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megimoo
10-08-2008, 11:19 AM
He's Philadelphia born and raised, a resident of the Northeast.

He's 51-years-old and he's never voted for a Republican. Not once. He's also a union plumber and that's why he doesn't want his named used.

Leadership is lobbying the rank-and-file hard to vote for Sen. Barack Hussein Obama. If my friend the plumber publicly states that he intends to vote for Sen. John McCain instead, he'll hear about it.

"I can't bring myself to vote for somebody whose wife has never been proud of America," he says, alluding to a putdown of our country uttered by Michelle Obama. "McCain's a war hero. This other guy's a show pony."

The plumber mostly keeps his feelings to himself, perhaps close family members might know. Maybe not. They'd be shocked.

The Messiah has blown dust into the eyes of many young people and maybe the plumber's nephews and nieces overlook Barack "the Baby-Killer's" record and hard-left political leanings.

You really can't blame young adults for not knowing. The media has made it a point not to inform them of Sen. Obama's slurs against our fighting men and women, and opposition to a bill that would have protected infants who survive an abortion.

Maybe they've heard (or maybe not) about Sen. Obama's close ties with a man, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who sits right up there with David Duke on the list of America's most infamous racists.

Rev. Wright performed the ceremonies when Sen. Obama got married and the senator's daughters were baptized.

The plumber knows all about it. He makes it a point to keep informed, which means digging beneath what the mainstream media shovels your way.

The plumber also knows the risk of stating publicly in a city that's overwhelmingly Democrat, among friends and family who've never voted Republican, that you don't want Sen. Obama to win.

"Oh, then you're a racist," the plumber says with a shrug, noting that Sen. Obama himself has none too subtly attempted to slur critics with that label. "My vote has nothing to do with race. What has this guy ever done?"

The plumber would never tell any pollster his intentions. It's nobody's business but his. There's no way of knowing how many people in the Northeast are keeping their opinions about this election to themselves.

As of this writing, Sen. Obama leads in the polls. How accurate is that? During the primaries Sen. Obama's margin of victory had often been overestimated.

Pundits write that off to people in exit interviews simply lying for fear of appearing racist.

There may be something to that. But not wanting to appear racist is not the same thing as actually being racist.

My friend the plumber isn't a racist.

He isn't a fool either. He knows the difference between celebrity and authenticity.

I'm betting that there are a lot of people like my friend the plumber, representing a stealth-voting block that will shock prognosticators on Nov. 4.

snip

Back then many in the Northeast wanted to secede from the rest of Philadelphia and call themselves Liberty County.

I think that movement resurfaces over the years, but in many ways the Northeast is in constant revolt against the rest of the city. The section is full of people like my friend the plumber.

It is full of nurses, firefighters, cops, carpenters, teachers, small-business owners, car salesmen, factory workers and bus drivers.

They are people from blue-collar backgrounds who are predisposed to vote for the Democrat.

They are people like the plumber who can hardly believe that this year, for the very first time in their lives, they are going to vote for a Republican presidential candidate. Shhh! Don't tell anyone.

The media charges that they are doing this because of race, in an effort to shame these people into voting for Sen. Obama. They don't know these people.

That sort of cheap ploy just makes them stand their ground. They won't back down, just as Sen.

McCain didn't back down all those years ago in a prison hell-hole. These people put country above political correctness.

Three cheers for Liberty County!

http://www.thebulletin.us/site/printerFriendly.cfm?brd=2737&dept_id=576361&newsid=20155203

xavierob82
10-08-2008, 11:35 AM
Yeah, okay whatever.

That must be why Obama is leading McCain in PA by double-digits, huh?

LibraryLady
10-08-2008, 11:43 AM
Did you see the internals in the Survey USA poll? Wildly skewed.

cat714
10-08-2008, 03:06 PM
Oh yes, the polls decide who will be president...:rolleyes:

PoliCon
10-08-2008, 03:13 PM
Yeah, okay whatever.

That must be why Obama is leading McCain in PA by double-digits, huh?yes. It's called the bradly factor. And amongst working class white dems it is a real factor.

Speedy
10-08-2008, 03:38 PM
yes. It's called the bradly factor. And amongst working class white dems it is a real factor.

