Thread: McCain/Obama in Dead Heat
#1 McCain/Obama in Dead Heat07-11-2008, 07:08 PM
The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only 3 points. What a difference a few weeks can make.
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
JohnGuest07-11-2008, 07:16 PM
I sure hope the Libertarian base rejects Bob Barr. Not because I don't like Barr, but Barr isn't a Libertarian, he's a Republican and he knows it. If the Libertarians' own nominee is a republican, than hopefully LP voters will do the math and figure out that they are voting for a Republican either way so they might as well help out the one who can actually win. If the election is this close than the LP & CP can make a difference.
EyelidsGuest07-11-2008, 07:43 PM
I read this thing by somebody in the Reagan White House (I've forgotten who) who said that this was a predictable event. Human nature dictates that many Obama supporters will turn to themselves and say "Is this what we really want?" and then reevaluate thier decision. The same thing would happen to McCain if he was up 10% nationwide.
Its important to remember that you much rather be ahead and second-guessed than behind and scrambling to take advantage of a very short window.
EyelidsGuest07-11-2008, 07:45 PM
Obama is still beating statistical models too, so Im not sure this even worth discussing.
07-11-2008, 07:51 PM
But TimesOnline warns that only once in 20 years has the leader in the June polls gone on to win most votes at the election:
As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.
Mr Bush led the relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of ‘92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent.
June 1996 polls showed the incumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a more respectable 8.5 percent.
2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percent.
And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.This is bigger than presidential politics. This is a battle for America.
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