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  1. #1 Making Sense of Poll Data from Massachusetts' Senate Race 
    An Adversary of Linda #'s
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    Washington was rather shocked by a Public Policy Polling (PPP) which showed Republican Scott Brown with a one point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley in the race for Ted Kennedy's former senate seat.

    If the poll is accurate, and a subsequent poll by the Boston Herald suggests it is, the internals of the polls ought to send every elected Democrat office holder screaming in terror.

    PPP shows Obama's approval rating in Massachusetts, one of the most Democrat-dominated states in the union at 44%.

    That would seem to suggest a 50-state sweep in 2012. But their home page is more in line with the sort of polls coming out of the mainstream press: Obama at 52% nationally.

    Could Obama's approval rating in Massachusetts really be eight percentage points lower than in the rest of the country?

    Or are polling firms only giving us honest results when there is an election about to demonstrate the electorate's true leanings?

    The PPP press release implies that one reason for their surprising find is that they are surveying likely voters, and that Brown's supporters are more likely to be counted that Coakley's.

    But their partisan breakdown doesn't bear that out. According to their likely voter model, 44% of those who turn out will be Democrats, whereas only 37% of voters in Massachusetts are registered as Democrats. And their poll asked registration, not how they voted; fully 39% indicated that they were Independents. Only 17% said they were Republicans.

    PPP points out that in their sample, Obama voters outnumbered McCain voters by 16%, as opposed to the 26% that Obama won by. But 7% couldn't remember... or didn' want to remember. Usually most of those respondents are those who regret their decision.

    Demographics internals don't make it seem any more likely that PPP's "likely voters" are more Republican than the general population, either. 40-65 year-olds seem very heavily represented in PPP's results, but Coakley actually won that group. And blacks, made up 9% of PPP's voters, versus just 7% of Massachusetts residents, but 20% of Democrats.

    The only way PPP's polls make any sense (without any duplicity) is if Obama for whatever reason is vastly more unpopular wherever elections are held, like Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

    This is possible... Perhaps as campaigns focus voters onto the issues, Democrats simply lack credibility.

    That doesn't augur well for 2010, when most statehouses, all house seats and 37 senate seats are up for elections.

    Polling data is available at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...A_45398436.pdf
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  2. #2  
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    There is a sense of urgency to wrap up the Health insurance bill by State of the Union so as to not lose the temporary Dem vote at play here.

    There is also talk they wont swear Brown in till its done.

    Stay tuned for further info as it comes up.
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  3. #3  
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    A couple thoughts:

    Mass voters will close ranks and vote DIM regardless the mountains of evidence of liberal (ideological) failure.

    They'll run a campaign based on sympathy and legacy of Vast Teddy. They'll lie about or ignore DIM failures for the last 40 years.
    They'll bring in the union Storm troopers and left wing media with the piles of misappropriated taxpayer funds now sitting in DIMocRAT coffers.
    They'll mobiilize Friends of Obama or ACORN if you prefer.
    They'll vote early and often, including the dead DIMS.

    Now for the swearing in. History will prove out only half of what I assert. If Martha wins, DIMS will swear her in on time or earlier. If Scott wins, DIMS will delay his swearing in. DIMS have been shoving crap down our throats quickly when it suits them. Watch for them to thwart the will of the American people yet again if Scott wins.
    Education without values, as useful as it is, seems rather to make man a more clever devil.
    C. S. Lewis
    Do not ever say that the desire to "do good" by force is a good motive. Neither power-lust nor stupidity are good motives. (Are you listening Barry)?:mad:
    Ayn Rand
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  4. #4  
    An Adversary of Linda #'s
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmPat View Post
    A couple thoughts:

    Mass voters will close ranks and vote DIM regardless the mountains of evidence of liberal (ideological) failure.

    They'll run a campaign based on sympathy and legacy of Vast Teddy. They'll lie about or ignore DIM failures for the last 40 years.
    They'll bring in the union Storm troopers and left wing media with the piles of misappropriated taxpayer funds now sitting in DIMocRAT coffers.
    They'll mobiilize Friends of Obama or ACORN if you prefer.
    They'll vote early and often, including the dead DIMS.

    Now for the swearing in. History will prove out only half of what I assert. If Martha wins, DIMS will swear her in on time or earlier. If Scott wins, DIMS will delay his swearing in. DIMS have been shoving crap down our throats quickly when it suits them. Watch for them to thwart the will of the American people yet again if Scott wins.
    I fully agree with you, them Dims Are All "Dirty Dogs' and need to go !
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by megimoo View Post
    I fully agree with you, them Dims Are All "Dirty Dogs' and need to go !
    I'm so sure of this I'm willing to have the mods lock it in to prevent tampering. DIMS are nothing if not predictable.
    Education without values, as useful as it is, seems rather to make man a more clever devil.
    C. S. Lewis
    Do not ever say that the desire to "do good" by force is a good motive. Neither power-lust nor stupidity are good motives. (Are you listening Barry)?:mad:
    Ayn Rand
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