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Eyelids
06-16-2008, 11:02 PM
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election


McCain has lost ground among both male voters over the past month. He leads Obama among men 49% to 41%, but a month earlier his lead was nearly twice that size (15%). Women voters currently favor Obama 48% to 39%, little changed from a month ago.

The Republican candidate’s lead among unaffiliated voters has vanished. Last month McCain had a 19% lead over Obama among these voters. Now the two candidates are essentially even.

With Mrs. Clinton’s departure from the race, the question remains whether her voters, especially women, will move into Obama’s column. The new survey also shows only a marginal increase for the candidate from state Democrats overall – 76% now as opposed to 75% in May. McCain’s support among Virginia Republicans is at 82%, also up 1% from last month.

http://eldib.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/titanic.jpg
The Republican Party in 2008

Eyelids
06-16-2008, 11:14 PM
Oh, and Kansas is looking competitive:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kansas/election_2008_kansas_presidential_election


That ten-point advantage is half the lead the Republican enjoyed a month ago, before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination. Nationally, since clinching the nomination, Obama has enjoyed a modest bounce in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SFcU9e9QDEI/AAAAAAAABa4/O_Ipgo-B7E4/S1600-R/0616_super.PNG
We all know what that little dent is, but man -- this thing is looking BLEAK for McCain.

lacarnut
06-16-2008, 11:27 PM
Dream on. McCain is going to trounce the magic negro.

Eyelids
06-16-2008, 11:27 PM
Obama might actually win by 5%+

Eyelids
06-16-2008, 11:31 PM
Based on polling numbers heres what the country looks like now (there is no bias here)

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SFcUpZpruMI/AAAAAAAABak/lEsPXkNd30I/S1600-R/0616_bigmap.PNG

Not good for McCain. At all.

Speedy
06-17-2008, 01:47 AM
Based on polling numbers heres what the country looks like now (there is no bias here)

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SFcUpZpruMI/AAAAAAAABak/lEsPXkNd30I/S1600-R/0616_bigmap.PNG

Not good for McCain. At all.


Florida will never go for Obama. Pennsylvania is not looking good for Obama and neither is Ohio. Nevada is not going to go for Obama either. Obama faces the same problem that Gore and Kerry did. He cannot make any inroads in the South. If he can't win the South, can't win Florida or Ohio, and loses Pennsylvania, he is toast.

There are already signs of a rift forming in the Democratic Party as a flood of Democrats running for re-election are stampeding away from him.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 02:05 AM
Obama doesnt need FL, if Obama wins all the Kerry states plus NM, CO and IA (he is polling very well in all 3 of those states) and loses NH its a tie and goes to the Democrat controlled House of Representatives. I wonder who they'll pick?

Since 2/24 there have been 13 polls in PA, of which Obama leads 10 by margins of 7% on average. Theres a guy does this stuff based purely off poll #'s and has Obama at a 76% chance of winning PA.

Ohio is a toss up right now, any discrepancy is pretty much statistical noise even though you might get the impression Obama is starting to catch up (the unity bounce has yet to be really looked at OH, as there have been no polls conducted since Hillary's departure).

And Obama cant win the South?
Most recent Rasmussen poll of MI has Obama up by 3.
McCain is still comfortably ahead in LA, but over the past 2 months his lead has been cut in half.
Missouri is a tie, there are two recent polls with McCain by 1 and 2 percent and a third with Obama by 3. Again, statistical noise.

And incumbent Democrats are aligning with Obama without hesitation, hell the DNC even implented all of his campaign policies from the primaries after Clinton dropped out.

Obama has all of the Kerry states in the bag , he'll have to work a bit to ensure PA stays blue but with Clinton on the trail he can push the right buttons there. Obama has support spread across the entire country, and the GOP cannot compete with his resources. Obama wins the battle of atrition every time, even with Rev. Wright the Republicans couldn't establish a wedge issue.

Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.

dixierat
06-17-2008, 07:41 AM
Well I guess McCain should just pack uop and go home. This is toast! Legs is everywhere!

