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megimoo
09-15-2008, 11:40 PM
McCain Holds 48% to 45% Lead in Ohio

A new Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain holding on to a 48% to 45% lead over Barack Obama in Ohio, down from a seven-point spread a week ago. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of McCain voters say they are certain to vote for him and will not change their mind. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Obama voters say the same. The is the ninth straight Ohio poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year and McCain has held at least a slight advantage in all nine. However, the shifting margins are indicative of how volatile the race is in the state...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

Eyelids
09-15-2008, 11:43 PM
I think I should get some chords together and write a song called Margin of Error.

megimoo
09-15-2008, 11:47 PM
I think I should get some chords together and write a song called Margin of Error.He's melting, He's melting !

LibraryLady
09-16-2008, 12:13 PM
Yet Another Poll Puts McCain Up In Ohio (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/yet_another_poll_puts_mccain_u.php)
By Eric Kleefeld - September 16, 2008, 11:36AM


A seventh consecutive poll has John McCain with a lead in the key swing state of Ohio, a consistent finding that can only lead one to believe he really is ahead here.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): McCain 48%, Obama 44%, with a 3% margin of error.

The key grab from the pollster's analysis: "There is a troubling trend for Barack Obama of undecided white voters in many of the swing states moving into John McCain's camp. He's going to be in trouble if he can't get that turning back in the other direction."

PoliCon
09-16-2008, 08:41 PM
anyone else notice that blinky has stopped posting polls here all of a sudden predicting our doom? I wonder why that is?? http://i67.photobucket.com/albums/h302/brmax/smilies/other-horsepooping.gif

Eyelids
09-16-2008, 09:23 PM
I posted one yesterday. You guys just chose to ignore it because it had Obama winning VA.

PoliCon
09-16-2008, 11:04 PM
I posted one yesterday. You guys just chose to ignore it because it had Obama winning VA.Which poll would that be? FOX News/Rasmussen Has them tied at 48% even - while CNN/Time has McCain at 50% with obama at 46%. So which poll has your m0ssiah winning Virginia?

LibraryLady
09-17-2008, 12:36 AM
Survey USA. Seems to be an outlier. 538 still shows va to be Mccains. See bottom of chart

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c12/dtharman/Obama/538.jpg

Eyelids
09-17-2008, 03:04 AM
Survey USA. Seems to be an outlier. 538 still shows va to be Mccains. See bottom of chart

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c12/dtharman/Obama/538.jpg

All but that one CNN poll have the race tied since August 12th (and the CNN poll was taken right in the middle of McCain's bounce), Obama polling ahead outside the margin of error is to me a good indicator.

538's projection is a 2.2% margin, far too close to really call and I'm pretty sure Nate would agree with me.

Oh and in related 538 news, they are seeing Palin's charm wear off quite noticeably.

LibraryLady
09-17-2008, 06:59 AM
Oh and in related 538 news, they are seeing Palin's charm wear off quite noticeably.

Did you notice that the evidence they used was the daily kos poll?


Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

As voters have taken a second look at Sarah Palin in venues like the Charlie Gibson interview and even Tina Fey's SNL sketch, they may not be as enamored of what they're seeing.

The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.

Eyelids
09-17-2008, 01:33 PM
They've looked at the poll and haven't found anything really wrong with it, I trust a FOXNEWS poll...


And I know that some of you don't like or don't trust this poll -- for reasons that I think are a little silly -- but there is a similar decline in her numbers in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Her favorability numbers in yesterday's Hotline poll -- today's isn't out yet -- were a 48-36, or a +12. But a week ago, on September 8, she had been at a 48-24, a +24.

LibraryLady
09-17-2008, 01:41 PM
The debates are going to bury Obama. Polling will mean more then.

Goldwater
09-17-2008, 02:17 PM
The debates are going to bury Obama. Polling will mean more then.

Obama does not debate well, and McCain actually seems like he's not a robot in debates.

PoliCon
09-17-2008, 06:43 PM
too bad we can't bypass the sycophantic NObama kneel and bob media and let real people pose questions and have a REAL debate rather than stump speeches disguised as debate.