are rational according to their beliefs or irrational according to ours, the question is whether we understand their motives and actions and act accordingly to protect ourselves and our allies. Iran recently put a plan in motion to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US by detonating a truck bomb in the middle of Washington DC, in front of his favorite restaurant, which just so happened to also be a favorite of a number of senators, congressmembers and the like. This is on top of their arming insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan and providing technical expertise and training. Iranian Pasdaran officers have been captured by US forces in Iraq, where they were teaching al Sadr's militia to kill Americans. We may not be at war with Iran, but Iran is certainly at war with us. Given the means, Iran will nuke Israel and us. Israel just happens to be closer. A sub on a suicide mission could detonate a nuke in Haifa and cover most of northern Israel in radioactive steam. It's not a question of if they will do this, but when. Israel has no choice but to act to prevent it. When that happens, we will have to decide what we are going to do or not do.