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Molon Labe
10-16-2012, 11:44 AM
I'd argue, if you want to track who is most likely to win, then take a look at intrade. They do a remakable job of doing getting pretty accurate results and they did fantastic during the Primaries.

The theory: People don't like to lose their money and make decsions based on how to get more. And there is more going on here than opinion polling. Think of it as the invisible hand.

Today it's Obama 290 to Romney 248. But it can change.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Oh and It was VERY accurate in 2008.


Actual

365 to 173

http://electoralmap.net/2010/2008.png


Intrade
364 -174

http://electoralmap.net/11.4.png

SarasotaRepub
10-16-2012, 08:13 PM
Just seeing the dreaded Red X Box Molon...

Odysseus
10-17-2012, 12:22 AM
And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

Molon Labe
10-17-2012, 07:30 AM
And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.

txradioguy
10-17-2012, 07:57 AM
And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQS99m16fFEv4XiFKAO-g9kCOpxn0OQVQvA0pUKt7qm8aTtOc-6dF1mAj0l

Odysseus
10-17-2012, 08:22 AM
Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.

Intrade and Rasmussen/Gallup have one thing in common, which is that they are putting their money where their mouths are, while the MSM polls do not. Rasmussen and Gallup are paid for their accuracy, and they cannot permit their credibility to be compromised by partisanship. The MSM polls reflect their biases, as well as their skewed sampling results (a similar thing happened in 1980, when the pollsters applied 1976 turnout models, putting Carter 8 points ahead prior to the eleciton). However, all of these polls feed into the RealClearPolitics average, which has become the standard for most observers, with the result being that the media polls skew the overall estimates. This is significant, because of how it impacts the Intrade results. Intrade is basically a betting pool, but it is no more accurate than the assumptions of the bettors. If the bettors are going on the same assumptions as the media, because the polls are skewed, then they are going to reflect those skewed assumptions in the oddsmaking. Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?

Molon Labe
10-17-2012, 09:35 AM
Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?

It can be conducted up to the day of the election. The polling is constant though with trades being made based on any number of events. It's not going to just "shift" one way or the other tremendously as it's based on more gradual trends.


Ant that's what's unique about this.... is that so much more things are taken into account because people have $$$ to lose or win based on the outcome.

For instance it was 290 for Obama before the debate last night and is now 281. Seems Romney did a little better last night. A slight change in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. However Romney lost ground in Virginia.

I think people should pay attention to it and discount it at their own peril.

AmPat
10-17-2012, 09:42 AM
Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.I just took this poll. Here are the results:

If the election were held today, who would you vote for? Barack Obama - Joe Biden
191,471(26%)

Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan
522,084(72%)

Other
5,206(0%)




Are you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan is his VP? More Likely
174,168(24%)

Less Likely
62,935(8%)

Doesn't change my opinion of Romney
472,547(66%)






Which party should run congress? Republican
517,575(73%)

Democratic
190,161(26%)


0(0%)






To close the federal deficit, Congress and the President should Raise taxes
57,131(8%)

Cut spending
193,472(27%)

Cut taxes and cut spending
431,859(60%)

Raise taxes and increase spending
26,624(3%)






Do you favor significant cuts to Medicare? Yes, cut Medicare significantly
66,608(9%)

No, don't cut Medicare significantly
637,536(90%)






Read more on Newsmax.com: SurveyResults (http://www.newsmax.com/Surveys/Results/id/48#ixzz29Z43OTzm)
Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now! (http://polls.newsmax.com/repeal/?PROMO_CODE=B683-1)

Molon Labe
10-17-2012, 09:47 AM
I just took this poll. Here are the results:



I'm sure a poll over at Huffington Post would look similar for Obama.

Molon Labe
10-22-2012, 11:40 AM
ROMNEY 261 OBAMA 277

Closing the gap today.

wonder what is happening?

Arroyo_Doble
10-22-2012, 01:24 PM
ROMNEY 261 OBAMA 277

Closing the gap today.

wonder what is happening?

Virginia moved to Romney.

