Thread: Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama?

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  1. #1 Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama? 
    Senior Member Perilloux's Avatar
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    June 1, 2008, 9:00 pm
    Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama?

    Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, specializes in polling of electoral battleground states, including Ohio and Florida. Click here for Brown’s full bio.

    In presidential campaigns, as on Wall Street, the phrase “this time is different” elicits skepticism among practitioners who may want to believe, but understand the lessons of history. Traders worry about stocks that rise too far, too fast, because they fear the dreaded market correction. Political pros question a recently successful strategy that does not jibe with the record of the past.

    Let’s be clear: Sen. Barack Obama may indeed be different from most politicians. Not only will he be the first African-American nominee of a major U.S. political party, but also he is truly gifted with rare communications skills and charisma. At the same time, he is betting the White House on the same Democratic demographic strategy that has given us a variety of Republican presidents over the past generations.

    Ever since reformers seized control of the Democratic Party in the 1970s, most of their presidential candidates - that is, the losing ones - have based their game plan not on winning more of the existing electorate but on increasing the pool with new voters who lean their way. Sen. Obama brought out millions of new voters — most black, white liberals and young — attracted by his persona, his calls for change and a voting record the nonpartisan National Journal rated as the most liberal in the U.S. Senate for 2007.

    ‘Eggheads and African-Americans’

    But he did relatively poorly among the white working-class, a more politically moderate group among whom the only two Democrats to win the White House since 1964, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, did well. Paul Begala, who helped manage Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign and is supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton this time, warned that the Obama victory was based on “eggheads and African-Americans” but not the much more numerous Joe-and-Jill six-pack voters.
     

  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by Perilloux View Post
    June 1, 2008, 9:00 pm
    Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama?

    Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, specializes in polling of electoral battleground states, including Ohio and Florida. Click here for Brown’s full bio.

    In presidential campaigns, as on Wall Street, the phrase “this time is different” elicits skepticism among practitioners who may want to believe, but understand the lessons of history. Traders worry about stocks that rise too far, too fast, because they fear the dreaded market correction. Political pros question a recently successful strategy that does not jibe with the record of the past.

    Let’s be clear: Sen. Barack Obama may indeed be different from most politicians. Not only will he be the first African-American nominee of a major U.S. political party, but also he is truly gifted with rare communications skills and charisma. At the same time, he is betting the White House on the same Democratic demographic strategy that has given us a variety of Republican presidents over the past generations.

    Ever since reformers seized control of the Democratic Party in the 1970s, most of their presidential candidates - that is, the losing ones - have based their game plan not on winning more of the existing electorate but on increasing the pool with new voters who lean their way. Sen. Obama brought out millions of new voters — most black, white liberals and young — attracted by his persona, his calls for change and a voting record the nonpartisan National Journal rated as the most liberal in the U.S. Senate for 2007.

    ‘Eggheads and African-Americans’

    But he did relatively poorly among the white working-class, a more politically moderate group among whom the only two Democrats to win the White House since 1964, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, did well. Paul Begala, who helped manage Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign and is supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton this time, warned that the Obama victory was based on “eggheads and African-Americans” but not the much more numerous Joe-and-Jill six-pack voters.
    I guess it is a mater of wait and see but as for myself I see Obama as just another politician who the leftwing media has been promoting and skimming over his mistakes or non policies while castigating republicans for ever perceived fault.
     

  3. #3  
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    A bigger hurdle for Obama is competing for the hispanic vote. Many black do not like hispanics and the feeling is mutual. Even though hispanics are heavily democratic, I think that McCain will get a bigger percentage of their votes than Bush did. Many hispanics just might sit out the election.
     

  4. #4  
    Eyelids
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    Quote Originally Posted by lacarnut View Post
    Many black do not like hispanics and the feeling is mutual.
    You're such a damn idiot.
     

  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyelids View Post
    You're such a damn idiot.
    Spend a weekend in east LA defending your position and if you're still alivecome back and post why you think he's wrong
    Last edited by rjas77; 06-02-2008 at 06:04 PM.
     

  6. #6  
    Eyelids
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    Quote Originally Posted by rjas77 View Post
    Spend a weekend in east LA defending your position and if you're still alivecome back and post why you think he's wrong
    The day I go to LA is the day I surrender my soul. That god-awful sprawl of hell shouldnt even count as part of the country.
     

  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyelids View Post
    You're such a damn idiot.
    Do you think Hispanics will vote in large numbers for Obama?
     

  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyelids View Post
    You're such a damn idiot.
    I worked 27 years at the LA Dept of Revenue and many of the blacks that I worked with had negative attitudes against hispanics. Also, they did not like the fags trying to associate themselves with MLK and civil rights. Experience is the best teacher,sonny boy.

    Listen up; you might learn something.
     

  9. #9  
    Eyelids
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    As a black man, who grew up in arguably the blackest city north of the Mason-Dixon line and generally knows a lot of black people I can tell you right now that blacks do not have a negative predisposition towards hispanics. Your notion is so wild and hilarious it kind of makes me laugh.
     

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