:cool:

everyman68
06-17-2008, 08:06 AM
Looking at it objectively Obama should win handily.It's still June...

The SuperBowl was for the Patriots to lose.All the metrics favor Obama but he can still lose.He's also the only Democrat who could lose in such a favorable environment.

SaintLouieWoman
06-17-2008, 08:15 AM
Based on polling numbers heres what the country looks like now (there is no bias here)

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/SFcUpZpruMI/AAAAAAAABak/lEsPXkNd30I/S1600-R/0616_bigmap.PNG

Not good for McCain. At all.

And doesn't that just make you so happy? :rolleyes: Think your map is a bit off. Heard on an NBC show yesterday (not exactly the McCain Support Network) that Obama might not even spend too much of his campaign dollars in Florida, as he's too far behind.

Molon Labe
06-17-2008, 08:28 AM
If you knew anything about elections and polling, you would know that this is premature.

If this country is truly ready for a major change from Bush and Republican's in general, then Obama will win. however; in my experience and studies, a minority has a very tough road in American politics especially when that minority is running a national election in the Democratic party. Until that is proven wrong for me, I'll wager McCain will probably be your president.

It doesn't really matter to me...the fact that the Democrats nominated a man who speaks in advertising slogans and like Obama and the the Republican's nominated an unstable Liberal chowderhead as their nominee....We get what we deserve come this November

ReaganForRus
06-17-2008, 08:54 AM
Polls are artificial snapshots originally designed to show here actions needed to be taken by candidates. Now they are used as "news" because the fourth estate is too lazy to actually do their job.

Eyelids, you are exactly the type of sheep that the news media loves because you actually hang on every word, print or spoken, that they feed you. To say that BHO is going to win based on questionable polling practices shows a mind that is immature at best, and downright stupid at the worst. Remember Saddam had polling data that showed him with 100% approval ratings, where did it get him?:D

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 10:37 AM
Obama is in deep shit. After Hillary decided to hang it up, according to pollsters Obama should have gotten a typical bounce of 12%; he only got 7%. The graph and the chart showing the states dispute themselves in the case of VA. The chart of all of the states show that McCain is likely to win VA. Several other disturbing facts on that chart is that Obama is not a shoo in to win all of the northeaster states. I think McCain will win PA and have a shot at NJ and NY.

linda22003
06-17-2008, 10:43 AM
As a Virginian, I think it's going to be a "purple" state this year, and I'll be voting purple myself - as things stand now (who knows if they'll change) it will be R for President, D for Senate, and R for House.

Skygod
06-17-2008, 11:04 AM
Oh NOES!!111

Wow, how did those polls work out in 04?

:cool:

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 12:27 PM
Oh NOES!!111

Wow, how did those polls work out in 04?

:cool:


Exactly. Not even the most optimistic Democrat would have dreamed that they would gain enough seats last election to take back a majority in the Senate.

Not a fan of Ron Paul but did we not hear the pollsters state that he was in trouble with his congressional seat in TX. He won very convincingly. That's why I say polls are full of crap.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 01:37 PM
And doesn't that just make you so happy? :rolleyes: Think your map is a bit off. Heard on an NBC show yesterday (not exactly the McCain Support Network) that Obama might not even spend too much of his campaign dollars in Florida, as he's too far behind.

The polling numbers aren't really indicative of that, but I completely agree. Obama is not going to win FL, and really shouldnt even try.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 01:39 PM
Obama is in deep shit. After Hillary decided to hang it up, according to pollsters Obama should have gotten a typical bounce of 12%; he only got 7%. The graph and the chart showing the states dispute themselves in the case of VA. The chart of all of the states show that McCain is likely to win VA. Several other disturbing facts on that chart is that Obama is not a shoo in to win all of the northeaster states. I think McCain will win PA and have a shot at NJ and NY.

McCain got a bump of about 4%, people aren't participating in partisan politics anymore. And I'll post this again, maybe you guys just forgot to read it:

Obama doesnt need FL, if Obama wins all the Kerry states plus NM, CO and IA (he is polling very well in all 3 of those states) and loses NH its a tie and goes to the Democrat controlled House of Representatives. I wonder who they'll pick?