Molon Labe
10-22-2012, 01:33 PM
Virginia moved to Romney.

He's been here since September. Doesn't leave. It figures he would be scoring big points.

Arroyo_Doble
10-22-2012, 01:46 PM
He's been here since September. Doesn't leave. It figures he would be scoring big points.

I believe it accounts for the 13 Electoral vote change from your OP. It could also be a combination of Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4) with Virginia being in the Romney column already. Both states seemed to have moved away from the president recently.

Molon Labe
10-24-2012, 10:53 AM
Romney pulls ahead.



ROMNEY 275 ✓ OBAMA 263

Arroyo_Doble
10-24-2012, 11:19 AM
Romney pulls ahead.



ROMNEY 275 ✓ OBAMA 263

He's already lost that. Ohio back in the tossup category.

It will probably be easier to just follow Ohio on Intrade.

Rockntractor
10-24-2012, 11:33 AM
I'm calling this election for Mittens. libtards and Ronbots can go home and smoke their medical marijuana now.

Rockntractor
10-24-2012, 02:58 PM
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”. Yogi Bera

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 10:01 AM
ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303 ✓

Folks...things not looking good for Romney. I'm gonna go out on a limb and make a final prediction.

I'm thinking Obama wins 284 to 254.

The sad part is I think he takes Virginia. That was unheard of before 08'.

Bailey
11-01-2012, 10:09 AM
Please these polls dont mean shit, Romney is going to win

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 10:13 AM
Please these polls dont mean shit, Romney is going to win


They were pretty accurate in 08'. Where do you think the win is coming from? Ohio? Pa?
Are you looking at facts and trends or is it just because you want it so bad that it's going to happen?
I've said it before....If I'm wrong I'll admit it and I'll gladly be relieved. But it's not trending that way.

Bailey
11-01-2012, 10:14 AM
They were pretty accurate in 08'. Where do you think the win is coming from? Ohio? Pa?
Are you looking at facts and trends or is it just because you want it so bad that it's going to happen?
I've said it before....If I'm wrong I'll admit it and I'll gladly be relieved. But it's not trending that way.

Well you make sure you don't vote for Romney I am sure that will help him win.

Rockntractor
11-01-2012, 10:17 AM
They were pretty accurate in 08'. Where do you think the win is coming from? Ohio? Pa?
Are you looking at facts and trends or is it just because you want it so bad that it's going to happen?
I've said it before....If I'm wrong I'll admit it and I'll gladly be relieved. But it's not trending that way.

Was the poll dead wrong on the 24th of Oct?

Bailey
11-01-2012, 10:24 AM
Was the poll dead wrong on the 24th of Oct?

aren't some of these pols, weighted in democrat favor?

Rockntractor
11-01-2012, 10:29 AM
aren't some of these pols, weighted in democrat favor?
They were using a 2008 demographic that presumed too high of a ratio of dems to repubs.

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 10:47 AM
Well you make sure you don't vote for Romney I am sure that will help him win.

I have never voted for a liberal. Not starting now.

NJCardFan
11-01-2012, 11:29 AM
I have never voted for a liberal. Not starting now.

Then if Obama is re-elected you are forbidden to complain.

Bailey
11-01-2012, 11:37 AM
I have never voted for a liberal. Not starting now.

well a non vote for Romney is a vote for obama, I am sorry if this offends your sensibilities but its the truth.

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 11:38 AM
Then if Obama is re-elected you are forbidden to complain.


I have a different belief. if YOU vote for someone and they destroy the country, YOU are to blame. I am very much to blame for Bush II, so I do blame myself for that mistake.



well a non vote for Romney is a vote for obama, I am sorry if this offends your sensibilities but its the truth.


Why isn't my non vote for Obama a vote for Romney then? Very confusing logic you use.

Bailey
11-01-2012, 12:03 PM
I have a different belief. if YOU vote for someone and they destroy the country, YOU are to blame. I am very much to blame for Bush II, so I do blame myself for that mistake.





