View Full Version : Obama Winning VA?

09-15-2008, 07:21 PM

Nothing really surprising here except Obama having a real lead in Virginia. The tracking polls have flatted out inside the margin of error pretty universally and the 538 guys are saying their model is starting to turn back to Obama. Maybe it's turning again?

09-15-2008, 07:30 PM
Rassmussen has VA tied at 48-48.

09-15-2008, 07:31 PM
And Pennsylvania at 47-47

09-15-2008, 07:48 PM
Virginia is not that surprising really. Obama's base of support is young college-educated white professionals, and there are loads of them in Northern Virginia. It's yuppie central. Arlington County went for Kerry by 68% in 2004 and I won't be surprised if Obama breaks 70% come November. Ditto for Alexandria. And around 1/4 of all Virginians live in the DC metro area. And VA has had 2 Dem governors in a row and is about to have 2 Democratic senators.

VA is rapidly changing.

09-15-2008, 07:56 PM
FYI: SurveyUSA poll released today shows Obama ahead by 4 in Virginia.

Obama 50% McCain 46%

I'm not saying VA will go for Obama in the end--I still think Mccain will manage a narrow victory here-- I'm just pointing out that all these polls showing Obama either tied or ahead in the Commonwealth are not outliers, and defintely show a wider trend in VA's changing demographics.

Constitutionally Speaking
09-15-2008, 09:34 PM
Virginia also has a lot of government workers - who vote overwhelmingly for Dems.

Virginia will be very close.