Since 2/24 there have been 13 polls in PA, of which Obama leads 10 by margins of 7% on average. Theres a guy does this stuff based purely off poll #'s and has Obama at a 76% chance of winning PA.

Ohio is a toss up right now, any discrepancy is pretty much statistical noise even though you might get the impression Obama is starting to catch up (the unity bounce has yet to be really looked at OH, as there have been no polls conducted since Hillary's departure).

And Obama cant win the South?
Most recent Rasmussen poll of MI has Obama up by 3.
McCain is still comfortably ahead in LA, but over the past 2 months his lead has been cut in half.
Missouri is a tie, there are two recent polls with McCain by 1 and 2 percent and a third with Obama by 3. Again, statistical noise.

And incumbent Democrats are aligning with Obama without hesitation, hell the DNC even implented all of his campaign policies from the primaries after Clinton dropped out.

Obama has all of the Kerry states in the bag , he'll have to work a bit to ensure PA stays blue but with Clinton on the trail he can push the right buttons there. Obama has support spread across the entire country, and the GOP cannot compete with his resources. Obama wins the battle of atrition every time, even with Rev. Wright the Republicans couldn't establish a wedge issue.

Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 01:40 PM
If you knew anything about elections and polling, you would know that this is premature.
Polls dont predict, you can use models and projections to get a grasp of what might happen but polls are just a snapshot. I'm fully aware of this, but to discard them as worthless simply because you don't like what they're indicating is really pathetic.

patriot45
06-17-2008, 01:45 PM
Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.


President Hussein Obama, has a nice middle eastern twang to it. It'll never happen.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 01:53 PM
But it is happening, and I've posted poll after poll to support my claim only to be refuted by your useless views on issues.

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 02:48 PM
McCain got a bump of about 4%, people aren't participating in partisan politics anymore. And I'll post this again, maybe you guys just forgot to read it:

Obama doesnt need FL, if Obama wins all the Kerry states plus NM, CO and IA (he is polling very well in all 3 of those states) and loses NH its a tie and goes to the Democrat controlled House of Representatives. I wonder who they'll pick?

Since 2/24 there have been 13 polls in PA, of which Obama leads 10 by margins of 7% on average. Theres a guy does this stuff based purely off poll #'s and has Obama at a 76% chance of winning PA.

Ohio is a toss up right now, any discrepancy is pretty much statistical noise even though you might get the impression Obama is starting to catch up (the unity bounce has yet to be really looked at OH, as there have been no polls conducted since Hillary's departure).

And Obama cant win the South?
Most recent Rasmussen poll of MI has Obama up by 3.
McCain is still comfortably ahead in LA, but over the past 2 months his lead has been cut in half.
Missouri is a tie, there are two recent polls with McCain by 1 and 2 percent and a third with Obama by 3. Again, statistical noise.

And incumbent Democrats are aligning with Obama without hesitation, hell the DNC even implented all of his campaign policies from the primaries after Clinton dropped out.

Obama has all of the Kerry states in the bag , he'll have to work a bit to ensure PA stays blue but with Clinton on the trail he can push the right buttons there. Obama has support spread across the entire country, and the GOP cannot compete with his resources. Obama wins the battle of atrition every time, even with Rev. Wright the Republicans couldn't establish a wedge issue.

Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.

I did not know that MI (Michigan) was a southern state. You must have meant MS for Mississippi. Obama will not win a single state in the south. McCain will win NY. Big guns like Rudy,Koch, Bloomberg & Pataki will campaign for him and he will win the state despite those stupid polls you speak of. Hillary will stand back and laugh because she will be the nominee next time around even if by some miracle Obama wins. Obama will fuck it up so bad, he will lose the primary to the Hildabeast in 2012. Changes made by Obama will === lost hope by the Democratic voters in the primaries.

I guess you are such a partisan prick you overlooked my comment about the polls getting it wrong regarding the Democrats taking over the Senate in the last election.

