Why Democrats Are Quitting: good numbers, great numbers and fantasic numbers
Ken Walsh is a retired Air Force Jag Officer.
The latest Cook Report has the 13th NY CD a “likely” Democrat hold. As one of the best, Cook knows about politics and elections around the country, but in this prediction he is wrong. The resistance to Freshman Democrat Michael McMahon is enormous, but obviously Cook doesn’t know this. A prediction like this begs the question: If a top firm like Cook is wrong in one district how about all of the others?
Given the following published survey data, the answer is very wrong.
The most reliable measure of what is likely to happen in a coming Congressional election are the “generic ballot” numbers which are derived from the simple question: Regardless of candidates will you be voting Democrat or Republican for Congress?” Democrats so consistently out poll Republicans on this question, that both sides allow a built in two point “handicap” for them. So if the “generic” is -2 for Republicans it is considered a tie.
Since June 28 Rasmussen’s generic ballot numbers have given Republicans at least a +2 over Democrats. In 1994 when Republicans swept to 54 victories and retook the House, the Democrat controlled Congress had an approval rating of 23% and Republicans ended with a final + 6. Today Rasmussen has Republicans +9 and the Congressional approval rating is 27%.
Another ominous indicator of Democrat disaster in November is the huge -20.7 right track/wrong track difference as reported by realclearpolitics.com
Recently the Leftist dailykos.com delivered perhaps the worst news for Democrats in its report on voter intensity – the level of joyful anticipation voters have as they look forward to voting.
The dailykos is saying this is what they found: Democrats are looking forward to voting by 56/40, Independent voters 65/23 but Republican Voters are clawing at the ground to vote by a score of 81/14
Is there any wonder that some incumbent Democrats are retiring and Democrats challenging incumbent Republicans are having second thoughts?