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View Full Version : Palin bounce erodes Obama's electoral map advantage



Perilloux
09-15-2008, 05:15 PM
FIRST THOUGHTS: THE MAP 50 DAYS OUT (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/15/1398167.aspx)

Posted: Monday, September 15, 2008 9:23 AM
by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The map 50 days out: The Palin bounce has erased Obama's lead in the national polls, and it has now cut into his electoral-vote advantage, according to NBC’s latest map. Obama holds a 233-227 edge here, down from his 228-200 advantage from last week. The biggest changes: We moved Florida -- with its 27 electoral votes -- from Toss-up to Lean McCain, and New Mexico from Toss-up to Lean Obama. We also shifted Oregon and Washington from Likely Obama to Lean Obama, as well as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota from Lean McCain to Likely McCain. The good news for McCain is that the map looks better for him than at any point so far in this race, and many of those red states that looked like opportunities for Obama (AK, GA, IN) look to be longer shots for him. The bad news for McCain is that given the wave his campaign has been riding from the Palin bounce, is this as good as it gets? If he isn’t leading in some states now, he might not ever lead in them. Bottom line: You'll know the map is starting to move in one direction or the other if either Pennsylvania or Florida moves back into Toss-up before Election Day.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the Sarah Palin affect on the NBC electoral vote map. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26718819#26718819)

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM OR, PA, WA (61 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

Eyelids
09-15-2008, 05:21 PM
[B][COLOR="Navy"
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM OR, PA, WA (61 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)[/COLOR]

That would seem to favor Obama.

LibraryLady
09-15-2008, 05:23 PM
You didn't watch the video, did you?

Eyelids
09-15-2008, 05:26 PM
No. .......

megimoo
09-15-2008, 05:35 PM
No. .......
You Dumb Sheet !

Odysseus
09-15-2008, 06:03 PM
No. .......

Let's put this in perspective, then. Obama is losing ground. McCain is gaining it. The current RCP average puts McCain ahead in the national polls and the electoral college numbers (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/) 227-207, with 104 toss-ups. That's the inverse of where the polling was before the conventions, but what's really amazing is that if you look at the historical tracking, you see that Obama began to tank before the Republican convention but after the Democratic convention. In other words, he had a negative bounce. People tuned in to his act and didn't like what they saw. But, even more telling is the closure of the generic congressional ballot. Democrats were ahead by as much as 20% at one point, but that's down to 4% and the momentum is against them. By the election, you could see Republicans making modest gains in the house and senate.

Get ready for eight more years in the wilderness.

GrumpyOldLady
09-15-2008, 06:14 PM
That came from NBC, EH?:

Musta' killed 'em to have to admit it!

:D

PoliCon
09-15-2008, 10:02 PM
People are not buying the myth that is the m0ssiah anymore.

jeskibuff
09-15-2008, 10:38 PM
what's really amazing is that if you look at the historical tracking, you see that Obama began to tank before the Republican convention but after the Democratic conventionand, as the video mentions, Obama is spending much more for advertising than McCain is. So basically, McCain is gaining ground on Obama even though he has one hand tied behind his back!

Keep spending, Obama! You're going to need everything you've got to cover for your doubletalk and your inability to be coherent without the aid of a teleprompter!

PoliCon
09-15-2008, 11:06 PM
and, as the video mentions, Obama is spending much more for advertising than McCain is. I hope that he spends every cent of George Soros's money in his election bid.

Eyelids
09-15-2008, 11:09 PM
and, as the video mentions, Obama is spending much more for advertising than McCain is.
Obama is competitive in more states.

PoliCon
09-15-2008, 11:16 PM
Your m0ssiah should be running away with this race. He's not. The deck has been stacked and restacked in NObama's favor and yet he just can't seem to pull it off. Lets be honest. If not for super deligates - Hillary would be the nominee.

Odysseus
09-16-2008, 10:50 AM
Obama is competitive in more states.

Actually, no. Here's the map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/).

And this page (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html) shows the trends. Note that Obama's lead has been contracting steadily.

LibraryLady
09-16-2008, 10:59 AM
five thirty eigh (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/palins-favorability-numbers-eroding.html#comments)t Mccain 287.7 Obama 250.3

electoral vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) McCain 257 Obama 247

Karl Rove (http://patriotroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/rove-electoral-map-9-14-08.png)
McCain 227 obama 226