Go to Vegas, put your money where your mouth is on Obama and you will be broke. McCain is going to whip the magic negro like a red headed stepchild. It's going to be a blow out. Independents and Mexicans are going to vote for McCain in record numbers.

ReaganForRus
06-17-2008, 03:22 PM
I lol at eyelids poll predicting,..........remember how excited all the Dems were with all the EXIT poll reporting that the news outlets ran on election day 2004? I've been polled too many times and just love to screw with pollsters when they call because they have no clue as to actually poll correctly. Let Eyelids continue to have his dramas..........and pass the popcorn:D

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 03:41 PM
I did not know that MI (Michigan) was a southern state. You must have meant MS for Mississippi. Obama will not win a single state in the south. McCain will win NY. Big guns like Rudy,Koch, Bloomberg & Pataki will campaign for him and he will win the state despite those stupid polls you speak of. Hillary will stand back and laugh because she will be the nominee next time around even if by some miracle Obama wins. Obama will fuck it up so bad, he will lose the primary to the Hildabeast in 2012. Changes made by Obama will === lost hope by the Democratic voters in the primaries.

I guess you are such a partisan prick you overlooked my comment about the polls getting it wrong regarding the Democrats taking over the Senate in the last election.

Go to Vegas, put your money where your mouth is on Obama and you will be broke. McCain is going to whip the magic negro like a red headed stepchild. It's going to be a blow out. Independents and Mexicans are going to vote for McCain in record numbers.

I've posted this on about 10 forums already across the net, you might be famous lacarnut!

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 03:54 PM
I've posted this on about 10 forums already across the net, you might be famous lacarnut!

Good, and if people did not think you are a dumb ass, you just proved it. MI is in the south, Bwwaaaa. You and Obama have something in common. He does not know how many states in the union, and you think Michigan is in the south. Morons both of you.

Molon Labe
06-17-2008, 04:03 PM
Polls dont predict, you can use models and projections to get a grasp of what might happen but polls are just a snapshot. I'm fully aware of this, but to discard them as worthless simply because you don't like what they're indicating is really pathetic.

Pathetic?...... as in your suggesting 5 months before a national election that you can revel in your "victory" based on the polling and projections you site?
You need to read a bit on projection history as predictors....and remember, I'm not a McCain supporter either.

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 04:49 PM
Good, and if people did not think you are a dumb ass, you just proved it. MI is in the south, Bwwaaaa. You and Obama have something in common. He does not know how many states in the union, and you think Michigan is in the south. Morons both of you.

McCain is still losing in MS, I made a typo....

Penguins Fan
06-17-2008, 05:01 PM
I don't like either candidate, but Wacky Baracky is significantly more dangerous.

Nobody knows who will win right now.

Nobody.

Teetop
06-17-2008, 05:21 PM
I don't like either candidate, but Wacky Baracky is significantly more dangerous.

Nobody knows who will win right now.

Nobody.


We're screwed '08. (http://www.werescrewed08.com/images/We're%20Screwed%2008%20bumper%20sticker%)

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 07:35 PM
McCain is still losing in MS, I made a typo....

No, you are that dumb

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 07:36 PM
Hey lacarnut, do you want to make a point any time here or just keep acting like you're in the 7th grade? I already expect some witty one liner, because when somebody proves all the bullshit on this site wrong you guys just act like toddlers.

Zathras
06-17-2008, 07:43 PM
Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.

Heh heh, I remember people like you saying the same thing about Mondale and Carter's reelection runs. Both were up by double digits in the polls at this time in the cycle. Didn't work too well for them and once the truth comes out about just how unqualified SNObama is for the highest office in the land, the same will happen to him.

By the way, how do you like your crow prepared?

Eyelids
06-17-2008, 08:10 PM
You'll deny it until its over. Thats OK by me, the fall will only be harder.

Zathras
06-17-2008, 08:31 PM
You'll deny it until its over. Thats OK by me, the fall will only be harder.

Yawn...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....huh, did you say something liar? Oh, just the same Male Bovine Excrement that spews from your lying piehole every day...nothing important.

lacarnut
06-17-2008, 10:26 PM
Hey lacarnut, do you want to make a point any time here or just keep acting like you're in the 7th grade? I already expect some witty one liner, because when somebody proves all the bullshit on this site wrong you guys just act like toddlers.

