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Rockntractor
09-26-2012, 08:49 PM
By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.

http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

LukeEDay
09-26-2012, 08:51 PM
Like I said, they are basing their assumptions on the voter turn out for obama from 2008. It is no where near that this year.

Rockntractor
09-26-2012, 08:57 PM
yep, I see Romney winning!
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/dro1216l.jpg

LukeEDay
09-26-2012, 09:24 PM
I know Romney will win, and I hope it is a total blowout. That would be pants ... I will be sure to watch MSNBC that night..

SaintLouieWoman
09-26-2012, 11:25 PM
I know Romney will win, and I hope it is a total blowout. That would be pants ... I will be sure to watch MSNBC that night..
If that happens, I'd love to watch Letterman the next night, ditto The View and watch Joyce Behar pout and say nasty remarks.

Hawkgirl
09-27-2012, 12:38 AM
My intuition says Romney will be our next President. My intuition has NEVER failed me. I only wish I listened to it more often.

Yes, I know it's not scientific but I'm right.

Elspeth
09-27-2012, 02:24 AM
I have mistrusted the polling. The only reliable polls are within the margin of error. Anything giving Obama a lead outside that margin has sampling problems.

Bailey
09-27-2012, 07:07 AM
I really hope he is right but do you guys know that his track record for picking winners is really bad?

marv
09-27-2012, 08:15 AM
...another pollster...

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/index.cfm

...and observations from
Examiner (http://www.examiner.com/article/november-election-results-will-be-a-real-shocker-for-liberal-democrats)
...and...
Dean2112 (http://www.dean2112.com/dean/)

LukeEDay
09-27-2012, 10:16 PM
If that happens, I'd love to watch Letterman the next night, ditto The View and watch Joyce Behar pout and say nasty remarks.

Behar has a show on Current now. I refuse to watch it. But, yes, I will be watching those as well. I can't wait to see the onslaught of one liners. The main one will be that everyone who voted against obama is a racist.

Starbuck
09-27-2012, 11:55 PM
This whole dang election has just got me terrified. I'm talking scared shitless. I have no idea how I'm going to get any sleep at all the days before the election; I just pray to God that I'm not so out of it that I can't remember my name when I go vote.:smile-new:

I swore off voting, once. I stood in line to vote for Nixon, and then got called for jury duty because I had registered. Whole deal sort of pissed me off.
So I quit for some years.

Then John Kerry ran.

That woke me up, and I surprised everyone by getting interested and even involved. I voted and voted hard.

There won't come a time in the future that I won't vote. Not again.

linda22003
09-28-2012, 11:29 AM
You stopped voting so you wouldn't get called for jury duty? That abdicates citizenship on so many levels it's not even funny.

FlaGator
09-28-2012, 12:24 PM
You stopped voting so you wouldn't get called for jury duty? That abdicates citizenship on so many levels it's not even funny.

My Dad did the same thing. Nixon was the only person he ever voted for.

I like jury duty. I try to give out the death penalty even in civil cases.

Odysseus
09-28-2012, 05:30 PM
You stopped voting so you wouldn't get called for jury duty? That abdicates citizenship on so many levels it's not even funny.

Besides, you can always show up wearing an NRA T-shirt. Defense attorneys will excuse you right off, unless it's a Second Amendment case, in which case the prosecution will cut you loose.


My Dad did the same thing. Nixon was the only person he ever voted for.

I like jury duty. I try to give out the death penalty even in civil cases.

Remind me not to park next to a hydrant when you're on a jury. :evil-grin:

LukeEDay
09-28-2012, 05:33 PM
Besides, you can always show up wearing an NRA T-shirt. Defense attorneys will excuse you right off, unless it's a Second Amendment case, in which case the prosecution will cut you loose.


The last time I was on jury duty, a guy showed up with a shirt like that. The judge made him change it. :rotfl:

Starbuck
09-28-2012, 11:15 PM
You stopped voting so you wouldn't get called for jury duty? That abdicates citizenship on so many levels it's not even funny.

Nah. I liked jury duty. Got to serve in the US District Court in San Diego. Sent some bad guys and girls off to jail, too.
I quit voting because I was duped so badly by Nixon. For years I felt that no one could be trusted, didn't matter who was President, and my vote didn't count.
I've changed my mind.

And I don't see not voting as an abdication of citizenship. Jeez, you sound like an ACORN recruiter. I feel those who are not interested or don't know anything should stay home. In my world, you would need a license to vote and would have to pass a test.