About Those Polls

[Zeus]

Tuesday’s presidential election was not only a sharp setback for the GOP, but major national pollsters who saw their gloom-and-doom predictions of a double-digit drubbing of John McCain blow up in their faces.

Many pollsters predicted the McCain-Palin ticket would lose by more than twice the actual margin.

Obama garnered 62.4 million votes – or 52 percent of the vote – compared to McCain’s 47 percent and 55.4 million, respectively.

This amounts to a 5 point difference between the two candidates.

The poll that emerged as the most accurate: The George Washington Battleground Poll data as interpreted by Lake Research. That organization predicted a 5 point Obama victory, with a final tally of 51.5 percent for Obama, compared to 46.5 percent for McCain.

Rasmussen and Pew were the next closest, both showing a 6 point spread between Obama and McCain, predicting and 52 to 46 percent outcome.

But predictions by Gallup, Reuters/Zogby, ABC/Washington Post, and CBS polls all had Obama winning by between 9 and 11 points, number well beyond a 4 point margin of error.

Even the RealClearPolitics “poll of polls,” an average of 15 national polls, showed Obama ahead by 7.5 points.

Newsmax.com – Pollsters Inflated Obama Lead, Only One Pollster Called Election (http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/polls_inflated_obama_lead/2008/11/05/147971.html)

[Constitutionally Speaking]

RCP moves slower than any individual poll - simply because it is an average of many polls. When McCain made up some ground in the last few days, it did not move RCP because it still had some old polls holding Obama's margin up.

[Zeus]

One pertinent piece of information left out of the article. This election cycle even though the polls were notably off the mark from the eventual outcome they were tighter than previous yrs polls.

One thing that can be taken of polls is that Pollsters & those polled have no problem with dishonesty and lack of honor.

Even though I am fortunate enough to be able to hire people to take care of the day to day dealings of my business entities I will step in and exert my authority occasionally. I have ex cons, recovering alkies and the likes working for me. I consider my self an open minded and tolerant individual. I will not tolerate being intentionally mislead or lied to though. Doesn't matter who you are or what you do in my stead if I find out you mislead or lied to me I will issue you walking papers in a heart beat. Some call me asshole & some call me sir but I know they are honest about it.

[wulfpaw]

Polls should be made illegal after a certain point before an election, IMO. (A month, 6 weeks), They're little more than just a propaganda tool to begin with. It's apparently too much of a temptation for some to slant things to their liking. And the media runs with it as gospel.

[jendf]

Polls should be made illegal after a certain point before an election, IMO. (A month, 6 weeks), They're little more than just a propaganda tool to begin with. It's apparently too much of a temptation for some to slant things to their liking. And the media runs with it as gospel.

I agree. All polls, including exit polls, should be nixed.

I was so sick of the networks calling states last night when not a single vote had been counted. They based their projections on the polls and then proceeded to give the viewer a rundown on how white Catholics, black Catholics, women, men, independents, nurses, teachers, hispanics, had stated they had voted.

I don't give a crap who the white Catholics say they voted for, just give me the damn vote tally. In a way, I was more miffed at the poll nonsense last night than I was at the election results.

[LogansPapa]

Polls might fall under something to do with the 1st Amendment.

I could be wrong about that, but if people are not of the intellect to filter obvious crap out that they hear, see, and otherwise experience - then we’d be better off to make people pass a basic competency test to vote.

Example: "Crazy McCain Lady." :eek: I rest my case, Your Honor. :cool:

[MrsSmith]

Polls might fall under something to do with the 1st Amendment.

I could be wrong about that, but if people are not of the intellect to filter obvious crap out that they hear, see, and otherwise experience - then we’d be better off to make people pass a basic competency test to vote.

Example: "Crazy McCain Lady." :eek: I rest my case, Your Honor. :cool:

I believe a version of the original test to vote would be appropriate...only those who are home or land owners can vote.

[LogansPapa]

I believe a version of the original test to vote would be appropriate...only those who are home or land owners can vote.

Outstanding - and quite Will Rogersesgue.;)

[Eyelids]

The polls were very accurate this time around, in fact they underestimated Obama in OH and IN.