Rum Knee is leading by 2 points!
Rum Knee is leading by 2 points!
I still do not believe it's going to be as close an election as Team OMG (Obama Media Group) is attempting to make us believe. 1980 anyone.
Remember the first Black US president could never have been elected if it wasn't for white voters but he sure can be unelected.
Gallup is showing Obama to have regained his 3 point lead, this is kind of strange but perhaps the same branch of government that gives the unemployment numbers are helping them with the polling.
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night:
Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.
Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That's terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion. He still has some personal advantages over Romney - even though they are all much diminished. Obama still has an edge on Medicare, scores much higher on relating to ordinary people, is ahead on foreign policy, and on being moderate, consistent and honest (only 14 percent of swing voters believe Romney is honest). But on the core issues of the economy and the deficit, Romney is now kicking the president's ass:
By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.... Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points. In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney).
Lies work when they are unrebutted live on stage. And momentum counts at this point in the election.
Now look at Pew's question as to who would help the middle class the most:
Look: I'm trying to rally some morale, but I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week - throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does. How do you erase that imprinted first image from public consciousness: a president incapable of making a single argument or even a halfway decent closing statement? And after Romney's convincing Etch-A-Sketch, convincing because Obama was incapable of exposing it, Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era.
How can Obama come back? By ensuring people know that Romney was and is a shameless liar and opportunist? That doesn't work for a sitting president. He always needed a clear positive proposal - tax reform, a Grand Bargain on S-B lines - as well as a sterling defense of his admirable record. Bill Clinton did the former for him. Everyone imaginable did what they could for him. And his response? Well, let's look back a bit:
With President Obama holed up in a Nevada resort for debate practice, things can get pretty boring on the White House beat right now. Pretty boring for Obama too, apparently. "Basically they're keeping me indoors all the time," Obama told a supporter on the phone during a visit to a Las Vegas area field office. "It's a drag," he added. "They're making me do my homework."
Too arrogant to take a core campaign responsibility seriously. Too arrogant to give his supporters what they deserve. If he now came out and said he supports Simpson-Bowles in its entirety, it would look desperate, but now that Romney has junked every proposal he ever told his base, and we're in mid-October, it's Obama's only chance on the economy.
Or maybe, just maybe, Obama can regain our trust and confidence somehow in the next debate. Maybe he can begin to give us a positive vision of what he wants to do (amazing that it's October and some of us are still trying to help him, but he cannot). Maybe if Romney can turn this whole campaign around in 90 minutes, Obama can now do the same. But I doubt it. A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves.
I've never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. Gore was better in his first debate - and he threw a solid lead into the trash that night. Even Bush was better in 2004 than Obama last week. Even Reagan's meandering mess in 1984 was better - and he had approaching Alzheimer's to blame.
I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover. I'm not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We're back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama's vanity is at stake.
Hang in there, it won't be long now.
I hope they manage to throw Hillary under the bus with this Libya thing. Her and Bill will go ballistic and it will be bye-bye Barry. Not in the Hoffa way but the "what did that motherf'er just say". :biggrin-new:
Some nitwit on Current TV said the most important thing about the vice presidential debate is that Joe Biden made himself the front runner for 2016 and the Democratic nomination in 2016 is his no matter what happens in this election. HUH???
Fast forward to the 1:35 mark. I don't recommend watching the entire thing:
2) Could we (R's) really be that lucky? Please let DopeyJoe be the guy in 2016. Romney won't even have to campaign for his second term.
George Herbert Walker Obama
Andrew Ferguson, campaign veteran
Nov 5, 2012, Vol. 18, No. 08 • By ANDREW FERGUSON
The news readers from NPR were mum-mum-mumbling in the background the other morning as I was putt-putt-puttering around the house when . . . all of a sudden . . . running counter to every fiber of my being . . . pulling against my every natural inclination . . . I began to pay attention! President Obama, one of the news readers said, was giving a speech in the Midwest to road-test a new theme for the campaign’s final weeks: “trust.”
George Herbert Walker Obama
“There’s no more serious issue in a presidential campaign than trust,” the president said. “Trust matters!” The Midwesterners cheered.
At these words my attention loosened and my mind, what’s left of it, flew backwards in time, 20 years almost to the day, and I was sitting in a room in the White House, in 1992, huddled with two other speechwriters around a little speaker set on a table in a high-ceilinged room. We were listening to a closed-circuit transmission from a campaign rally in the Midwest. A different president was desperately seeking reelection. This was President Bush—the first President Bush, I mean, the one that Democrats hated but later pretended to like after they decided they hated his son more.
We speechwriters were anxious that afternoon because—well, because presidential speechwriters are always anxious—but we were particularly anxious because at this rally in the Midwest, the president was going to road-test a new campaign theme.
One issue surpassed all others, President Bush said. “It’s called trust. When you get down to it, this election will be like every other. Trust matters!”
The Midwesterners cheered. We looked at each other across the tiny speaker, satisfied. We had our new theme! The president’s senior staff, at their daily meeting the next morning, gave the chief speechwriter a standing ovation.
It was only over the next several days that we began to suspect that the theme wasn’t working. Voters already knew President Bush was an honorable man. They liked the other guy better anyway. As a campaign issue, “trust” seemed an evasion, deflecting a more serious criticism that was thrown at us hourly, by the press and by voters themselves, in focus groups and surveys. The president, it was said, had no agenda.
Again our campaign leapt into action. Frantic phone calls were placed to federal agencies and cabinet departments: Who’s got an agenda? From the Department of Health and Human Services came a “health care reform”—something having to do with tax credits. The Education Department sent over scraps from an “education reform” that the president hadn’t been able to move through Congress; something with tax credits. And child care—a big issue in ’92—where the hell can we find a child-care policy? Somebody dug one up at Labor, where it had been buried a year earlier. A child-care tax credit.
The agenda was strung together and packaged in a booklet with glossy blue covers. The president could hold it up at rallies, with a look that said: No agenda, eh? What do you call this, smart guy? Chopped liver? The word renewal was testing very well with focus groups—better than reform, even—so our booklet got called Agenda for American Renewal. Millions of copies were mailed to voters. Perhaps you still have yours?
Me neither. Indeed, I hadn’t thought of the Agenda in years, until I saw President Obama on TV, at another campaign appearance. His opponents say he has no agenda for a second term. In response his campaign has produced a booklet. It has glossy blue covers and a title to make a focus group swoon: The New Economic Patriotism. It’s a hastily assembled ragbag, stuff from the agencies and cabinet departments. Three and a half million copies will be mailed to voters. The president waves it around at rallies. It looks suspiciously like chopped liver.
I got robocalled to death today. I think the folks are getting restless too. I made some calls for about an hour before I went out earlier. Only asking two questions but people want no part of it. Let's just say they're "grumpy" about their phones ringing and having to deal with politics. :biggrin-new:
Banging on doors and shoring up some last minute things before the big day. I had one lawn sign left and wanted to put it outside a union hall but I knew it wouldn't last the night and I didn't want to waste it.
Make sure you tell all your Dem friends to get out and vote on November 13th. Their country needs them.
I got robocalled today from the obama campaign begging me to vote for them. I hung up on them.