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Apocalypse
10-17-2012, 11:58 PM
Via National Journal (http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017):

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.


It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…


Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.


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Its all coming down to Ohio.

NJCardFan
10-18-2012, 02:32 AM
There is speculation that this very well might be an electoral tie. If that happens, the term clusterfuck is going to gain new meaning. We could conceivably end up with a Romney/Biden administration. That said, if those U of Colorado guys are right(and they have been since 1980), this election is going to be an electoral blowout. Also, word has it that Pennsylvania is now back in play as Romney is gaining significant ground there and even NJ isn't so much the sure thing. And Wisconsin is also in the toss up category. Just a week ago, according to RCP, Obama had a 251-191 advantage. Well, 40 of those electoral votes are now in the toss up bin so if Romney loses Ohio but gains Pennsylvania and Wisconsin then Ohio would be moot. And I don't know why Iowa, Nevada, and NH are so important. Combined they are 16 electoral votes. Colorado is 9 and Michigan is 16 all by itself. But as I said, if Romney wrestles Pennsylvania away from Obama, then Ohio loses it's importance.

Odysseus
10-18-2012, 09:07 AM
There is speculation that this very well might be an electoral tie. If that happens, the term clusterfuck is going to gain new meaning. We could conceivably end up with a Romney/Biden administration. That said, if those U of Colorado guys are right(and they have been since 1980), this election is going to be an electoral blowout. Also, word has it that Pennsylvania is now back in play as Romney is gaining significant ground there and even NJ isn't so much the sure thing. And Wisconsin is also in the toss up category. Just a week ago, according to RCP, Obama had a 251-191 advantage. Well, 40 of those electoral votes are now in the toss up bin so if Romney loses Ohio but gains Pennsylvania and Wisconsin then Ohio would be moot. And I don't know why Iowa, Nevada, and NH are so important. Combined they are 16 electoral votes. Colorado is 9 and Michigan is 16 all by itself. But as I said, if Romney wrestles Pennsylvania away from Obama, then Ohio loses it's importance.

An electoral tie would go to the House of Representatives, which is Republican. We'd have Romney and Ryan, and a lot of extremely pissed off Democrats. Think 2000 all over again, but with even more vitriol.

LukeEDay
10-18-2012, 09:15 AM
They are giving up on Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Yes, you right. If this is a tie, it will go to the House; at which point it would go to Romney/Ryan - Upsetting liberals. With in the next minute the libs will file a lawsuit and it will of course be Al Gore 2000 with ten fold.

But like also said, it won't be a tie. Reagan Coalition and the University of Colorado says it will be a blow out. I can only hope and pray that they are both right.

Apocalypse
10-18-2012, 09:42 AM
There is speculation that this very well might be an electoral tie. If that happens, the term clusterfuck is going to gain new meaning. We could conceivably end up with a Romney/Biden administration. That said, if those U of Colorado guys are right(and they have been since 1980), this election is going to be an electoral blowout. Also, word has it that Pennsylvania is now back in play as Romney is gaining significant ground there and even NJ isn't so much the sure thing. And Wisconsin is also in the toss up category. Just a week ago, according to RCP, Obama had a 251-191 advantage. Well, 40 of those electoral votes are now in the toss up bin so if Romney loses Ohio but gains Pennsylvania and Wisconsin then Ohio would be moot. And I don't know why Iowa, Nevada, and NH are so important. Combined they are 16 electoral votes. Colorado is 9 and Michigan is 16 all by itself. But as I said, if Romney wrestles Pennsylvania away from Obama, then Ohio loses it's importance.

Romney/Biden in the case of a tie???

Dear lord no!!!!

djones520
10-18-2012, 09:58 AM
Michigan and Pennsylvannia are in play as well. I don't really see either of them going to Romney, but it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to throw some extra money that way to try to shift Obama's attention away from Ohio.

This is going to either be crazy close, or a landslide.

Edit: I just checked RCP, they've got Romney leading in Jersey. Just by .4 but that's still pretty big. Granted, none of this stuff is reflecting the post debate bounces (whichever way they'll occur), but Obama may have to really start spreading himself thin to keep ahold of usual Dem states.

Rockntractor
10-18-2012, 10:01 AM
This is going to either be crazy close, or a landslide.

http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/puzzled.jpg

NJCardFan
10-18-2012, 10:46 PM
An electoral tie would go to the House of Representatives, which is Republican. We'd have Romney and Ryan, and a lot of extremely pissed off Democrats. Think 2000 all over again, but with even more vitriol.

They said that the presidential vote goes to the House but the Senate votes for the Veep. Here:


As our site URL says, it takes “270 to Win”. If neither candidate gets a majority of the Electoral Votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. Senators would elect the Vice-President. http://www.270towin.com/blog/electoral-college/what-happens-if-there-is-a-tie-in-the-electoral-college