The idea that increased turnout by black voters will swing Republican states for Barack Obama just doesn't add up
The Associated Press moved a really interesting story Wednesday, chewing over the question of increased black voter turnout this November. It argued that Barack Obama's massive – well, check that, because we don't really know yet; assumed-to-be-massive – operations regarding voter registration and voter turnout could make him competitive in some southern states that have large black populations but have voted mostly Republican for decades.
We've all been reading about the Obama ground game. It's presumed to be on a scale like nothing we've ever seen. The Washington Post just reported that he's opening an unheard of 20 regional offices in the state of Virginia. There will be a breathtaking 150 paid staffers on the ground in Missouri, and they will operate out of 30 offices scattered around that state. And so on and so on and so on. I had just started to question whether he was really going to be able to raise enough money to keep paying all this rent and all these salaries, but I guess he just answered that.
The AP's Mike Baker writes that, based on an analysis of state-by-state margins in the last four presidential elections, "should Obama fulfil his pledge to elevate black participation by 30% … [it] would add nearly 1.8 million votes in 11 southern states, the analysis shows, enough to tip the balance in several that have been Republican strongholds."
To be sure, Barack Hussein Obama, Jr., the charismatic, messianic Magic Negro, also has the "white guilt" vote as well. And that may just be enough to eke out a plurality in many electoral districts.
But other than a pleasant speaking voice and an almost magnetic presence while on television, what experience and accomplishments can he show the world.
He has had a rather complimentary biographical sketch of his many glowing personality traits written for him. (I don't actually think he wrote it himself.)
He is the ultimate sock puppet.
A very illuminating analysis of some key states:
A simpler and, I think, more instructive way to look at this is just to examine the results from 2004. I've done some of my own ciphering, as they used to say down south, with regard to seven states – three genuine swing states, two possible swing states and two "tsunami" states, ie states that Obama will carry only if there's a real tidal wave for him that crests at just the right time.