It is very hard to read your dribble because English must be your second language plus your writing is autrocious. Is Ebonics your first?

Everytime you open your mouth, I am going to put my foot in it cause I enjoy making you whine and cry. You are the commie, racist and muslim lover but your worst trait is that your are a habitual LIAR. I have proved that you are a liar and you think it is funny. Eyelids is a discreidt to the black race.:eek::)

Speedy
06-18-2008, 12:48 AM
You'll deny it until its over. Thats OK by me, the fall will only be harder.

You are the one in denial. Obama's lead is slipping in Minnesota and nationally.


New poll numbers show Barack Obama’s lead over Johon McCain slipping among Minnesota voters. The exclusive 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS/SURVEY USA Poll shows Obama holding a one-point lead over McCain, with the margin of error at a statistical dead heat Tuesday. Just two weeks ago, Obama held a five-point lead in Minnesota. Nationally, it’s a slightly different story: A new ABC News poll has Obama ahead of McCain 48 to 42-percent. Obama’s lead is down a percentage point from one month ago.

Link (http://kstp.com/article/stories/S481147.shtml?cat=89)

There was no bounce, NONE from Clinton supporters after Hillary dropped out. You can look at individual polls of you can look at trends and things are not trending well for the Magic Negro. If his numbers are falling in Minnesota (the Berkley of the Midwest) he sure as hell is not going to make up those numbers in the South!

Eyelids
06-18-2008, 01:00 AM
Losing a point means absolutely nothing in a poll, thats the definition of statistical noise.

Oh and I refer you guys to the thread on latino voters, especially lacarnut.

Speedy
06-18-2008, 01:05 AM
Losing a point means absolutely nothing in a poll, thats the definition of statistical noise.

Oh and I refer you guys to the thread on latino voters, especially lacarnut.

I already posted on that thread. 20% is not a disaster for McCain or the Republicans since it is what they usually get nationally in Presidential elections anyway.

As I posted before, one poll means nothing, but what is the trend for Obama in the polls? His lead in Minnesota evaporated, what happened there? Where is the bounce from the Hillary supporters?

Zathras
06-18-2008, 01:08 AM
Losing a point means absolutely nothing in a poll, thats the definition of statistical noise.

Heh heh, denial isn't just a river in Egypt. Losing a point now, this early in the process, is just the start of Obama's slide to a loss


Oh and I refer you guys to the thread on latino voters, especially lacarnut.

Oh you mean that thread that mentioned nothing in the data about Latino voters?

nightflight
06-18-2008, 01:48 AM
The only poll that counts is the one on election day. Many people will claim to support Obama because they genuinely want to prove they are not "racist". But behind the curtain of the polling booth will be a different story.

AmPat
06-18-2008, 07:06 AM
[QUOTE=lacarnut;9606]It is very hard to read your dribble because English must be your second language plus your writing is autrocious. Is Ebonics your first?
Did you mean "drivel," or was that a typo?


Eyelids is a discreidt to the black race.:eek::)
Was this also a typo?

And Obama cant win the South?
Most recent Rasmussen poll of MI has Obama up by 3.
McCain is still comfortably ahead in LA, but over the past 2 months his lead has been cut in half.
Missouri is a tie, there are two recent polls with McCain by 1 and 2 percent and a third with Obama by 3. Again, statistical noise.
So Michigan was a typo. Do you consider Missouri a southern State or was that another typo?


Its over. Obama is your next president, better start cozying up to that.
Correct, "over" for the USA as we know it. If this pretender is somehow elected he will make Jimmah Cartah look like the Reagan of the DIMoRAT Party.

biccat
06-18-2008, 09:43 AM
Why is there even a discussion in this thread? It's been well established that Eyelids is a racist bastard who doesn't care about facts, and is willing to lie to try to gain internet points. Considering his ongoing contempt for people born the wrong color and those who choose to serve in the US military, I'm surprised he has lasted this long. Fortunately, once he gets out of the sheltered environment of college, someone will probably make him defend his views, and he'll reveal himself for the angry little pissant that he is.

