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NJCardFan
11-18-2011, 01:45 PM
Can someone answer me something? Why are the highest crime rates in areas that are the bluest politically? NY, L.A., SF, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis all very blue cities and all very high in crime. Why is that?

Arroyo_Doble
11-18-2011, 01:53 PM
Can someone answer me something? Why are the highest crime rates in areas that are the bluest politically? NY, L.A., SF, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis all very blue cities and all very high in crime. Why is that?

Are there any not-blue cities? Other than Salt Lake? I thought urban areas tended to be more liberal than suburban and rural areas (just a general trend not applicable to every city or rural community).

Witmaster
11-18-2011, 02:12 PM
Can someone answer me something? Why are the highest crime rates in areas that are the bluest politically? NY, L.A., SF, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis all very blue cities and all very high in crime. Why is that?
Because long ago Liberals completely divorced themselves from the belief that civil liberties require civil responsibility.

noonwitch
11-18-2011, 03:09 PM
I can't speak to other cities, I only know mine.


Detroit's problems are about more than just politics. The biggest problem in Detroit over the past 50 years is the decline of the american auto industry. Being a one-industry town is bad business.

The 1967 riots scared people out of the city. Most people now don't know the history that led to those events-the history of segregation in Detroit, the fact that the DPD was a mostly white police force in a city with a growing black population, and the horrific act of police brutality that proceeded the riots. After the fires burned out, and the national guard took control of the city, it was obvious that the Detroit Police were no longer able to maintain the peace. From 1968-1975, most of the white people left the city. If they didn't leave before Coleman Young took office as mayor in 1974, they left after that. My paternal grandmother moved out of the city in 1971, after my aunt got married and left home, because her neighborhood was definitely not safe for an older woman living alone. My maternal grandparents stayed until my grandpa retired in 1978, but their neighborhood got really bad in the last 5 years or so that they lived there.

70s crime rates drove a lot of people out of the city. The black middle class thought that they would be able to start their own businesses to fill the void left behind by the white flight. That was overly optimistic. They stuck around until the 90s, though, out of a commitment to the city. I moved out with them in 2001, when Dennis Archer chose not to run for another term as mayor. (I moved to Detroit from Grand Rapids in 1987, living first in an exurb for a couple of years, then moving into the city).

Then came Kwame-even though the city had been hit very hard in the 70s and 80s, there was a bit of a comeback in the 90s under Dennis Archer. Archer took some advice from Rudy and cracked down on crime. Most of the time I lived in the city was during his administration. Clinton gave cities federal money for police work, and Archer put it to good use, and also took a lot of heat for alleged police brutality (imo-they were just good marksmen) . Even if that money had still kept flowing during the Bush presidency, Kwame would have stolen it. He's about to be indicted in federal court for racketeering charges. There was still some hope for recovery before he took office, though.

With the population dropping, the retail stores started leaving the city. It was a slow progression, that really started in 1984 after Dayton's bought JL Hudsons, and closed the downtown flagship store. Today, there is not a single chain grocery store in the city limits. No Kroger, no WalMart, no Meijer (although that might change). The public transportation system sucks to the point that Mayor Bing announced he's privatizing it.




There are a lot more reasons why Detroit failed, but most of the reasons stem from the problems within the auto industry and the history of past racial segregation and misunderstandings.

Tipsycatlover
11-18-2011, 03:58 PM
I can't speak to other cities, I only know mine.


Detroit's problems are about more than just politics. The biggest problem in Detroit over the past 50 years is the decline of the american auto industry. Being a one-industry town is bad business.

The 1967 riots scared people out of the city. Most people now don't know the history that led to those events-the history of segregation in Detroit, the fact that the DPD was a mostly white police force in a city with a growing black population, and the horrific act of police brutality that proceeded the riots. After the fires burned out, and the national guard took control of the city, it was obvious that the Detroit Police were no longer able to maintain the peace. From 1968-1975, most of the white people left the city. If they didn't leave before Coleman Young took office as mayor in 1974, they left after that. My paternal grandmother moved out of the city in 1971, after my aunt got married and left home, because her neighborhood was definitely not safe for an older woman living alone. My maternal grandparents stayed until my grandpa retired in 1978, but their neighborhood got really bad in the last 5 years or so that they lived there.

70s crime rates drove a lot of people out of the city. The black middle class thought that they would be able to start their own businesses to fill the void left behind by the white flight. That was overly optimistic. They stuck around until the 90s, though, out of a commitment to the city. I moved out with them in 2001, when Dennis Archer chose not to run for another term as mayor. (I moved to Detroit from Grand Rapids in 1987, living first in an exurb for a couple of years, then moving into the city).

