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bijou
10-20-2012, 04:13 PM
This is thread for results of the daily/weekly tracking polls and for discussion on the trends.

Rasmussen today 49% Romney, 48% Obama http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Gallup today 48% Romney, 46% Obama http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

bijou
10-21-2012, 01:41 PM
It's now 45% to 52%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx?version=print

Encouraging news

Rockntractor
10-27-2012, 07:59 PM
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/Capture-2.jpg

djones520
10-28-2012, 07:54 AM
Newest Ohio poll shows a Tie.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121028/NEWS010601/310280047&Ref=AR?nclick_check=1

Reading the last line of the article, it leaves little doubt who they're shilling for. So that's definitely good news.

djones520
10-29-2012, 10:49 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

Romney up by 2 in Ohio!

Rockntractor
10-29-2012, 01:56 PM
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Read More>http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

Apocalypse
10-29-2012, 08:58 PM
Obama's world just fell apart!

Gallup Poll Finds Romney Up 52-46% Among Early Voters… http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/oqfuqf6mvkcmge4hybbfog.gif

This is of people who have already voted, not likely voted. Plus look at who they intend to vote for on election day!

Rockntractor
10-31-2012, 11:18 AM
Since Romney has had a significant lead in the final period before the election Gallop has decided to suspend it's polling, of course they will say it is because of the hurricane in the northeast but it is no secret the DOJ has filed a case against them so everything they can do for the incumbent will help.
It's a big country the election is close, get with the fucking program or get out Gallup!

Bailey
10-31-2012, 12:44 PM
Where is a good website that has a state by state list of who's leading what.

Rockntractor
10-31-2012, 12:46 PM
Where is a good website that has a state by state list of who's leading what.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

djones520
10-31-2012, 12:46 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Apocalypse
11-01-2012, 03:11 PM
http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/Screen-shot-2012-11-01-at-2.13.13-PM.png

We are currently ahead by 19 points in Pennsylvania! Actually voted people.

djones520
11-01-2012, 04:39 PM
http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/Screen-shot-2012-11-01-at-2.13.13-PM.png

We are currently ahead by 19 points in Pennsylvania! Actually voted people.

I don't want to get to excited about that, but oh my god thats massive.

djones520
11-01-2012, 04:47 PM
Also, for that RCP link, I've become quite a bit disollusioned by it of late. They include about a months worth of polls in there, and then average them out. So even with the big debate bounce that Romney had, it still has a lot of high numbered Obama polls way down at the bottom which skews the over all coloring of the state.

Rockntractor
11-04-2012, 09:43 AM
This projection from Rockntractor Political Sciences division.
http://i686.photobucket.com/albums/vv230/upyourstruly/Capture-3.png

djones520
11-04-2012, 09:59 AM
Michigan: Romney 47 Obama 46

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19996781/2012/11/04/romney-and-obama-in-dead-heat-in-latest-michigan-poll

Penn: Romney 47 Obama 47

http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/2878015-74/romney-percent-poll-state-obama-pennsylvania-president-lee-presidential-voters#axzz2BCil7kLj

I bet someone in the Oval Office is sweating this out a bit.

djones520
11-04-2012, 10:03 AM
PPP's latest poll of Penn is a joke. They measured 48% democrats, 38% republicans, and only 14% independants. With such skewed numbers there were only able to get 52% for Obama. He's in trouble in Penn I'd say.

The trend in Michigan has been nothing but up for Romney as well. Rasmussen a month ago had Obama up by 7. On the first they only had him up by 5. Baydoun/Foster a month ago had Obama up by 3, today they had Romney up by 1. The interesting thing about the Baydoun poll was those they polled. Women 60%. Democrats 43%. So they heavily sampled women, and Democrats, and they still came out with a Romney lead.

newshutr
11-04-2012, 10:37 AM
Yesterday my station aired a poll (We're in Cleveland..) that it was 49/49 tie here in Ohio. Forget who did the poll yesterday...

This morning, we air a poll from NBC/NYTimes/Marist that has 51% O and 45% R. dafuq?

considering the sources of the new poll, it's desperation to make Chairman Zero look good...

