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Carol
11-01-2012, 10:34 AM
Oh, no....we're doomed!!

link (http://upload.democraticunderground.com/1251197107)


WI_DEM (31,697 posts)

Obama +8 in Michigan per PPP

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45. Although there has been a lot of talk recently about Romney having the chance to pull off an upset in the state, these numbers indicate that possibility is quite a long shot

Key findings from the survey include:

-An outright majority of Michigan voters approve of Obama’s performance as President with 52% giving him good marks to 46% who disapprove. Romney is not a popular figure in his native state with only 46% of voters rating him favorably to 49% with an unfavorable opinion.

-Obama is leading thanks to wide advantages with women (60/38), African Americans (86/8), and voters under 65 (55/42). Romney is ahead with men (53/44), whites (50/48), and seniors (53/45), but he’d need much wider margins with those groups to have any hope of winning Michigan.

-Obama has wide advantages over Romney in terms of who voters trust more to stand up for the middle class (55/42) and protect Medicare (52/44). Romney’s inability to convince regular people that he would be an advocate for them makes it very difficult for him to compete in a state like Michigan.

Full results here
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-8-in-michigan.html

So, Obama is up by 8 percentage points.

And to get him there PPP had to................

Poll the following way............

Women 55%
Men 45%

I know more women vote than men but is it really 10 percentage points?

Democrat 43%
Republican 33%
Independent/other 24%


Democrats are 10 percentage points more than Republicans? I don't think so.

But since this fits the narritive they want to believe they take it at face value and declare that the election is OVER.


VirginiaTarheel (413 posts)

1. Boom
PsychProfessor (74 posts)

2. Yup! 8 point spread, only 3 percent undecided

So, Romney is done in MI, even if he somehow got the 3 percent to all break in his direction. Doesn't look like he will find any EV redemption in his "home state" despite the remarkably favorable tree heights.


Of course if anyone pointed that out they would be declared to be a RIGHT WING TROLL spouting REPUBLICAN TALKING POINTS and banned.

LukeEDay
11-01-2012, 10:37 AM
Looking at the sampling and seeing how they are reacting shows just how stupid they, both, are... :roll eyes:

djones520
11-01-2012, 10:38 AM
Yeah, 10 points in the D favor like that? That poll isn't skewed at all. :rolleyes:

Molon Labe
11-01-2012, 10:53 AM
Most likely Michigan is +3 for Obama. Anything more is pretty skewed.

noonwitch
11-01-2012, 11:24 AM
Most likely Michigan is +3 for Obama. Anything more is pretty skewed.


It's more like +5 for Obama. I just don't see many Romney signs in yards or stickers on cars-only in wealthy neighborhoods and in rural areas, like Livingston County.

2 of the largest cities are pretty much all Obama (Detroit and Warren). The city of Grand Rapids (not it's suburbs) is about 50/50.


The bulk of Michigan's population lives in Detroit and it's immediate suburbs. As much as the rest of the state hates it, we pretty much decide the presidential vote for the state, at least we do when the second largest city is split 50/50.

txradioguy
11-01-2012, 01:16 PM
So they sample 33% more dems and the best he can get is +8?

Even though they shouldn't be shocked on November 6th...I know that at Obama HQ they are going to be slack jawed and staring at their shoes wondering how they lost.

But then that's what they get for believing their own propaganda.

LukeEDay
11-01-2012, 04:01 PM
So they sample 33% more dems and the best he can get is +8?

Even though they shouldn't be shocked on November 6th...I know that at Obama HQ they are going to be slack jawed and staring at their shoes wondering how they lost.

But then that's what they get for believing their own propaganda.

That is just it. The over sample Dems by +1,000 and the polls are that close. If this was seriously going for obama he would have a double digit lead from them. But, since they are so close, and even have Romney winning some of them, it is not a good sign for the chosen one.

Madisonian
11-01-2012, 06:16 PM
It's more like +5 for Obama. I just don't see many Romney signs in yards or stickers on cars-only in wealthy neighborhoods and in rural areas, like Livingston County.

2 of the largest cities are pretty much all Obama (Detroit and Warren). The city of Grand Rapids (not it's suburbs) is about 50/50.


The bulk of Michigan's population lives in Detroit and it's immediate suburbs. As much as the rest of the state hates it, we pretty much decide the presidential vote for the state, at least we do when the second largest city is split 50/50.

We hate it because you keep voting yourselves more money out of our pockets and then when the rest of us try to hold the worthless areas south of 696 and east of 275 accountable with things like the Emergency Manager laws, you piss and moan and file lawsuits because we are interfering.