As we shall soon see.

cat714
10-08-2008, 03:39 PM
You have to wonder which areas of these states the pollsters are calling. I know here in California, responses in, say Oakland, CA would be a lot different from responses in, Newport Beach, CA.

Eyelids
10-08-2008, 04:59 PM
yes. It's called the bradly factor. And amongst working class white dems it is a real factor.

Find me proof of the Bradley Effect in the primaries.

PoliCon
10-08-2008, 05:11 PM
Find me proof of the Bradley Effect in the primaries.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=PA
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=WV

YupItsMe
10-08-2008, 05:14 PM
Find me proof of the Bradley Effect in the primaries.



That's a little hard to do, Moron. The Bradley Effect is basically stating that an individual will vote against their chosen party to avoid voting for a black person. They still had two choices in their own party during the primary.

To deny the Bradley Effect is to deny that there's still racism in this country. Is that what your saying?

Personally, I think there's still plenty of racism in this country and it could play in areas that are usually strongholds like the cities. More race issues there than in rural areas.

11 months of the year I wish that this country would move beyond judging a person by their race or nationality, but this October and November I hope the KKK is doing voter registration drives.

Cold Warrior
10-08-2008, 05:26 PM
That's a little hard to do, Moron. The Bradley Effect is basically stating that an individual will vote against their chosen party to avoid voting for a black person. They still had two choices in their own party during the primary.

To deny the Bradley Effect is to deny that there's still racism in this country. Is that what your saying?

Personally, I think there's still plenty of racism in this country and it could play in areas that are usually strongholds like the cities. More race issues there than in rural areas.

11 months of the year I wish that this country would move beyond judging a person by their race or nationality, but this October and November I hope the KKK is doing voter registration drives.

Not exactly. The Bradley Effect refers to voters misleading pollsters in that they will state to a pollster that they will be voting for a black candidate and actually, in the polling booth, vote for the white opponent. It can be manifested in the primaries or any other race that pits a white against a black candidate.

Policon's two examples, therefore, could actually show the Bradley Effect. However, the second one, WV, does not, as all of the polls leading up to the primary showed Clinton beating Obama by huge margins (the Bradley Effect does not simply refer to white people voting for white candidates). The PA primary reference may; I'm not sure what the polls were showing just prior to the primary.

Speedy
10-08-2008, 05:44 PM
Actually, the Bradley Effect has little to do with the voter being racist. It is that the voter does not want to be percieved as racist by the pollster or whoever may ask. They never intend to vote for the Black Candidate and it is because of issues, not race. What is going on now with the Obama Campaign and the Democrat Party and the Media all saying that the only reason someone is not voting for Obama is because of race. No wonder even the ones who have voted Republican their whole political life say "Obama" when asked who they will vote for.

The ones who would "never vote for a black guy" because he is black are those who would never lie about it.

Eyelids
10-08-2008, 05:44 PM
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3248/2753226020_77840e5146_o.png

Wrong on FL, PA's gap was 1.7% and WVA was projected all along to be a blowout.

*might notice there's less than 50 states listed in that graph, not every state was polled enough to really get a feel for what the projections were saying.

PoliCon
10-08-2008, 05:47 PM
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3248/2753226020_77840e5146_o.png

Wrong on FL, PA's gap was 1.7% and WVA was projected all along to be a blowout.

*might notice there's less than 50 states listed in that graph, not every state was polled enough to really get a feel for what the projections were saying.YOU JACKASS - look at the MAPS!! You think for a second that he's going to win a state when that much of the state voted agianst him already??? The only part of PA that went for your boy Barry is the blacker than black philly area.

Zeus
10-08-2008, 06:05 PM
yes. It's called the bradly factor. And amongst working class white dems it is a real factor.

I don't think the so called Bradley effect/factor is what will make the difference between the polls and actual results. I've said it before but I suspect a lot of folks are claiming they are going to vote for Nobama but are actually leaning toward McCain. They are just saying Nobama to escape being accused of & having to defend against being called a racist. The folks that won't vote for a black person are pretty open about it.

YupItsMe
10-08-2008, 06:07 PM
I don't think the so called Bradley effect/factor is what will make the difference between the polls and actual results. I've said it before but I suspect a lot of folks are claiming they are going to vote for Nobama but are actually leaning toward McCain. They are just saying Nobama to escape being accused of & having to defend against being called a racist. The folks that won't vote for a black person are pretty open about it.




