Bloomberg Iowa Caucus Poll: Four Way Statistical Dead Heat

[Molon Labe]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html



"Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are in a dead heat as the top choices for Iowans likely to attend the Jan. 3 Republican presidential caucuses.

Cain 20%
Paul at 19%
Romney 18%
Gingrich 17 %

Rick Perry 7%
Michelle Bachman 5%
Rick Santorum 3%
Jon Huntsman 1%

among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away."

2008 caucus Results from last poll before the election. They were VERY accurate

Huckabee: 32%
Romney: 26
McCain: 13
Thompson: 9
Paul: 9

What Actually Happened (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html)

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 9%



Economic issues such as jobs, taxes and government spending are driving voter sentiment, rather than such social issues as abortion and gay marriage, the poll finds. Only about a quarter of likely caucus-goers say social or constitutional issues are more important to them, compared with 71 percent who say fiscal concerns.

[Arroyo_Doble]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html




2008 caucus Results from last poll before the election. They were VERY accurate

Huckabee: 32%
Romney: 26
McCain: 13
Thompson: 9
Paul: 9

What Actually Happened (http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html)

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 9%



What surprises me the most is Congressman Paul seems to have broken out of his 10% ceiling.

[Molon Labe]

What surprises me the most is Congressman Paul seems to have broken out of his 10% ceiling.

What this is showing is that people don't think that Romney is the guy in Iowa. That Gingrich is surging because of not only a media bump, but people aren't sold on any of the top tier guys. Cain and Paul represent the other choice from the establishment.

But the big thing about this is that it also points out the glaring fact we learned in 08 when we nominated McCain....that only a real conservative can win against Obama. Anything less is going to be a defeat.

[NJCardFan]

As of the 13th, Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html), the polls look like this(RCP takes all polls and averages them out):

Romney-22%
Cain-21.2%
Newt-17.6%
Perry-9.9%
Paul-7.3%

[Molon Labe]

As of the 13th, Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html), the polls look like this(RCP takes all polls and averages them out):

Romney-22%
Cain-21.2%
Newt-17.6%
Perry-9.9%
Paul-7.3%


Like the Iowa Straw poll earlier this year.....it is conducted to show organization skills, which Bachman clearly had at that time. I believe Bloomberg's Selzer polls were very close on that too.

In my opinion one should be looking for accuracy in polling not taking possible lesser polling stats to find an average

The Selzer Polls in Iowa tend to be the most accurate....as 08' clearly showed. It's a dead heat between 4 people right now.

Bloomberg is also doing one's in NH and SC too. Romney is running away with NH.

Besides...National polls mean next to nothing after you get a bump from the pirmary.

[Molon Labe]

Final poll comes out tonight 8pm central

Was the most accurate one last go around......

What will it say?


http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/des-moines-register-iowa-poll-results-on-republican-presidential-race-to-be-released-at-7-p-m-today/

[Molon Labe]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/