Why isn't my non vote for Obama a vote for Romney then? Very confusing logic you use.

No, since obama is ahead in the polling and the sitting prez, romney has a harder road to hoe as it were. If Romney was blowing obama away in the polls then I wouldn't care what you did with your vote.

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 12:20 PM
No, since obama is ahead in the polling and the sitting prez, romney has a harder road to hoe as it were. If Romney was blowing obama away in the polls then I wouldn't care what you did with your vote.

Oh ok. So my point still stands. I'm never voting for a liberal. Maybe you should take a look at why the big lib from MASS is losing then to understand why he's losing the polls and some conservatives are sick of the GOP shenanigans.

hampshirebrit
11-03-2012, 10:33 AM
I've been following Intrade for a couple of years or so. You are right, they call it right more often than not. It's an interesting trading model. I was going to put some $$$ into it for this election and related events, but didn't have time due to other commitments.

I would have made a big pile of dosh. Today, it says:

http://i67.photobucket.com/albums/h281/hampshirebrit/854f00adb5f192eea5b1620826dd2cd4.jpg

... pretty much how I figured how things were going to play out, at least as goes the presidency.

Rockntractor
11-03-2012, 11:02 AM
It ain't over till it's over. Yogi Berra

hampshirebrit
11-03-2012, 11:42 AM
It ain't over till it's over. Yogi Berra

True dat. Some Intrade markets can be very volatile all the way to the wire.

Still, I'm thinking that if the GOP had someone running better than Mittens, then this would be going our way more than it seems to be right now.

Rockntractor
11-03-2012, 11:48 AM
True dat. Some Intrade markets can be very volatile all the way to the wire.

Still, I'm thinking that if the GOP had someone running better than Mittens, then this would be going our way more than it seems to be right now.

We sure tried, but in fairness the more facts that come out about Mittens the more likeable he becomes, he is a man of character and at the very least ten steps up from McCain.

Rockntractor
11-03-2012, 11:54 AM
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/imagesqtbnANd9GcSxye9Z2rA7EXGujlSWd.jpg

hampshirebrit
11-03-2012, 12:09 PM
We sure tried, but in fairness the more facts that come out about Mittens the more likeable he becomes, he is a man of character and at the very least ten steps up from McCain.

Yep, I guess. Anything has to better.
Just wish Christie would have run, then it would be a done deal by now.

Rockntractor
11-03-2012, 12:12 PM
Yep, I guess. Anything has to better.
Just wish Christie would have run, then it would be a done deal by now.

Yeah, the donkey would have been turned around.

Starbuck
11-03-2012, 12:21 PM
;532082............Oh and It was VERY accurate in 2008..............

BRRRRRPPPP! Fail. May have been "accurate in '08" simply by reading the polls, which turned out to be pretty close. But the record in other areas gets them taken out of the line up:

Based in Dublin, Intrade has been around for more than a dozen years, taking bets on everything from who Mitt Romney will tap as his vice-presidential nominee (the current favorite is Rob Portman)...............
failed to predict the dramatic outcome of the health-care law, forecasting a 75% chance the justices would overturn the law’s individual mandate......


Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2012/08/09/intrade-wall-street-political-crystal-ball/#ixzz2BB1rWWYr


Intrade doesn't matter any more than anyone else. And less than most.

Rockntractor
11-04-2012, 05:58 PM
Funny thing, have you ever noticed with these Paulbots when Ron Paul had 5% at most of public support behind him he should have won and the election was being stolen from him yet when Romney is in a tie with polling weighted heavily to the Democrats favor they say there is no way he can win?http://www.picgifs.com/smileys/smileys-and-emoticons/confused/smileys-confused-917847.gif (http://www.picgifs.com/smileys/)

Molon Labe
11-05-2012, 09:33 AM
BRRRRRPPPP! Fail. May have been "accurate in '08" simply by reading the polls, which turned out to be pretty close. But the record in other areas gets them taken out of the line up:


Intrade doesn't matter any more than anyone else. And less than most.

let's see. I think it will be interesting. Maybe it's off, but I'm thinking it will predict the winner.

