In this case, we simply do not know how McBride was conducting herself on Wafer’s porch. It is here that considerable degree of intoxication becomes relevant. Grossly drunk people are more likely to act in loud, aggressive and generally alarming fashion than are sober people. Strongly undercutting this leg of the AOJ triad for Wafer, however, are his original references to the shot being an accident. A person who fired at the perception of jeopardy would be expected to state as much, and not turn to accident for refuge.
In short, Wafer’s position is weak on “ability,” weak on “opportunity”, and weak on “jeopardy.” This is not a good argument for a reasonable perception of an imminent threat of death or grave bodily harm. Based on 780.972 alone, and the facts as currently understood, I would expect that State prosecutors have a strong probability of disproving self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt, as is their duty if they are to win a conviction.
New facts and evidence could well drive considerable changes to this analysis. As things currently stand, however, I expect Wafer to have a very challenging task in sustaining a defense of self-defense as justification for his use of deadly-force against Renisha McBride. Frankly, based on what is known, I strongly suspect that this shooting was, indeed, one of those unusual circumstances combining both initial steps of genuine self-defense, and ending with an accidental, unintended discharge. In that event, the appropriate penalty would be involuntary manslaughter (or equivalent).