Bailey
11-04-2012, 12:32 PM
I had to drive through OH today and I prayed that they will make a smart choice on Tue and vote for Romney.

djones520
11-05-2012, 05:26 PM
Romney internal polls have him up 1 in Ohio, tied in Wisconsin and Penn.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228359/Romney-campaign-internal-polling-puts-Republican-nominee-point-ahead-Ohio.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

djones520
11-05-2012, 06:33 PM
Gallup Romney 50% Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

Rasmussen Romney 49% Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Molon Labe
11-05-2012, 07:10 PM
Gallup Romney 50% Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

Rasmussen Romney 49% Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Something seems amiss with Rasmussen this go around, but they have traditionally been the most reliable. I'd go with them if you're going to make a prediction. I still think the electoral vote is not in Romney's favor.

djones520
11-05-2012, 07:14 PM
I believe Ohio will go Romney's way, and Pennsylvania will be a real nail biter.

Molon Labe
11-05-2012, 07:38 PM
I'm more concerned about those 5-8 % of undecided voters who may go to the polls tomorrow.
I can't believe at this stage of the game there are people who would be undecided. But it happened in the primaries. I guess....why wouldn't it happen in the GE.

Rockntractor
11-05-2012, 07:46 PM
I'm more concerned about those 5-8 % of undecided voters who may go to the polls tomorrow.
I can't believe at this stage of the game there are people who would be undecided. But it happened in the primaries. I guess....why wouldn't it happen in the GE.

I kind of Go with Jim Quinn's take on this, they may call them undecided but they have already decided they are not going to vote for Obama, their only remaining decision is whether to throw their vote away or give it to Romney.

Zeus
11-05-2012, 07:54 PM
I'm more concerned about those 5-8 % of undecided voters who may go to the polls tomorrow.
I can't believe at this stage of the game there are people who would be undecided. But it happened in the primaries. I guess....why wouldn't it happen in the GE.

I've heard more than one talking head politico say that late in the game historically undecideds & independents break heavily for the Challenger over the Incumbent.

I too find it hard to believe that there are still undecided voters out there.

Bailey
11-05-2012, 07:54 PM
I kind of Go with Jim Quinn's take on this, they may call them undecided but they have already decided they are not going to vote for Obama, their only remaining decision is whether to throw their vote away or give it to Romney.

Well isn't a non vote a vote for Obama?

djones520
11-05-2012, 08:03 PM
Well isn't a non vote a vote for Obama?

Not if the person was never going to vote for Romney in the first place. A non-vote from a liberal is just as good IMO.

Bailey
11-05-2012, 08:04 PM
Not if the person was never going to vote for Romney in the first place. A non-vote from a liberal is just as good IMO.

Ok let me rephrase, a conservative that doesn't vote a vote for Obama?

djones520
11-05-2012, 08:08 PM
Ok let me rephrase, a conservative that doesn't vote a vote for Obama?

*shrugs* I'd wager they're few and far between. Just as libs who aren't going to vote for Obama are.

Rockntractor
11-05-2012, 08:27 PM
Ok let me rephrase, a conservative that doesn't vote a vote for Obama?

You are never going to get the looney fringe vote, there is always a Larouche , a Perot, or a Ron Paul to mop those up.
If one of these outsiders ever turned out legit and started getting real numbers the looney fringe would drop them like a turd and find another underdog with a 5% following, losing is in their genes.

Zeus
11-05-2012, 08:48 PM
You are never going to get the looney fringe vote, there is always a Larouche , a Perot, or a Ron Paul to mop those up.
If one of these outsiders ever turned out legit and started getting real numbers the looney fringe would drop them like a turd and find another underdog with a 5% following, losing is in their genes.

I've said that about Libertarians for years. They are their own worst enemy when it comes to loosing elections through abandoning their candidate at the polls. Then crying & wailing the system is rigged blah blah blah.

Bailey
11-05-2012, 08:53 PM
I've said that about Libertarians for years. They are their own worst enemy when it comes to loosing elections through abandoning their candidate at the polls. Then crying & wailing the system is rigged blah blah blah.



http://youtu.be/5iZl5LGornI


Just add Ron Paul to that banner in the video