Today

ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303 ✓


I think that's a little high for Obama....probably somewhere around 270 something

Molon Labe
11-06-2012, 05:02 PM
303 to 235 was the final this morning. I still think it's too high.

Arroyo_Doble
11-06-2012, 05:14 PM
303 to 235 was the final this morning. I still think it's too high.

At this point, you can probably start naming the states to subtract:

303 - Colorado 9 = 294

294 - Virginia 13 = 281

281 - New Hampshire 4 = 277

277 - Iowa 6 = 271

271 - Ohio 18 = 253

Molon Labe
11-06-2012, 05:28 PM
At this point, you can probably start naming the states to subtract:

303 - Colorado 9 = 294

294 - Virginia 13 = 281

281 - New Hampshire 4 = 277

277 - Iowa 6 = 271

271 - Ohio 18 = 253

Virginia is in a bad way going to be one of the keys tonight. Unfortunately I think Obama's got it, because he hasn't been here. He let Biden suck up to crowds yesterday.

NH and IOWA are probably going Romney although the former is debateable.

Romney is not winning Ohio.

Odysseus
11-06-2012, 06:40 PM
Virginia is in a bad way going to be one of the keys tonight. Unfortunately I think Obama's got it, because he hasn't been here. He let Biden suck up to crowds yesterday.

NH and IOWA are probably going Romney although the former is debateable.

Romney is not winning Ohio.

I really don't see Virginia going to Obama. First, Rasmussen had Romney up by 2, and he's the most reliable pollster. VA went to Bush twice against Kerry and Gore, and the military vote here is pretty solid. The DC suburbs have seen lower turnout than four years ago, and I don't see much enthusiasm among the Democrats, while the Republicans are fired up. I'd be shocked if Obama pulled this off.

Molon Labe
11-06-2012, 06:58 PM
I really don't see Virginia going to Obama. First, Rasmussen had Romney up by 2, and he's the most reliable pollster. VA went to Bush twice against Kerry and Gore, and the military vote here is pretty solid. The DC suburbs have seen lower turnout than four years ago, and I don't see much enthusiasm among the Democrats, while the Republicans are fired up. I'd be shocked if Obama pulled this off.

I'm not sure if the military vote is as strong as the left wing bureaucrat lapdogs that live in N. Virgina. Not to mention Yankee transplants and everyone else who's dependant on the Feds for about 3/4 of Virginias jobs. It's going to be close and it's just a prediction. I couldn't believe it in 08 when we went for Obama either.

m00
11-06-2012, 07:04 PM
We sure tried, but in fairness the more facts that come out about Mittens the more likeable he becomes, he is a man of character and at the very least ten steps up from McCain.

I completely agree with you. The more he is "caught" in off-air or in private comments, the more I liked him. But then he would go in public and give a speech or his campaign would do a press announcement about his position on something, and I'm like "why would you say that?" And then I don't know what to believe.

Whatever happens, I hope the RNC learns the right lessons from this election.

Molon Labe
11-06-2012, 07:33 PM
Whatever happens, I hope the RNC learns the right lessons from this election.

Agree, because if Romney is soundly defeated, It will send a message not to nominate a third liberal in 16.

djones520
11-06-2012, 07:34 PM
Agree, because if Romney is soundly defeated, It will send a message not to nominate a third liberal in 16.

He won't be. My prediction is that if he's defeated, we'll see a 2000 type thing. I won the popular vote, and lost by a hair on the electoral. It won't be a sound thrashing.

m00
11-06-2012, 07:41 PM
Agree, because if Romney is soundly defeated, It will send a message not to nominate a third liberal in 16.

Wellllll..... I'm sure what they will actually say is "we didn't do a good enough job of coaching our selected nominee to act like a conservative in the primaries in such a way that he can walk back from the positions in the general and then act like a centrist but not be called a flip-flopper. lets pick an emptier suit next time that looks more comfortable lying."

But I'm an optimist. :)