Then came Kwame-even though the city had been hit very hard in the 70s and 80s, there was a bit of a comeback in the 90s under Dennis Archer. Archer took some advice from Rudy and cracked down on crime. Most of the time I lived in the city was during his administration. Clinton gave cities federal money for police work, and Archer put it to good use, and also took a lot of heat for alleged police brutality (imo-they were just good marksmen) . Even if that money had still kept flowing during the Bush presidency, Kwame would have stolen it. He's about to be indicted in federal court for racketeering charges. There was still some hope for recovery before he took office, though.

With the population dropping, the retail stores started leaving the city. It was a slow progression, that really started in 1984 after Dayton's bought JL Hudsons, and closed the downtown flagship store. Today, there is not a single chain grocery store in the city limits. No Kroger, no WalMart, no Meijer (although that might change). The public transportation system sucks to the point that Mayor Bing announced he's privatizing it.




There are a lot more reasons why Detroit failed, but most of the reasons stem from the problems within the auto industry and the history of past racial segregation and misunderstandings.

From your narrative, Detroits probems have nothing to do with the demise of the auto industry or past racial segregation. I am judging just from what you wrote. The main causes of degredation is white flight and black leadership. The stores didn't leave merely because the population was dropping. Detroit is a big city, to imagine that there is not sufficient population to support ONE grocery store is ridiculous. Grocery stores support individual neighborhoods. I suspect the reason why there is not one major grocery store isn't because of a reduced population, but the kind of population that remains. The same complaint was made in Los Angeles after the 1992 riots. Not one major grocery store in the entirety of South Central. After the riot, Vons built a major superstore to serve the area. It closed in six months. It was robbed multiple times a day and the employees were constantly at risk of being shot. The empty hulk is still there.

That is most likely why stores have been closing and leaving.

noonwitch
11-18-2011, 04:58 PM
From your narrative, Detroits probems have nothing to do with the demise of the auto industry or past racial segregation. I am judging just from what you wrote. The main causes of degredation is white flight and black leadership. The stores didn't leave merely because the population was dropping. Detroit is a big city, to imagine that there is not sufficient population to support ONE grocery store is ridiculous. Grocery stores support individual neighborhoods. I suspect the reason why there is not one major grocery store isn't because of a reduced population, but the kind of population that remains. The same complaint was made in Los Angeles after the 1992 riots. Not one major grocery store in the entirety of South Central. After the riot, Vons built a major superstore to serve the area. It closed in six months. It was robbed multiple times a day and the employees were constantly at risk of being shot. The empty hulk is still there.

That is most likely why stores have been closing and leaving.


I agree that the white flight is the largest problem. But the white flight started happening before the black leadership took over, when Coleman Young became mayor in January of 1974. Most of the white people fled before that point. When I moved into the city in 1989, the demographics were roughly 75 percent black and 25 percent white. Today, it is closer to 85/15, plus the overall population has dropped from just over a million residents to around 750,000.

When the white people left, they took the businesses and jobs with them (and the revenue base). The racial segregation history comes to play at that point. Detroit banks would not give business loans to people without business experience. Most blacks in the early 70s did not have business experience (they worked at the auto companies, like so many other people around here) , so the businesses either became vacant buildings or arab-owned liquor stores (because the arabs came here and paid cash for the businesses).

I read an interesting book recently about cities and why some succeed and some don't. Detroit was the the author's ultimate example of a city that failed-his theory was that the downward spiral was underway long before the 1967 riots, due to the fact that the city had built it's entire future around the auto industry, which didn't really have much competition until the 70s, when the japanese companies started selling cheaper cars.

It's really easy to blame black people or democrats for what happened to Detroit, but it goes much deeper than that. But one of the main reasons for the white flight was the ending of legal segregation. White Detroiters didn't want black neighbors. I heard all about it from my grandparents when I was a kid, and they didn't use the term "black people" to describe their new neighbors.

I wish Dave Bing had become mayor in 2001, when Archer stepped down. We could have avoided the Kwame situation, which compounded the problems with corruption and pussifying the DPD. Bing is a good guy, and an honest one who stepped into a mess that no one else wanted.

Odysseus
11-18-2011, 06:09 PM
Can someone answer me something? Why are the highest crime rates in areas that are the bluest politically? NY, L.A., SF, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis all very blue cities and all very high in crime. Why is that?


Are there any not-blue cities? Other than Salt Lake? I thought urban areas tended to be more liberal than suburban and rural areas (just a general trend not applicable to every city or rural community).

