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LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 09:06 AM
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, September 14, 2008 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)



The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47% .

McCain voters are now more excited about the election than Obama’s. Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 52.3 % chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 46.3 %. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 53% (see trends). McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.

still a while till the "real poll" but continued good news for McCain/Palin.

ReaganForRus
09-14-2008, 10:20 AM
where is blinky on this?

Speedy
09-14-2008, 10:25 AM
where is blinky on this?


Where HAS Eyelids been the last few days? Who's got Blinky Suicide watch this week?

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 10:27 AM
He is looking for his sources proving Zer-0 is pulling up in every poll.


It's called a convention bounce, and really if you look at the daily tracking polls Obama has been gaining over the past few days.

megimoo
09-14-2008, 11:47 AM
Where HAS Eyelids been the last few days? Who's got Blinky Suicide watch this week?Having his little pea brain washed by the DNC and Re_ Filled with the latest !

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 11:52 AM
He mentioned on Friday he was taking a trip. I guess he went home for mom to wash his Che shirt and jeans.

linda22003
09-14-2008, 01:08 PM
Where HAS Eyelids been the last few days? Who's got Blinky Suicide watch this week?


Wait, what is the Suicide Watch for? To prevent, or encourage?

Zathras
09-14-2008, 01:32 PM
He mentioned on Friday he was taking a trip. I guess he went home for mom to wash his Che shirt and jeans.

Why would he have to do that since his mom's washer and dryer is in his bedroom? :D

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 02:05 PM
has anyone noticed that blinky has been conspicuously absent since McCain took the lead in the polls?

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 03:33 PM
I've been busy this weekend, I was almost trapped in Chicago because there has been almost non-stop rain. I'm safely in Carbondale now.

50-47 is within the margin of error, I've said this 100's and 100's of time but that isn't a margin.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 04:00 PM
I've been busy this weekend, I was almost trapped in Chicago because there has been almost non-stop rain. I'm safely in Carbondale now.

50-47 is within the margin of error, I've said this 100's and 100's of time but that isn't a margin.where? give me a hundred or so links.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 04:03 PM
where? give me a hundred or so links.

You can search my recent posts in my profile, LibraryLady constantly fails to understand the idea of a "margin of error" so many of he argument revolve around 1 or 2 point margins that mean nothing.

ReaganForRus
09-14-2008, 04:06 PM
eyelids, glad you're safe, but we're in a world of hurt down here in Houston, and McCain has erased BHO lead in Minnesota. When traditional liberal states like Minnesota start trending Republican, you know that the people really want "change"..........and not the change that BHO wants.:D

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 04:09 PM
You can search my recent posts in my profile, LibraryLady constantly fails to understand the idea of a "margin of error" so many of he argument revolve around 1 or 2 point margins that mean nothing.
no no. You made the claim - back it up.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 04:10 PM
no no. You made the claim - back it up.

Oh... you want proof of the margin of error?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/1d/Marginoferror95.PNG/400px-Marginoferror95.PNG

A rather comprehensive graphic.

Speedy
09-14-2008, 04:20 PM
You can search my recent posts in my profile, LibraryLady constantly fails to understand the idea of a "margin of error" so many of he argument revolve around 1 or 2 point margins that mean nothing.

Even taking into effect the margin of error, which way is the trend heading?

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 04:37 PM
Even taking into effect the margin of error, which way is the trend heading?

ITS TIED. ITS TIED.

arajfghdsfajkghadkgjsdalghad;slhgas

I dont see how you guys can be this dumb, it boggles my mind.

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 04:40 PM
If it's tied, WHY THE HELL, WHEN THE DEMS WERE SUPPOSED TO WALK AWAY WITH IT!!!???

and which way is the momentum going. You announced that every poll showed Zer-0 gaining and then never came back to prove it.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 04:41 PM
If it's tied, WHY THE HELL, WHEN THE DEMS WERE SUPPOSED TO WALK AWAY WITH IT!!!???

and which way is the momentum going. You announced that every poll showed Zer-0 gaining and then never came back to prove it.

