Originally Posted by
Constitutionally Speaking
Newt is right except I don't blame speculators for much of the problem. The ONLY reason they are having any impact at all right now is because the demand is exceeding supply and any POSSIBLE interference with supply gives them a reason to panic/take advantage of that panic.
Currently world demand exceeds production by @ 1 million barrels per day by simply overcoming that shortage and by providing enough cushion in the supply/demand equation to head off the panic, prices would drop dramatically.
In 2004 we had a surplus of daily oil demand of @1 million barrels and prices were half what they are today. There is no reason to believe that producing a surplus of similar amounts would not result in a similar price now.
The liberals are able to fool many people by saying drilling in ANWR (OR in the Pacific, OR in the Gulf, OR in the Atlantic etc.) is not likely to affect prices significantly - citing administration studies that say the same. What they neglect to tell people is that ANWR (OR in the Pacific, OR in the Gulf, OR in the Atlantic, OR under the Rockies etc.) is not the question. The proper question is whether drilling in ANWR AND in the Pacific AND in the Gulf AND in the ATLANTIC AND in the Rockies etc., would affect prices. You see, by isolating each individual oil field, they minimize the potential impact. That is the way they fool people. It is similar to the power of water. A single drop or even a single thunderstorm does not have all that much power, but billions of rain drops and a combination of thunderstorms can have a devastating effect, having the power to destroy whole regions.
Individual oil fields may or may not have all that much impact by themselves, but combined with others, the power to bring down prices is awesome. The impact is not linear, it is exponential, each bit of extra oil supply over the amount of demand has more of an impact that those that came earlier - because each extra barrel of oil is not now just going to meet demand, it is going to offset potential disruptions. That would take the spectulators out of the equation WITHOUT harming the industries that are buying futures as a hedge against unknown price increases.