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  1. #1 Who will win the democrat nomination? 
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    538 democrat nomination prediction.

    Nate Silver and his 538 organization have a very interesting take on the ultimate democrat nominee. His algorithm is, of course, unpublished but takes into account many more factors besides raw poll numbers. I suspect that some of these other factors (which currently put Mayor Pete and Bloomberg as having little chance) are very politically incorrect. His odds are updated frequently and here are the current ones:

    Each candidate’s chances of winning more than half of pledged delegates:

    No one 2 in 5
    Sanders 1 in 3
    Biden 1 in 8
    Bloomberg 1 in 15
    Buttigeg 1 in 25
    Warren 1 in 50
    All others < 1 in 100

    each candidate’s chances of winning a plurality of pledged delegates:

    Sanders 1 in 2
    Biden 1 in 5
    Bloomberg 1 in 7
    Buttigieg 1 in 12
    Warren 1 in 30
    All others < 1 in 100

    His track record in the past is decent and better than most mainstream pollsters. He predicted a Clinton win in '16 but had a rising chance of a Trump victory in the final days. He was widely criticized by the left for this.

    Anyway, here is his site:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

    Last edited by old dog; 02-16-2020 at 01:40 PM.

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  2. #2  
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    Compare the above numbers with the RCP average:

    Sanders 2 in 5
    Bloomberg 1 in 3
    Butigieg 1 in 8
    Biden 1 in 10
    Clinton 1 in 17
    Klobuchar 1 in 20
    Warren 1 in 50
    Obama 1 in 100

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...20_nomination/

    Place your bets, folks.

    The United States Navy, fighting Moslem barbarians since 1801.

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    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
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  3. #3  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
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    First of which. Nate Silver is a fairly far left liberal, who pushed fake polls leading up to last elections. Remember, going into election night, Nate predicted Hillary had a 72% chance of winning it.

    Our forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.
    For other great Nate predictions, scroll threw his twitter feed from the election.

    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...34184864710657
    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...74951984812032
    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...62395364143105

    Just for a few.

    Far as the topic of the thread.

    At this point it's a full cluster-fuck.

    Nevada is looking as messy as Iowa turned out to be. Biden is now trailing.

    Then you look at Super Tuesday March 3rd. Holy hot mess. And Bloomberg is just making it worse for them. At this point in time, it may be too late to stop a brokered convention. And to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if not after Nevada, or S. Carolina, the DNCC changes their rules again and allow their super Dels to early vote messing up the process even more.
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  4. #4  
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    Yeah he's a liberal but his prediction was closer than most of them:

    Our final forecast, issued early Tuesday evening, had Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.1 By comparison, other models tracked by The New York Times put Trump’s odds at: 15 percent, 8 percent, 2 percent and less than 1 percent. And betting markets put Trump’s chances at just 18 percent at midnight on Tuesday, when Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast its votes.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-anyone-else/

    The far left Huffington Post was not happy with the trend of his predictions in the last week of the campaign:
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-...b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

    I honestly don't think he is trying to "spin" anything in a democrat only prediction process. He is trying to build his bona fides. As you may remember 2016 was a squeaker, a few hundred thousand votes strategically placed in the rust belt (which Hillary neglected) would have turned the election on it's head.

    The United States Navy, fighting Moslem barbarians since 1801.

    *****************************************
    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
    ******************************************
    Democrat evolution: JFK PUT A MAN ON THE MOON AND OBAMA PUT A MAN IN THE LADIES BATHROOM
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  5. #5  
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    Each candidate’s chances of winning more than half of pledged delegates:

    AS OF 2/16 ............. POST DEBATE 2/20

    No one 2 in 5 ............. 2 in 5
    Sanders 1 in 3 ............. 2 in 5
    Biden 1 in 8 ............. 1 in 9
    Bloomberg 1 in 15 ............. 1 in 12
    Buttigeg 1 in 25 ............. < 1 in 100
    Warren 1 in 50 ............. < 1 in 100
    All others < 1 in 100 ............. < 1 in 100

    each candidate’s chances of winning a plurality of pledged delegates:

    AS OF 2/16 ............. POST DEBATE 2/20

    Sanders 1 in 2 ............. 3 in 5
    Biden 1 in 5 ............. 1 in 5
    Bloomberg 1 in 7 ............. 1 in 6
    Buttigieg 1 in 12 ............. 1 in 30
    Warren 1 in 30 ............. 1 in 50
    All others < 1 in 100 ............. < 1 in 100

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

    The United States Navy, fighting Moslem barbarians since 1801.

    *****************************************
    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
    ******************************************
    Democrat evolution: JFK PUT A MAN ON THE MOON AND OBAMA PUT A MAN IN THE LADIES BATHROOM
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  6. #6  
    PORCUS STAPHUS ADMIN Rockntractor's Avatar
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    Bloomberg will buy the nomination and hand it to Hillary
    “No weapon formed against you shall prosper.” Isaiah 54:17
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  7. #7  
    PORCUS STAPHUS ADMIN Rockntractor's Avatar
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    Bloomberg gets the nomination, chooses Hillary for running mate and later resigns leaving Hillary as the candidate. Warren then comes in as VP.
    “No weapon formed against you shall prosper.” Isaiah 54:17
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  8. #8  
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rockntractor View Post
    Bloomberg gets the nomination, chooses Hillary for running mate and later resigns leaving Hillary as the candidate. Warren then comes in as VP.
    It's very possible considering that it is Anything-can-happen-day in the Mickey Mouse Club democrat party.

    Problem for the D's would be that the Berniebots will desert enmass and the African-American block will fracture .... Trump landslide!

    PS Warren tweeting this is her biggest fundraising day ever. She really needed that to stay in the race a little longer.
    Last edited by old dog; 02-20-2020 at 01:07 PM.

    The United States Navy, fighting Moslem barbarians since 1801.

    *****************************************
    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
    ******************************************
    Democrat evolution: JFK PUT A MAN ON THE MOON AND OBAMA PUT A MAN IN THE LADIES BATHROOM
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  9. #9  
    Power CUer noonwitch's Avatar
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    It's looking like Bernie is going to win it.
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  10. #10  
    Power CUer NJCardFan's Avatar
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    According to Real Clear Politics, Biden is crashing and crashing hard. Beginning of the year Biden had a 10 point lead over Bernie. As of 2/18 Bernie is now leading Biden by 10 points. What I don't get is after last night's performance how Bloomberg's chances improved.
    Progressivism is a bottomless pit of absurdity.
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