The tracking polls have showed a narrowing race, hell Gallup makes it retard proof with a fucking chart:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080914DailyUpdateGraph1_l9n6b2.gif

Notice that since the McCain convention the gap between the two has gotten smaller, and since McCain was leading that would mean Obama was gaining.

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 04:49 PM
And every electoral vote poll shows McCain's lead growing.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 04:51 PM
Oh... you want proof of the margin of error?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/1d/Marginoferror95.PNG/400px-Marginoferror95.PNG

A rather comprehensive graphic. DUMBASS - answer the question asked not the one you want to make up.


You maide the claim:

I've said this 100's and 100's of time but that isn't a margin. - now back it up. prove your claim or retract it.

MrsSmith
09-14-2008, 04:53 PM
The tracking polls have showed a narrowing race, hell Gallup makes it retard proof with a fucking chart:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080914DailyUpdateGraph1_l9n6b2.gif

Notice that since the McCain convention the gap between the two has gotten smaller, and since McCain was leading that would mean Obama was gaining.


Weren't you claiming victory for Obama just about that Aug. 31 mark? It was a sure thing, or something like that? :D:D

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 05:19 PM
eyelids, glad you're safe, but we're in a world of hurt down here in Houston, and McCain has erased BHO lead in Minnesota. When traditional liberal states like Minnesota start trending Republican, you know that the people really want "change"..........and not the change that BHO wants.:D

Minnesota Poll: Obama, McCain are dead even in state (http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD 3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs)


With 51 days before Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied with 45 percent support, raising the stakes in the campaign.
Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.

Amazing.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 05:54 PM
DUMBASS - answer the question asked not the one you want to make up.


You maide the claim:
- now back it up. prove your claim or retract it.

You've gotta be kidding me...

Constitutionally Speaking
09-14-2008, 06:09 PM
Oh... you want proof of the margin of error?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/1d/Marginoferror95.PNG/400px-Marginoferror95.PNG

A rather comprehensive graphic.

Rasmussen, I think, uses 3,000 samples. That is a less than 2% moe.

gator
09-14-2008, 06:19 PM
Check this one out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3048/2854579294_993da86ae8_o.png


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SMw_TmTMkRI/AAAAAAAACXU/oNlU_5biRVk/S1600-R/0913_super.PNG

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 06:22 PM
I'd tell blinky to look at intrade but I doubt he could take it!!

Speedy
09-14-2008, 06:29 PM
Check this one out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3048/2854579294_993da86ae8_o.png


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SMw_TmTMkRI/AAAAAAAACXU/oNlU_5biRVk/S1600-R/0913_super.PNG

Margin of Error! Margin of Error!

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y236/speed_addiction/Fun/2008-09-14_172652.jpg

linda22003
09-14-2008, 06:30 PM
Marge Inoverra - doesn't she do statistical surveys for the Car Talk guys? I think she works with Paul Murky, of Murky Research.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:01 PM
Rasmussen, I think, uses 3,000 samples. That is a less than 2% moe.

It's 1000 per day on a 3 day rolling average. So it's not really 3,000 people.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:02 PM
Check this one out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3048/2854579294_993da86ae8_o.png


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SMw_TmTMkRI/AAAAAAAACXU/oNlU_5biRVk/S1600-R/0913_super.PNG

I love 538, by far my favorite political website. The guy even admitted his model was way fucked up for convention bumps though.

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 07:06 PM
I watch 538, 270to win, real clear politics, election projection (membership) and electoral vote.com

Today's Polls, 9/13


Although we think that John McCain may still be in the midst of some sort of convention bump, so far there has been no real letting up of his improved performance in state-level polling:

that's from 538

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:08 PM
The negative ad blitz by Obama might take a few days to show up, thats an important thing to take into account.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:09 PM
You've gotta be kidding me...nope. dead serious. You made a claim - prove it or retract it.