ETA: You also keep foisting Levin and Stabmenow on us every 6 years, fuck you all very much.

djones520
11-01-2012, 06:18 PM
We hate it because you keep voting yourselves more money out of our pockets and then when the rest of us try to hold the worthless areas south of 696 and east of 275 accountable with things like the Emergency Manager laws, you piss and moan and file lawsuits because we are interfering.

+1

I did vote for the Emergency Manager Laws, I think I said No on everything else.

Madisonian
11-01-2012, 06:37 PM
+1

I did vote for the Emergency Manager Laws, I think I said No on everything else.

Yes on 1, yes on 5 (super majority to raise taxes) and no on the rest.

djones520
11-01-2012, 07:09 PM
Yes on 1, yes on 5 (super majority to raise taxes) and no on the rest.

Yeah, I did vote Yes on 5 as well.

I felt conflicted on voting for the collective bargaining one, I'd have been fine if it was just public sector stuff, but they tossed private in there as well so I had to shoot it down.

Irish Mom
11-01-2012, 09:52 PM
I will vote "yes" on 1 and "no" on the rest. When you mess with the state constitution, you are only asking for it.

AmPat
11-01-2012, 11:09 PM
It's more like +5 for Obama. I just don't see many Romney signs in yards or stickers on cars-only in wealthy neighborhoods and in rural areas, like Livingston County.

2 of the largest cities are pretty much all Obama (Detroit and Warren). The city of Grand Rapids (not it's suburbs) is about 50/50.


The bulk of Michigan's population lives in Detroit and it's immediate suburbs. As much as the rest of the state hates it, we pretty much decide the presidential vote for the state, at least we do when the second largest city is split 50/50.
That there proves that Southerners are much smarter than Northerners. Who in their right mind supports a pathetic loser with a four year track record of failure?

djones520
11-01-2012, 11:17 PM
That there proves that Southerners are much smarter than Northerners. Who in their right mind supports a pathetic loser with a four year track record of failure?

I'm pretty sure Atlanta will be about as blue as Detroit will.

AmPat
11-01-2012, 11:30 PM
I'm pretty sure Atlanta will be about as blue as Detroit will.
I realize that. I'm messing with Nooner over a previous comment from another thread. I'm well aware of the hotbeds of liberal infestation in the South.

Zathras
11-02-2012, 12:27 AM
The problem with this poll and every other poll you see is they're basing their weighting on the 2008 voter turnout when they should be using the 2010 numbers. I think most of the pollsters are going to be very surprised come November 7th because of this.

SaintLouieWoman
11-02-2012, 08:56 AM
I realize that. I'm messing with Nooner over a previous comment from another thread. I'm well aware of the hotbeds of liberal infestation in the South.
Sarasota is also infested with libs. Scary thing it's not only in the Whole Foods Parking lot. :biggrin-new:
I think the demographics of people moving here has shifted from the Midwest to the Northeast. After the storms, it's liable to get worse. The east coast of Florida used to be the destination of choice, but now they're coming to the Gulf Coast.

noonwitch
11-02-2012, 09:00 AM
We hate it because you keep voting yourselves more money out of our pockets and then when the rest of us try to hold the worthless areas south of 696 and east of 275 accountable with things like the Emergency Manager laws, you piss and moan and file lawsuits because we are interfering.

ETA: You also keep foisting Levin and Stabmenow on us every 6 years, fuck you all very much.

You're welcome. We have the most people, we get the most votes. Despite that, the republicans have managed to control the Michigan Legislature, the MSSC and currently, the Governor's office and the Attorney General's office. The GOP has held the Governor's office after each of the last two census counts and has controlled redistricting.

Stabenow is up by about 20 points. If your party didn't choose a complete racist asshole to run, you might actually be able to win that one. That ad he ran during the Super Bowl pretty much cost him the election in February, before he even won the primary.

Levin is probably going to retire in a couple of years. You could win that one, if you don't run Hoekstra. Blanchard will probably run for that spot on our side, and he's not all that popular-but he could beat Hoekstra.

noonwitch
11-02-2012, 09:05 AM
I realize that. I'm messing with Nooner over a previous comment from another thread. I'm well aware of the hotbeds of liberal infestation in the South.


Dude, I told you on that thread that my comments were a response to the guy who uses the traitor flag as his icon, not to the whole south. Like I said then, we wouldn't have anything called "American Cusine" without the south. All of our cooking styles up here come from either other countries, or the southern tradition.

AmPat
11-03-2012, 03:11 AM
Dude, I told you on that thread that my comments were a response to the guy who uses the traitor flag as his icon, not to the whole south. Like I said then, we wouldn't have anything called "American Cusine" without the south. All of our cooking styles up here come from either other countries, or the southern tradition.
Chill Nooner, just teasing you. I enjoy a little cross banter sometimes. Maybe I should have added a smiley?