Consider also that http://www.270towin.com/ counts 174 for McCain and 185 for Obama, and since the messiah has no intentions to campaign in Florida or Ohio, that makes the score 221 for McCain and 185 for Obama. McCain is off to an early lead and only has to work for 50 points. Obama needs 90 points, and he isn't willing to fight in battleground states for those. He's a typical democrat, run away from a fight and hope to win anyway. :rolleyes:

InspiredHome
06-18-2008, 10:01 AM
About the only place to go Democrat in Colorado is the People's Republic of Boulder.

vetwife
06-18-2008, 10:03 AM
Do most of the Mccain voters base their vote on policy or predjudice?

InspiredHome
06-18-2008, 10:08 AM
Policy of course. I could care less if a candidate was purple with yellow polka dots. Though of course I may not vote McCain. Principles of course.

lacarnut
06-18-2008, 10:18 AM
[QUOTE]
Did you mean "drivel," or was that a typo?




I must have been thinking about midnight basketball (dribble) in the hood.

AmPat
06-18-2008, 11:07 PM
Do most of the Mccain voters base their vote on policy or predjudice?

I see this theme throughout your posts. The same question should be asked of the Obama voters,,,,,,unless of course there is BIAS in the question.:cool:

lacarnut
06-18-2008, 11:19 PM
I see this theme throughout your posts. The same question should be asked of the Obama voters,,,,,,unless of course there is BIAS in the question.:cool:

Well said. I think more whites will cross over on a percentage wide basis to Obama's side than I do blacks crossing over to vote for McCain.

There will always be people who vote for their own race; it cuts both ways but I think conservatives are less bias in that respect.

Elspeth
06-19-2008, 02:07 AM
Why is there even a discussion in this thread? It's been well established that Eyelids is a racist bastard who doesn't care about facts, and is willing to lie to try to gain internet points. Considering his ongoing contempt for people born the wrong color and those who choose to serve in the US military, I'm surprised he has lasted this long. Fortunately, once he gets out of the sheltered environment of college, someone will probably make him defend his views, and he'll reveal himself for the angry little pissant that he is.



Actually, he'll just reveal how little he was taught. The college grads these days are a frightening lot. They don't really think. They are the product of "self-esteem" education, which taught them to feel good about themselves and not much else.

There is precedent for this: back in the 1980s, when Canada went bi-lingual ed for everyone (Canadian French and English), studies were performed on kids throughout the process. When the kids graduated from high school, they got high marks on their self esteem, and they gave themselves high marks on their own ability in the other language they were required to take. However, when they were actually tested, it turned out that these kids really didn't know the language accurately enough to be able to survive outside of school. The English kids learning French, for example, gave themselves high marks for their own ability, but were making such basic elementary errors (nous avons arrive' instead of nous sommes arrives) that it interfered with understanding. Their self esteem was 30-40% higher than their actual ability.

That is what we are seeing now in American education: High self esteem, low ability.

AmPat
06-19-2008, 02:08 AM
Well said. I think more whites will cross over on a percentage wide basis to Obama's side than I do blacks crossing over to vote for McCain.

There will always be people who vote for their own race; it cuts both ways but I think conservatives are less bias in that respect.

Thanks. I guess I'm just fed-up with White guilt. White people have every right------and DUTY, to examine the candidates regardless of race or gender.

For some strange reason the general assumption is that White voters are to be scrutinized for their reason for voting or not voting for a Black candidate yet Blacks will vote in the 80-90% range along racial lines for Obama with immunity. :cool:

Elspeth
06-19-2008, 02:11 AM
Thanks. I guess I'm just fed-up with White guilt. White people have every right------and DUTY, to examine the candidates regardless of race or gender.

For some strange reason the general assumption is that White voters are to be scrutinized for their reason for voting or not voting for a Black candidate yet Blacks will vote in the 80-90% range along racial lines for Obama with immunity. :cool:

Yeah, I've given up on that guilt. I don't think it is constructive for either race.