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 07:09 PM
but, but, but mr. Sweetness wasn't going to do that? what about the ISSUES???

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:12 PM
The negative ad blitz by Obama might take a few days to show up, thats an important thing to take into account.negative ads blitz from *gasp* NObama??? I thought he was the one who was gonna change the face of politics???:rolleyes:

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:18 PM
McCain has been so sunny lately, I dont know what provoked Obama to do such a thing :rolleyes:

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:19 PM
McCain has been so sunny lately, I dont know what provoked Obama to do such a thing :rolleyes:
Use what ever excuse you like - he said was the one who said he was going to change the face of politics.

LibraryLady
09-14-2008, 07:21 PM
Use what ever excuse you like - he said was the one who said he was going to change the face of politics.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c12/dtharman/Obama/Obama_Dizzy.jpg

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:21 PM
Use what ever excuse you like - he said was the one who said he was going to change the face of politics.

And he went a hell of long time without really going all out like he's about to do. I blame the American people for being such idiots and responding positively to McCain's mud.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:33 PM
And he went a hell of long time without really going all out like he's about to do. I blame the American people for being such idiots and responding positively to McCain's mud.rotfl! If you cannot stand up for what you believe in - don't blame others for your lack of character.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:35 PM
rotfl! If you cannot stand up for what you believe in - don't blame others for your lack of character.

His job is to win, and if he has to resort to negative ads he has to do what he has to do.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:38 PM
His job is to win, and if he has to resort to negative ads he has to do what he has to do.DUMBASS - a candidates job is to represent the people who are backing him. If he can win in the process - good for him. But winning is not his job - it's his GOAL.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:39 PM
DUMBASS - a candidates job is to represent the people who are backing him. If he can win in the process - good for him. But winning is not his job - it's his GOAL.

Well done, and for Obama his backing consists of hte American people. Now, when McCain runs negative ads and the American people respond positively towards McCain it's Obama's job to shift his strategy to better accommodate what the people want.

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:41 PM
Well done, and for Obama his backing consists of hte American people. Now, when McCain runs negative ads and the American people respond positively towards McCain it's Obama's job to shift his strategy to better accommodate what the people want.Bullshit. His backing consists of the far left, anti-Americans, societal parasites, elitists, and various other idiots. These moonbats and finge elements are not the American people.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:43 PM
Bullshit. His backing consists of the far left, anti-Americans, societal parasites, elitists, and various other idiots. These moonbats and finge elements are not the American people.

And here comes the name-calling, you can't have a decent political discussion when you play by the rules of a 5th grade playground.

Sonnabend
09-14-2008, 07:47 PM
Well done, and for Obama his backing consists of hte American people

And nice, respectable people like HAMAS. And the President of Iran.:rolleyes:


Now, when McCain runs negative ads and the American people respond positively towards McCain it's Obama's job to shift his strategy to better accommodate what the people want

http://www.nicedoggie.net/2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/obama-sunking-ship-300x255.jpg

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:51 PM
How much money has Obama recieved from Iran and Hamas? Oh and how many of their members plan to vote for Obama?

PoliCon
09-14-2008, 07:55 PM
And here comes the name-calling, you can't have a decent political discussion when you play by the rules of a 5th grade playground.quit lying and we can have an adult conversation. But if you are going to sit here and lie like a 8 year old caught with his hand in the cookie jar - don't play shocked when people stoop to your level.

Eyelids
09-14-2008, 07:56 PM
quit lying and we can have an adult conversation. But if you are going to sit here and lie like a 8 year old caught with his hand in the cookie jar - don't play shocked when people stoop to your level.

How the hell am I lying right now? WHAT ARE YOU EVEN TALKING ABOUT?!

PoliCon
09-15-2008, 08:52 PM
How the hell am I lying right now? WHAT ARE YOU EVEN TALKING ABOUT?!
For starters:

Well done, and for Obama his backing consists of hte American people. Additionally there is your claim that you pointed out the margin of error hundreds and hundreds of times - which you have yet to back up - shall I go one?