We'll have to agree to disagree then........regardless of your experience in the oil patch, as a scientist, I still maintain that "peak oil" is still bullshit.......Quote:
Sorry for disagreeing again doc but “peak oil” is entirely real, the difference is technology keeps moving the goal posts. When the Standard Trust was mighty, any oil over 250 feet down that would not flow large volumes for years was “non-productive”. Now we're producing from 30K down and an added 30K sideways in the same borehole along with 7 or 8 more right beside the first. We're producing from rock that has been our seal since the 1500’s. Someday we might even be able to go back to the US oilfields of the 30’s and 40’s and produce a significant amount of the 80% that we left behind the first 3 or 4 times around. None of that changes the fact that the world is using it up immeasurably faster that the earth can form new. The supply is limited.
The theory of "peak oil" states clearly that the worlds proven/recoverable reserves have reached their "peak" and are now declining, even as demand continues to rise. It's true that the Saudi fields (and others) are declining after a century of extraction, and they are the largest producer of "sweet crude" (requiring minimal refining for use), however, as you mentioned modern extraction techniques have greatly expanded reserves, the only factor is the cost of extraction and refining. It's also true that world demand is constantly expanding.
While demand often outstrips production, this is an economic parameter, not a scientific resource parameter, IOW "apples and oranges", not a valid part of the resource argument.
Using your own argument, extraction at levels below 250 feet was once the standard for "economical" production, and we are now drilling down to 30k in many offshore areas, and new sources are being mapped and confirmed every day.
The mitigating factor is POLITICS, and whether oil prospectors and developers are to be allowed to, in an unincumbered fashion, exploit each new discovery as it comes along. This is further compounded by government limits on development of new technology, to make new and more difficult sources "economical" to extract and refine.
The "Theory of Peak Oil", is entirely based on the assumption that the amount of recoverable liquid hydrocarbon in the earth's crust is "finite"........there is NO empirical evidence supporting this half-baked idea.....how the hell can the amount be "finite" if those espousing this bullshit theory don't have the foggiest idea of how large a total resource this really is, and whether or not it is "self generating", which is another whole new field of geological study. It's an insult to the scientific community to even refer to "peak oil" as a theory........it meets none of the criteria for such a title......none.
There is an emerging school of thought among geophysicists that liquid hydrocarbon compounds are constantly being "manufactured" at the top of the earth's mantle, and their relative density causes them to slowly rise, replenishing the available resouce in the crust. If this concept is correct, then the supply of liquid hydocarbon is essentially endless, dependent only on the ability to remove and utilize it.
If "peak oil" is correct, and the "supply is limited", I challenge you to expound on exactly how much there really is????
Short answer: You can't........THAT is what makes this concept bullshit......
I will agree however, that Pickens is an idiot...........