To answer the first question, you have to answer the second, which takes a bit of research. First, we have to determine the highest crime cities. This is complicated by the fact that Chicago, one of the highest crime cities, doesn't report its overall crime stats, but the feds do track homicides, so using murder rates as the yardstick, the 74 most violent cities in America, in order, are:


1 New Orleans
2 St. Louis
3 Baltimore
4 Detroit
5 Newark
6 Oakland
7 Washington
8 Kansas City
9 Buffalo
10 Cincinnati
11 Philadelphia
12 Cleveland
13 Pittsburgh
14 Atlanta
15 Stockton
16 Milwaukee
17 Miami
18 Chicago
19 Tulsa
20 Memphis
21 Columbus
22 Houston
23 Boston
24 Dallas
25 Bakersfield
26 Mobile
27 Jacksonville
28 Tucson
29 Minneapolis
30 Oklahoma City
31 Fresno
32 Nashville
33 Fort Wayne
34 Fort Worth
35 Louisville Metro
36 Santa Ana
37 Tampa
38 Greensboro
39 Albuquerque
40 Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department
41 Charlotte-Mecklenburg
42 Los Angeles
43 Phoenix
44 Toledo
45 Omaha
46 Aurora
47 Sacramento
48 Long Beach
49 New York
50 Lexington
51 San Francisco
52 St. Paul
53 San Antonio
54 Corpus Christi
55 Colorado Springs
56 Austin
57 Anchorage
58 Wichita
59 Arlington
60 Portland
61 Denver
62 Raleigh
63 Mesa
64 Virginia Beach
65 Seattle
66 Riverside
67 Henderson
68 San Diego
69 Anaheim
70 San Jose
71 Honolulu
72 Plano
73 Lincoln
74 El Paso
The most liberal and conservative cities (as per http://www.buyyourhomeguide.com/most_liberal_conservative.html) are:


Top 25 Most Liberal Cities:
1 Detroit Michigan
2 Gary Indiana
3 Berkeley California
4 Washington, D.C. Dist. of Columbia
5 Oakland California
6 Inglewood California
7 Newark New Jersey
8 Cambridge Massachusetts
9 San Francisco California
10 Flint Michigan
11 Cleveland Ohio
12 Hartford Connecticut
13 Paterson New Jersey
14 Baltimore Maryland
15 New Haven Connecticut
16 Seattle Washington
17 Chicago Illinois
18 Philadelphia Pennsylvania
19 Birmingham Alabama
20 St. Louis Missouri
21 New York New York
22 Providence Rhode Island
23 Minneapolis Minnesota
24 Boston Massachusetts
25 Buffalo New York

Top 25 Most Conservative Cities:
1 Provo Utah
2 Lubbock Texas
3 Abilene Texas
4 Hialeah Florida
5 Plano Texas
6 Colorado Springs Colorado
7 Gilbert Arizona
8 Bakersfield California
9 Lafayette Louisiana
10 Orange California
11 Escondido California
12 Allentown Pennsylvania
13 Mesa Arizona
14 Arlington Texas
15 Peoria Arizona
16 Cape Coral Florida
17 Garden Grove California
18 Simi Valley California
19 Corona California
20 Clearwater Florida
21 West Valley City Utah
22 Oklahoma City Oklahoma
23 Overland Park Kansas
24 Anchorage Alaska
25 Huntington Beach California
Correlating the two sets of data, we find that 15 of the 25 most liberal cities are on this list:

1 Detroit Michigan
4 Washington, D.C. Dist. of Columbia
5 Oakland California
7 Newark New Jersey
9 San Francisco California
11 Cleveland Ohio
14 Baltimore Maryland
16 Seattle Washington
17 Chicago Illinois
18 Philadelphia Pennsylvania
20 St. Louis Missouri
21 New York New York
23 Minneapolis Minnesota
24 Boston Massachusetts
25 Buffalo New York

Of the 25 most conservative cities, only seven are on the crime list:
5 Plano Texas
6 Colorado Springs Colorado
8 Bakersfield California
13 Mesa Arizona
14 Arlington Texas
22 Oklahoma City Oklahoma
24 Anchorage Alaska

More interesting, though, is that the first conservative city on the crime list, Oklahoma City, is at #30, behind 12 of the most liberal cities. So, it's a safe bet to say that a liberal city is twice as likely as a conservative city to be on the list of the cities with the highest murder rates, and that the murder rates in those liberal cities tend to be far higher.

In addition, I'll point out that NYC, under Giuliani, saw a 60% drop in the murder rate, which peaked under Dinkins. If other cities that went from Democratic to Republican governance showed similar trends, then the OP's premise would be a slam dunk. That, however, is more research than I'm up for right now. Regardless, the argument that blue metro areas have higher crime rates than red ones is a fairly safe one.

As to why, there are a lot of factors. Which cities have the highest capture and conviction rates for violent offenders? Which cities have the highest ratios of police to population? Which cities have the highest percentages of illegal immigrants? Which cities are in states that undermine local law enforcement (hint: 13 out of 74 are in California)? Which cities have the highest percentage of people who are in multi-generational welfare households? Which cities have the highest percentages of single parents? Crunch those numbers and you'll see that the trends that favor crime and social disorder are most exacerbated in the cities with liberal leadership.