Shit!, I imagine Philadelphia's already got a couple thousand votes for Obama logged on the machines already. :mad:

Zeus
10-08-2008, 06:10 PM
Shit!, I imagine Philadelphia's already got a couple thousand votes for Obama logged on the machines already. :mad:

There is that and if the media and the rest of the Dem party really believe the racial divide will make the difference I suggest they take a good long hard look at their own party. Clean up your own damn backyard before you go complaining about the neighbors , ya know.

Eyelids
10-08-2008, 06:45 PM
Even if the Bradley Effect exists and it's a dramatic swing in the neighborhood of 5% Obama still wins this election, McCain is flat on his heels.

Zeus
10-08-2008, 06:51 PM
Even if the Bradley Effect exists and it's a dramatic swing in the neighborhood of 5% Obama still wins this election, McCain is flat on his heels.

With Obama ahead in polls,within the margin of error, with a margin of error of 4 - 5 % you don't think a 5% "Swing" covers the spread ?

lacarnut
10-08-2008, 06:57 PM
With Obama ahead in polls,within the margin of error, with a margin of error of 4 - 5 % you don't think a 5% "Swing" covers the spread ?


Don't confuse Junior with mathematics; he has not mastered the English language yet.

Cold Warrior
10-08-2008, 07:12 PM
I don't think the so called Bradley effect/factor is what will make the difference between the polls and actual results. I've said it before but I suspect a lot of folks are claiming they are going to vote for Nobama but are actually leaning toward McCain. They are just saying Nobama to escape being accused of & having to defend against being called a racist. The folks that won't vote for a black person are pretty open about it.


There seems to be a basic misunderstanding about what the Bradley Effect is and isn't. What you describe, i.e., white voters who claim they are voting for the black candidate but, for whatever reason (the motivation doesn't really matter), vote for the white candidate IS THE BRADLEY EFFECT. It is not, as seems to be the thought here, simply white voters prefering a white candidate over a black one because of his race. That's generally called racisim.

Policon showed two examples of what he considered the Bradley Effect but which, in fact, were illustrations of no Bradley Effect -- the PA and WV Democratic Primaries. The WV case definitely and the PA case if I'm to believe Eyelids numbers, illustrate the exact opposite, i.e., that there is no Bradley Effect. What posters here are positing is that there is one, without any evidence from the primaries, based upon the assumption that rural white PA voters will vote for McCain even though they are polling for Obama. People are certainly free to speculate that this will occur, and it may. However, the primaries do not illustrate this.

Zeus
10-08-2008, 07:25 PM
There seems to be a basic misunderstanding about what the Bradley Effect is and isn't. What you describe, i.e., white voters who claim they are voting for the black candidate but, for whatever reason (the motivation doesn't really matter), vote for the white candidate IS THE BRADLEY EFFECT. It is not, as seems to be the thought here, simply white voters prefering a white candidate over a black one because of his race. That's generally called racisim.

Policon showed two examples of what he considered the Bradley Effect but which, in fact, were illustrations of no Bradley Effect -- the PA and WV Democratic Primaries. The WV case definitely and the PA case if I'm to believe Eyelids numbers, illustrate the exact opposite, i.e., that there is no Bradley Effect. What posters here are positing is that there is one, without any evidence from the primaries, based upon the assumption that rural white PA voters will vote for McCain even though they are polling for Obama. People are certainly free to speculate that this will occur, and it may. However, the primaries do not illustrate this.

My thinking is it has nothing to do with race except for a desire to not being subject to labeled as a racist and/or harassed about it.

Cold Warrior
10-08-2008, 07:27 PM
My thinking is it has nothing to do with race except for a desire to not being subject to labeled as a racist and/or harassed about it.


That's certainly a valid interpretation. The Bradley Effect assumes only that white voters deceive pollsters regarding their vote for a black candidate. It does not necessarily imply a reason.

xavierob82
10-08-2008, 07:48 PM
Aren't most polling firms automated nowadays? I know Rasmussen is.

Why would a white voter lie about their preferences to a bot?

Cold Warrior
10-08-2008, 07:50 PM
Aren't most polling firms automated nowadays? I know Rasmussen is.

Why would a white voter lie about their preferences to a bot?

Probably because they're justifying it to the only person that matters -- themselves.