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  1. #21  
    Senior Member hampshirebrit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LogansPapa View Post
    Do either of you have any concept of the energy that's required to extract that oil from the ground?
    I hate to tell ya, but LP is right on this one.

    The ERoEI (energy return on energy invested) is a hard stop fact of life.

    The required energy investment to extract a barrel of crude from shale or tar is far, far higher than so called "conventional" resources. When oil bubbles up from the ground, one needs to do little more than provide collection, refining and transportation facilities to bring it to market.

    In such a scenario (rare these days) the ERoEI is as low as 1 barrel in to 100 plus out...in other words you will burn one barrel of crude to get 100 or more out...a good deal, but one hard to find these days.

    Extraction of the shale or tar sand types requires massive inputs of both natural gas and water, both of which are typically in short supply where shale and tar deposits exist. More bad news, the quality of the oil will not be nearly as good as the 1/100 type. Such oil that is recovered will be of lower grade (heavy/sour, not light/sweet), meaning that a lower volume of top distillates like gasoline and kerosene can be refined per 42 gallon barrel.

    Much the same applies to deep water discoveries. The cost of extraction for deep water is far higher than land-based deposits, and the oil quality for these new discoveries tends to be shit compared to what it used to be even a few years ago. Deep water drilling rig costs are going through the roof right now.

    There's plenty of oil out there.. but part of the reason your gas prices are going up and up is that the oil quality is crap now, and it will take a major investment to re-jig existing refineries to process crappy oil.
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  2. #22  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LogansPapa View Post
    I don’t think you realise those "break-throughs" needed to happen a decade or so ago to be on line and producing today. Like opening up all of Alaska to unlimited oil exploration, drilling and production: Where do you think the oil companies that do the work are going to sell their hard-won crude? Just in the United States - or on the world market? If you owned the company - would you sell to the highest bidder, or wrap yourself in the flag and give it away domestically. BTW, all of the prospective oil in Alaska will only make a minor blip - for a time - on the world market.
    Or in other words
    Drilling in Alaska is about 1/10 of what needs to happen in order for our current situation to rectify itself.

    That "drill now" petition is real good symbolism, but Gingrich and his crowd need to get a clue.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


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  3. #23  
    Senior Member LogansPapa's Avatar
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    Manganese nodules also cover the Pacific Ocean floor. Billions of tons of the stuff. Its there - like the methane on the moons of some gas giant planets. Just wont be economically practical to use it for about a hundred years - when we can actually get there.
    At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
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  4. #24  
    Senior Member hampshirebrit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Molon Labe View Post
    Or in other words
    Drilling in Alaska is about 1/10 of what needs to happen in order for our current situation to rectify itself.

    That "drill now" petition is real good symbolism, but Gingrich and his crowd need to get a clue.
    Exactly right.

    Drilling will delay a bad outcome, but only delay it, not cancel it.

    We need to develop scaleable alternatives for hydrocarbon based liquid transportation fuels, and now, or our way of life will come to a rapid and unpleasant halt, in less than five years time.

    To facilitate this, we need to drill, drill, drill to get the remaining cheap crap out of the ground, and use it wisely, to bring the alternatives online.

    We really need a new Manhattan Project to duck this bullet.
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  5. #25  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LogansPapa View Post
    Manganese nodules also cover the Pacific Ocean floor. Billions of tons of the stuff. Its there - like the methane on the moons of some gas giant planets. Just wont be economically practical to use it for about a hundred years - when we can actually get there.
    I saw a discovery channel story on this about drilling on the moon for a particular fuel. I don't remember it being Methane...somethings like Helium 3 or something. Maybe someone can clarify.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


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  6. #26  
    Senior Member LogansPapa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hampshirebrit View Post
    We really need a new Manhattan Project to duck this bullet.
    Well that, and invade Mexico.;)
    At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
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  7. #27  
    Senior Member LogansPapa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Molon Labe View Post
    I saw a discovery channel story on this about drilling on the moon for a particular fuel. I don't remember it being Methane...somethings like Helium 3 or something. Maybe someone can clarify.
    The process will release gases deposited on the moon's surface during billions of years of exposure to the solar wind and bombardment by asteroids and comets. Hydrogen is used to draw oxygen out of iron oxides in the regolith to form water. The water then can be electrolyzed to split it back into pure hydrogen and oxygen, a process tested earlier this year by engineers at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.

    http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=24863
    At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
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  8. #28  
    Senior Member hampshirebrit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LogansPapa View Post
    Well that, and invade Mexico.;)
    Not much point in that ... Cantarell has been in decline for 4 years now.

    You could consider invading Brazil on the off-chance that their new deep-water "super-giant" actually turns out to produce anything at all.
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  9. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by hampshirebrit View Post
    I hate to tell ya, but LP is right on this one.

    The ERoEI (energy return on energy invested) is a hard stop fact of life.

    The required energy investment to extract a barrel of crude from shale or tar is far, far higher than so called "conventional" resources. When oil bubbles up from the ground, one needs to do little more than provide collection, refining and transportation facilities to bring it to market.

    In such a scenario (rare these days) the ERoEI is as low as 1 barrel in to 100 plus out...in other words you will burn one barrel of crude to get 100 or more out...a good deal, but one hard to find these days.

    Extraction of the shale or tar sand types requires massive inputs of both natural gas and water, both of which are typically in short supply where shale and tar deposits exist. More bad news, the quality of the oil will not be nearly as good as the 1/100 type. Such oil that is recovered will be of lower grade (heavy/sour, not light/sweet), meaning that a lower volume of top distillates like gasoline and kerosene can be refined per 42 gallon barrel.

    Much the same applies to deep water discoveries. The cost of extraction for deep water is far higher than land-based deposits, and the oil quality for these new discoveries tends to be shit compared to what it used to be even a few years ago. Deep water drilling rig costs are going through the roof right now.

    There's plenty of oil out there.. but part of the reason your gas prices are going up and up is that the oil quality is crap now, and it will take a major investment to re-jig existing refineries to process crappy oil.
    In the USA, the bad news is that the largest refiner, Valero, is trying to sell 3 of their 17 refineries because their profit margins are being squeezed. Even if the price of a barrel of oil goes down significantly, the price at the pump will not be lowered that much. So, we can expect to see high gas prices for a long time unless a drastic development takes place. I used to own Valero stock until I found out that their profit margin was very slim.

    The Saudis are building refineries like crazy to export the finished product which will cause us to get double screwed. I doubt if any refineries, nukes, drilling in the offshore area will come to pass in the immediate future unless we get so fed up with the politicians in DC and vote to kick them out of office. The democraps are hell bent on raising taxes on gasoline along with little in the way of an energy policy.
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  10. #30  
    Senior Member LogansPapa's Avatar
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    Scaling back to a little peanut car is the best thing you can do to get though this rough time. Ride a bike, scooter or motorcycle in warm weather. Leave the SUV for vacations. Forget about flying to Disneyworld.

    The times they are a changing.

    Slow down - get you foot out of the accelerator and leave for work 15 minutes early. Plan your trips to the store - once a week and hunker down folks - this is going to be a big one. If your of the means to continue your present consumption - then the previously mentioned realities wont ever apply to you, but if it were me taking office in January - Id be calling for restricted sales of gasoline - for starters.
    At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
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