Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 54
  1. #21  
    Senior Member cadillac shark's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    6,141
    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    I do it as it serves a means to compare trends.

    You can get an early feel for how an election is going if you base it on elections in the past. Now I will and have stated that this year it is muddied on trends because Dems were heavily pushed to vote early by mail, while Reps were more driven to avoid mail voting.

    I've used this info for the last 4 presidential cycles and believe it or not, it does give some strong indications on how an election is going. When obama was running, you could clearly see the black vote was coming out in mass. Way up beyond normal trends.

    In 2016 you could then see that same black vote was almost half of normal trends. You could see in advance they were just sitting home. Not to mention states were showing higher Rep. voters then Dem.

    Now I haven't shared that black vote, but I have mentioned it from time to time in here. Right now it's along historic norms. Not high like when obama ran, but not depressed like when Hillary ran.
    Okay. It has logical merit.

    I'm too suspicious for my own good a lot of the time.
    To stop a war, or to start one. Whichever pays more.
     

  2. #22  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    9,599
    Quote Originally Posted by cadillac shark View Post
    Okay. It has logical merit.

    I'm too suspicious for my own good a lot of the time.
    This is a bit more of what I've talked about.

    Here is the total in person votes by party. Not mail in vote.

    Reporting states with party registration data: CO, FL, KS, KY, LA, MD, NC, NM, NV, SD
    Party Count Percent
    Democrats 2,275,823 37.3
    Republicans 2,458,115 40.3
    Minor 40,444 0.7
    No Party Affiliation 1,330,127 21.8
    TOTAL 6,104,509 100.0


    Note, Republican in person is way outpacing Dems. This is the norms. In fact, I think we might be up slightly from the average. Which is good news for us.
     

  3. #23  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    9,599
    Updated.

    Arizona is just coming in. Upside-down on the numbers where we should be. But more Rep. voters have requested ballots then Dems. Just that Dems have returned theirs at a higher rate.

    Florida is starting to look good. Seeing a rate of 2Dem/3Rep voters for in person. That holds we should take the state with ease. In fact this average is seen in many states.

    Noticing a few states this early that we are ether near average, or beating the average. This bolds very well for us.

    Penn is still not where I want to see it. But will admit it looks like the bulk of the numbers seem to be coming from their bluest districts.
     

  4. #24  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    9,599
    Updated.

    Arizona is a near tie right now. And getting tighter. With Republicans voting heavier in person, I would say this one is ours. Great signs here.

    Florida has also closed to an almost near tie. With Republicans voting in person at 70% more then Dems, this should be a won state with ease.

    Iowa judging by the numbers are a bit off in favor for Biden. But as I have said multiple times, don't trust the numbers showing a Dem lead.

    North Carolina is actually doing slightly better at this point then it did back in 2016. A good sign.

    Penn is still a mess. With Butler county a mess, this county went hard for Trump. But on the flip side, Phily is not coming out to support Biden. Their numbers are way down.

    Overall, even states that are typically blue, are showing Trump with improved numbers. He'll still lose those states. But if he's doing better even in those states, he should do better in swing and red states.
     

  5. #25  
    Senior Member enslaved1's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Dallas TX
    Posts
    2,752
    https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/10/30/...ceed-all-2016/

    More early votes cast in Texas than total in 2016. Don't know what direction the votes are going, but turnout is hopefully a good sign.

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
    Romans 6:18 You have been set free from sin and have become slaves to righteousness.
     

  6. #26  
    Senior Member Zathras's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    San Jose, California
    Posts
    8,708
    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    Updated.

    Arizona is a near tie right now. And getting tighter. With Republicans voting heavier in person, I would say this one is ours. Great signs here.

    Florida has also closed to an almost near tie. With Republicans voting in person at 70% more then Dems, this should be a won state with ease.

    Iowa judging by the numbers are a bit off in favor for Biden. But as I have said multiple times, don't trust the numbers showing a Dem lead.

    North Carolina is actually doing slightly better at this point then it did back in 2016. A good sign.

    Penn is still a mess. With Butler county a mess, this county went hard for Trump. But on the flip side, Phily is not coming out to support Biden. Their numbers are way down.

    Overall, even states that are typically blue, are showing Trump with improved numbers. He'll still lose those states. But if he's doing better even in those states, he should do better in swing and red states.
    I have a feeling that the majority of Republican voters will be voting in person on November 3rd.
    If racist dog whistles are meant to be only heard by racists, then it is quite interesting how progressives seem to be the only people who can hear them. - Leonydus Johnson

    Solve a man's problem with violence and help him for a day. Teach a man how to solve his problems with violence, help him for a lifetime - Belkar Bitterleaf

    Liberalism is what the stupid think is smart.
     

  7. #27  
    Power CUer NJCardFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    22,015
    There are several states that would seemingly be untouchable for Trump but don't be surprised if he carried a state like Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and he might not win NJ or NY but I expect him to overperform. Here's the deal too, I expect him to garner an unprecedented amount of blacks and Hispanics. I honestly believe he's going to get more than 50% of the black vote. The Blexit movement is real.
    Leftism is a bottomless pit of absurdity.
     

  8. #28  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    9,599
    Quote Originally Posted by NJCardFan View Post
    There are several states that would seemingly be untouchable for Trump but don't be surprised if he carried a state like Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and he might not win NJ or NY but I expect him to overperform. Here's the deal too, I expect him to garner an unprecedented amount of blacks and Hispanics. I honestly believe he's going to get more than 50% of the black vote. The Blexit movement is real.
    Little optimistic, but who knows. Be nice.

    I don't expect anywhere near 50%. But upper teens to even a low 20's% would be seismic in all future elections. It would definitely force Dems to try and figure out why they are breaking. And knowing how they "Figure" things out. It would be they're all uncle Toms, race traitors, Not real Blacks. Or worse. And that would drive a wedge between the black vote and the Dems if they went on and attack them.
     

  9. #29  
    Senior Ape Articulate_Ape's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    NJ, Exit Only
    Posts
    8,970
    I personally think all bets are off this go around. I think trump is going to win by the largest landslide in US history. I also expect some states to unexpectedly go to Trump (like NY). The silent majority is very pissed off at the Democrats right now and I think that is going to translate to a huge win for Trump.

    I could be wrong. There's a first time for everything.
    If you can read this thank a teacher. If you're reading this in English thank a soldier​.
     

  10. #30  
    Senior Member Zathras's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    San Jose, California
    Posts
    8,708
    Quote Originally Posted by Articulate_Ape View Post
    I personally think all bets are off this go around. I think trump is going to win by the largest landslide in US history. I also expect some states to unexpectedly go to Trump (like NY). The silent majority is very pissed off at the Democrats right now and I think that is going to translate to a huge win for Trump.

    I could be wrong. There's a first time for everything.
    I do believe it will be a victory for President Trump but it won't be bigger than President Reagan's 525-13 win in 1984.
    If racist dog whistles are meant to be only heard by racists, then it is quite interesting how progressives seem to be the only people who can hear them. - Leonydus Johnson

    Solve a man's problem with violence and help him for a day. Teach a man how to solve his problems with violence, help him for a lifetime - Belkar Bitterleaf

    Liberalism is what the stupid think is smart.
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •